山东省农业多功能的时空演化特征与驱动机制分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201207

自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 2901-2915.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201207

山东省农业多功能的时空演化特征与驱动机制分析

刘建志¹(), 房艳刚¹^,²^,³(), 王如如¹

1.东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春 130024
2.东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室,长春 130024
3.东北师范大学中国东北研究院,长春 130024

收稿日期:2019-11-01 修回日期:2020-03-03 出版日期:2020-12-28 发布日期:2021-02-28
通讯作者: 房艳刚 E-mail:liujz027@nenu.edu.cn;fangyg578@nenu.edu.cn
作者简介:刘建志（1994- ）,男,山东枣庄人,博士研究生,研究方向为人文地理与乡村发展。E-mail: liujz027@nenu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL108)

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions in Shandong province

LIU Jian-zhi¹(), FANG Yan-gang¹^,²^,³(), WANG Ru-ru¹

1. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
2. Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
3. Institute for Northeast China Research, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Received:2019-11-01 Revised:2020-03-03 Online:2020-12-28 Published:2021-02-28
Contact: Yan-gang FANG E-mail:liujz027@nenu.edu.cn;fangyg578@nenu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业供给侧改革与乡村振兴背景下,深入挖掘各地区农业多种功能,统筹不同农业功能特征地域的协调发展,成为促进农业增收、实现农业可持续发展、保障食物安全的关键。农业多功能的演变受到区域农业资源禀赋与社会经济发展水平和阶段的复杂影响。以山东省为例,选取2004年、2011年、2017年三个时间截面,构建农业多功能评价指标体系,运用空间错位指数、回归分析等方法对县域农业多功能的时空演变规律与驱动机制进行分析。研究发现：（1）2004—2017年,山东省农业的农产品供给功能和经济发展功能分别呈先升后降和先降后升的增长态势,社会保障功能和生态服务功能分别呈持续下降和先降后升的下降趋势。（2）研究期内,农产品供给功能与生态服务功能对农业资源禀赋依赖较强,分别呈现出沿平原—丘陵—山地递减与递增的空间格局;经济发展功能与社会保障功能受社会经济发展水平和阶段影响较大,时空差异明显。（3）各驱动因子对于同一功能中不同要素的作用方向与强度存在差异,引发农业各功能结构的变化。基于功能视角提出山东省农业转型发展的路径选择与分区优化策略。

关键词: 多功能农业, 时空格局, 驱动机制, 空间错位指数, 山东省

Abstract:

Under the background of the agricultural supply-side structural reform and rural revitalization, it is critical to raise farmers' income, realize sustainable agricultural development and guarantee food security by developing multiple agriculture functions in various regions and coordinating the development of regions with different agricultural functional characteristics. The spatio-temporal differentiation of agricultural multifunctions results from the comprehensive effects of the agricultural resource endowments and the socio-economic development level and stages. This paper constructs an evaluation index system of agricultural multifunctions. Taking Shandong province as an example, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions at county level from 2004 to 2017 by using spatial mismatch, regression analysis and so on. The results are shown as follows: The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural functions in the province were significantly different during 2004-2017. Among them, the agricultural products supplying function showed a growth trend of increasing first and decreasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were mainly distributed in the "half-ring" area surrounding the south-central mountainous area of Shandong province; the economic development function showed a growth trend of decreasing first and increasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were transformed from traditional agricultural areas with high proportion of agriculture to modern agricultural areas with high agricultural output value and distinctive agricultural areas which have high-value agricultural products or prosperous correlative industries such as agricultural tourism; the social security function showed a downward trend, and its high-value areas were concentrated in the grain producing areas with large farmland area per labor and the mountainous-hilly areas with distinctive agriculture; the ecological service function showed a downward trend of decreasing first and increasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were mainly distributed in mountainous-hilly areas with good ecological basement. The impact of factors on different elements of the same function differed in direction and extent, which resulted in changes of agricultural functional structure. Finally, based on the functional perspective, this paper proposes the development paths and zoning optimization strategies for agriculture in Shandong province.

Key words: agricultural multifunctions, spatial-temporal evolution, driving mechanisms, spatial mismatch, Shandong province

刘建志, 房艳刚, 王如如. 山东省农业多功能的时空演化特征与驱动机制分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(12): 2901-2915.

LIU Jian-zhi, FANG Yan-gang, WANG Ru-ru. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions in Shandong province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(12): 2901-2915.

图/表 9

图1

表1

农业多功能的评价指标体系"

准则层	要素层	指标层	指标计算方法	权重	指标来源
农产品供给功能F₁	粮食供给能力F₁₁	粮食自给率/(kg/人)	粮食产量/区域总人口-400 kg/人	0.1355	房艳刚等^[17]
	粮食供给能力F₁₁	粮食单产/(t/hm²)	粮食产量/粮食播种面积	0.0286	鲁莎莎等^[5]
	非粮供给能力F₁₂	人均蔬菜产量/(kg/人)	蔬菜产量/区域总人口	0.2020
		人均水果产量/(kg/人)	水果产量/区域总人口	0.0994
		人均油料作物产量/(kg/人)	油料作物产量/区域总人口	0.1690
		人均肉蛋奶产量/(kg/人)	肉蛋奶产量/区域总人口	0.1172
		人均水产品产量/(kg/人)	水产品产量/区域总人口	0.1147
	供给稳定性F₁₃	有效灌溉面积占比/%	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积	0.1336	谭雪兰等^[18]
经济发展功能F₂	经济比例F₂₁	第一产业增加值占比/%	一产增加值/地区生产总值	0.3726	房艳刚等^[17]
	经济效益F₂₂	人均第一产业增加值/(元/人)	一产增加值/区域总人口	0.1408
	经济带动F₂₃	人均农林牧渔服务业增加值/(元/人)	农林牧渔服务业增加值/区域总人口	0.2300	房艳刚等^[17]
	经济带动F₂₃	县域农业旅游示范点个数/个	原国家旅游局发布的“全国工农业旅游示范点”名录与山东旅游政务网发布的“山东省工农业旅游示范点”名录,共计1096个农业旅游示范点	0.2566
社会保障功能F₃	就业机会F₃₁	乡村农业就业率/%	农林牧渔业从业人口/乡村从业人口	0.4234	张英男等^[25]
	就业机会F₃₁	地均机械总动力/(kW/hm²)	农业机械总动力/耕地面积	0.1685	张英男等^[25]
	就业收入F₃₂	劳均第一产业增加值/(元/人)	一产增加值/农林牧渔业从业人口	0.2590	谭雪兰等^[18]
	就业收入F₃₂	人均耕地面积/(hm²/人)	耕地面积/乡村总人口	0.1490	宋小青等^[26]
生态服务功能F₄	生态基底F₄₁	森林覆盖率/%	森林面积/行政区面积	0.3133	李梦桃等^[14]
		NDVI均值	区域全年NDVI均值	0.2328	彭建等^[27]
		农田生态系统多样性指数	-Σp_i ln(p_i),p_i表示各种农作物播种面积比例	0.2269	宋小青等^[26]
	环境质量F₄₂	化肥施用负荷/(kg/hm²)	化肥施用量/耕地面积	0.0972	彭建等^[27]
	环境质量F₄₂	农药施用负荷/(kg/hm²)	农药施用量/耕地面积	0.1298	彭建等^[27]

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表3

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要素层	2004年	2011年	2017年	要素层	2004年	2011年	2017年
粮食供给能力	0.1556	0.1966	0.2372	经济比例	0.1255	0.2009	0.3235
非粮供给能力	0.1463	0.1994	0.2367	经济效益	0.2867	0.2294	0.2042
供给稳定性	0.2609	0.2685	0.2818	经济带动	0.5021	0.3570	0.2196
就业机会	0.0157	0.0441	0.0713	生态基底	0.0515	0.0548	0.0546
就业收入	0.2230	0.2505	0.2890	环境质量	0.0978	0.1023	0.0974

影响因子与统计检验	F₁	F₁₁	F₁₂	F₁₃	F₂	F₂₁	F₂₂
lnDem	-0.1898^**	-0.4135^**	0.1665^**	-0.5242^**	-0.1084^**	-0.0617^**	-0.0984^**
lnPcy	0.5868^**	0.3915^**	0.4672^**	0.3774^**	0.2209^**	0.1002^**	0.2580^**
Pca	-0.0466	0.0442	0.0170	-0.2258^**	0.0964	0.0175	0.1126
lnDis	0.1497^**	0.1092^*	0.1366^**	0.0484	0.0340	0.0446	0.0906^*
lnPgdp	0.0121	0.1306	-0.1045	0.1323^*	-0.0757	-0.5823^**	0.4319^**
Sip	-0.0486	0.0234	-0.0935^*	0.0316	-0.4025^**	-0.3173^**	-0.1871^**
Ur	-0.1193^*	-0.2283^**	-0.0770	0.0363	-0.2913^**	-0.2448^**	-0.2205^**
lnPd	-0.3256^**	-0.0435	-0.4707^**	0.0762	-0.3715^**	-0.2111^**	-0.3810^**
Uur	0.1766^**	0.0378	0.2457^**	-0.0349	0.1643^*	-0.0175	0.1580^*
R²	0.6128	0.5334	0.4820	0.5616	0.5153	0.7817	0.6218
调整R²	0.6035	0.5222	0.4696	0.5511	0.5037	0.7765	0.6128
F	76.5800^**	45.4800^**	46.2100^**	77.7600^**	54.6500^**	96.0000^**	42.7400^**
影响因子与统计检验	F₂₃	F₃	F₃₁	F₃₂	F₄	F₄₁	F₄₂
lnDem	-0.0610	0.0318	0.0654	-0.0868^*	0.6928^**	0.6985^**	0.1986^**
lnPcy	0.1357^*	0.1965^**	0.1196^*	0.1863^**	-0.0922	0.0210	-0.3417^**
Pca	0.0902	—	—	—	0.1222	0.0390	0.2678^**
lnDis	-0.0302	0.0491	-0.0189	0.1707^**	-0.0446	-0.0448	-0.0131
lnPgdp	0.4295^**	-0.2198^**	-0.3849^**	0.4304^**	-0.2514^**	-0.1651^*	-0.3165^**
Sip	-0.1809^**	-0.2247^**	-0.1512^**	-0.1761^**	0.0429	0.0344	0.0369
Ur	-0.0851	0.2856^**	0.1285	0.3861^**	-0.2178^**	-0.2708^**	0.0789
lnPd	-0.1953^*	-0.7444^**	-0.5164^**	-0.5444^**	0.0565	0.0178	0.1246
Uur	0.2206^**	-0.1476^*	-0.1964^**	0.1309^*	0.1578^**	0.1015	0.2046^**
R²	0.4290	0.4783	0.4837	0.5933	0.5660	0.5692	0.3173
调整R²	0.4154	0.4672	0.4727	0.5847	0.5556	0.5589	0.3010
F	22.7000^**	31.5000^**	46.3200^**	50.4700^**	52.8000^**	53.2000^**	22.1800^**

山东省农业多功能的时空演化特征与驱动机制分析

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions in Shandong province

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