黄河流域地级城市土地集约利用效率与生态福利绩效的耦合性分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210108

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过构建包含时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿分析模型,对黄河流域2008—2017年57个城市的土地集约利用效率与生态福利绩效进行了测度,借助偏离系数的耦合度模型、马尔科夫链以及地理探测器等方法从市域和省域层面探究了两者耦合度的动态演进规律,并阐明了耦合机理与驱动机制。研究发现：（1）各城市的土地集约利用效率稳中有进,而生态福利绩效却呈波动下降的态势,两者的耦合度经历了“先降后升”的阶段性演变过程。（2）大部分省份耦合度的变异系数表现出扩大的倾向,尚有近1/5的城市属于低发展度低协调度的耦合类型;耦合度在空间上呈现出“东北—西南”走向的分异格局,重心整体向西南方向移动,其类型演变以大概率保持原有类型和向相邻的类型转化为主。（3）在驱动因子探测中,经济发展解释力>自然条件解释力>社会文明解释力;因子交互作用以双因子增强效应为主,非线性增强效应为辅,且社会因子是最主要的交互对象。

关键词: 黄河流域, 土地集约利用效率, 生态福利绩效, 耦合度, 地理探测器, 随机前沿

Abstract:

Correctly handling the relationship between land intensive use efficiency and ecological well-being performance is a special essential prerequisite for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the stochastic frontier analysis model in the form of a translog production function that includes a time trend variable, we measure the land intensive use efficiency and ecological welfare performance of 57 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017. With the help of a coupling model, distribution dynamic theory and geographical detector tools, in the perspective of cities and provincial levels, the dynamic evolution of the coupling degree between them is described, and the coupling mechanism and driving factors are clarified. The results show that: (1) The land intensive use efficiency of 57 cities has basically remained stable and improved slightly over time, provincial capital cities have gradually formed the first echelon of land intensive use efficiency, but the ecological welfare performance has shown a trend of declining fluctuations. The degree of coupling keeps a high level, taking 2012 as the boundary, it has undergone the evolution process of "decline-rise". (2) The degree of coupling development between cities is uneven, because the coefficient of variation of most provinces is increasing, nearly one fifth of the cities belong to the type of "low level coupling" with low development degree and low coordination degree, although more than half of the cities have achieved the relative synchronization between development and coordination. What's more, the degree of coupling generally presents a spatially differentiated pattern of "northeast-southwest", the center of gravity moves to the southwest as a whole, and its evolution is mainly to maintain the original type and transform to adjacent types. (3) As for the driving factors, the explanatory power of economic dimensions speak louder than that of the natural and social dimensions, that is to say, economies are the leading factors of coupling degree, while social factors and natural factors play roles of support and foundation respectively. The interaction between factors shows the two-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement effects, and social factors are the main interaction objects.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, land intensive use efficiency, ecological well-being performance, degree of coupling, geographical detector, stochastic frontier analysis

徐维祥, 徐志雄, 刘程军. 黄河流域地级城市土地集约利用效率与生态福利绩效的耦合性分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(1): 114-130.

XU Wei-xiang, XU Zhi-xiong, LIU Cheng-jun. Coupling analysis of land intensive use efficiency and ecological well-being performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(1): 114-130.

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负向耦合（失调衰退）		正向耦合（协调发展）
D值	耦合类型	D值	耦合类型
0.000~0.099	极度失调衰退	0.500~0.599	勉强协调发展
0.100~0.199	严重失调衰退	0.600~0.699	初级协调发展
0.200~0.299	中度失调衰退	0.700~0.799	中级协调发展
0.300~0.399	轻度失调衰退	0.800~0.899	良好协调发展
0.400~0.499	濒临失调衰退	0.900~1.000	优质协调发展

类别	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位
投入变量	投入强度	劳动从业	地均二三产业从业人员	人/km²
	投入强度	资本存量	地均城市固定资产存量	元/km²
	利用强度	建筑用地	平均建筑密度	%
		居住用地	居住用地占比	%
		道路设施	路网密度	km/km²
产出变量	经济效益	产业产值	地均二三产业产值	万元/km²
		零售总额	地均社会消费品零售额	万元/km²
		财政收入	地均财政收入	万元/km²

类别	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位
投入变量	环境污染	废水排放	人均废水排放量	t/人
		废气排放	人均废气（SO₂）排放量	t/人
		烟尘排放	人均烟粉尘排放量	t/人
	资源消耗	电力消耗	人均用电量	kW·h/人
		水资源消耗	人均用水量	t/人
		土地资源消耗	人均建设用地面积	km²/人
产出变量	福利水平	经济发展	人均GDP	元
		教育水平	平均受教育年限	年
		健康状况	万人卫生技术人员	人

时间段/年	类型	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2008—2012	4	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	5	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	7	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.429	0.286	0.286	0.000
	9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.118	0.853	0.029
	10	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.077	0.615	0.308
2013—2017	4	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	5	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000
	6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500	0.000	0.000
	7	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.111	0.333	0.444	0.111
	9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.059	0.706	0.235
	10	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.286	0.714

年份	椭圆面积/km²	椭圆周长/km	重心经度/°E	重心纬度°N	X轴标准差	Y轴标准差	旋转角/(°)
2008	536065.155	2702.850	111.155	36.812	326.676	522.372	88.170
2012	533069.369	2693.108	111.144	36.828	326.544	519.663	88.180
2017	532596.370	2697.379	111.123	36.799	324.456	522.544	87.766