皖西地区贫困空间分异的影响机制

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201208

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

区域性贫困是当前中国社会经济和区域发展不平衡的核心表现。以大别山连片特困区的皖西地区为例,以乡镇贫困发生率为贫困空间分异指标,以地理环境、经济环境、社会环境的20个因素为自变量,综合运用相关分析、空间回归、地理加权回归等方法,探究各因素对贫困空间分异的影响。结果表明：平均坡度、人均规模以上工业总产值、二三产业收入占纯收入比例、医疗卫生机构床位数是导致皖西地区贫困空间分异的核心因素,且其影响具有较强的空间异质性;地理机制、经济机制、社会机制是皖西地区贫困空间分异的主要机制,其中,地理环境是基础影响,经济环境的影响较强,社会环境影响广且大多与地理环境相关。研究结果对贫困干预的地理瞄准具有较强的借鉴意义。

Abstract:

Regional poverty has become the core problem of urban-rural development and income distribution imbalance in China. Taking the Western Anhui area of Dabie Mountains as a case study, based on the spatial heterogeneity pattern and dependence pattern of poverty on the township scale, selecting 20 factors from three dimensions of geographical environment, economic environment and social environment, this paper explores the influence of various factors on poverty spatial differentiation through analysis of correlation, multivariate linear regression, spatial regression and geographical weighted regression. The results show that: First, the basic pattern of spatial differentiation of poverty in Western Anhui shows that the poverty rate in the southwest and south parts of the study area is high, while that in the central and northeast regions is relatively low. The spatial dependence of poverty in Western Anhui is strong. Secondly, the results of Pearson correlation analysis show that the geographical environment, economic environment and social environment are the important factors that affect the spatial differentiation of poverty. Spatial regression and GWR regression analyses show that the average slope, the gross national product per capita of above-scale industries, the proportion of income derived from the secondary and tertiary industries to the net income, the number of beds in medical and health institutions are the core factors leading to the spatial differentiation of poverty, and their influence has strong spatial heterogeneity. Finally, geographical mechanism, economic mechanism and social mechanism are the three mechanisms of poverty spatial differentiation. The geographical environment plays a fundamental role in the formation of spatial differentiation of poverty, whose impact is profound and extensive. The economic environment and social environment, controlled by the geographical environment, affect each other. These two factors are not only an important manifestation of poverty, but also related with poverty. The results of this study can be used for reference to the geographical aim of poverty intervention.

Key words: poverty spatial differentiation, correlation analysis, spatial regression, geographic weighted regression, Western Anhui province

赵春雨, 温瑞霞, 杨娜. 皖西地区贫困空间分异的影响机制[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(12): 2916-2928.

ZHAO Chun-yu, WEN Rui-xia, YANG Na. The influence mechanism of poverty spatial differentiation in Western Anhui province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(12): 2916-2928.

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维度	指标分类	指标名称及编号	数据来源
地理环境	地形条件	平均海拔（X₁）、平均坡度（X₂）	地理空间数据云网站下载并提取
	区位条件	路网密度（X₃）	路网（包括高速、国道、省道、县道、乡镇村道）长度与面积的比值
	区位条件	干线路网衔接性（X₄）	各乡镇政府所在地到相应干线（包括国道、省道、高速公路）的距离
	土地利用	耕地面积比例（X₅）、建设用地面积比例（X₆）	根据六安市国土资源局和寿县国土资源局提供数据计算
经济环境	经济增长	人均农业总产值（X₇）	根据各县（区）统计局提供数据计算
	经济增长	人均规模以上工业总产值（X₈）	根据各县（区）统计局提供数据计算
	产业结构	二三产业从业人员比例（X₉）	根据《中国县域统计年鉴（乡镇卷）》（2016年）数据计算
	产业结构	二三产业收入占纯收入比例（X₁₀）	根据各县（区）统计局提供数据计算
社会环境	人口特征	乡村人口比例（X₁₁）、人口迁入率（X₁₂）	根据各县（区）公安局提供数据计算
	文化教育	普通中学在校学生比例（X₁₃）	根据各县（区）教育局提供数据计算
	文化教育	自然村到中心中学的平均距离（X₁₄）	ArcGIS软件中的临近度分析工具计算
	医疗卫生	医疗卫生机构床位数（X₁₅）	各县（区）卫计委提供
	医疗卫生	自然村到中心医院的平均距离（X₁₆）	ArcGIS软件中的临近度分析工具计算
	社会保障	城乡居民养老保险覆盖率（X₁₇）	根据各县（区）人社局提供数据计算
	社会保障	城乡居民医疗保险参保率（X₁₈）	根据各县（区）人社局提供数据计算
	基础设施	通宽带村数（X₁₉）	各县（区）统计局提供
	基础设施	商业设施的核密度（X₂₀）	ArcGIS软件中核密度估计法计算

	X	相关系数r	显著性水平t		X	相关系数r	显著性水平t
地理环境维度	X₁	0.631^**	0.000	社会环境维度	X₁₁	0.348^**	0.000
	X₂	0.648^**	0.000		X₁₂	-0.257^**	0.001
	X₃	-0.392^**	0.000		X₁₃	-0.254^**	0.001
	X₄	0.104	0.192		X₁₄	0.287^**	0.001
	X₅	-0.427^**	0.000		X₁₅	-0.358^**	0.000
	X₆	-0.470^**	0.000		X₁₆	0.259^**	0.001
经济环境维度	X₇	-0.140	0.079		X₁₇	0.007	0.932
	X₈	-0.311^**	0.000	X₁₈		0.281^**	0.000
	X₉	-0.172^*	0.030	X₁₉		-0.227^**	0.004
	X₁₀	-0.307^**	0.000	X₂₀		-0.355^**	0.000

解释变量	非标准化系数	标准误差	标准化系数	T	显著性	VIF
常数	15.917	1.710	—	9.310	0.000	—	R²(0.550) 调整后R²(0.538) Durbin-Watson (1.993) F统计量 (46.772) 显著性 (0.000)
平均坡度（X₂）	0.553	0.057	0.549	9.627	0.000	1.108
人均规模以上工业总产值（X₈）	-0.408	0.100	-0.225	-4.086	0.000	1.028
二三产业收入占纯收入比例（X₁₀）	-0.084	0.025	-0.187	-3.385	0.001	1.042
医疗卫生机构床位数（X₁₅）	-0.033	0.010	-0.187	-3.304	0.001	1.084

解释变量	系数	标准误差	z值	P值
常数	15.893	1.719	9.243	0.000	判定系数 (0.622) 对数似然值 (-427.103) 赤池信息准则 (864.205) 施瓦兹准则 (879.518)
平均坡度（X₂）	0.567	0.080	7.113	0.000
人均规模以上工业总产值（X₈）	-0.314	0.094	-3.334	0.001
二三产业收入占纯收入比例（X₁₀）	-0.095	0.025	-3.750	0.000
医疗卫生机构床位数（X₁₅）	-0.026	0.009	-2.993	0.003
LAMBDA	0.461	0.091	5.089	0.000