自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 895-907.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200412

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国汽车、船舶和家电中钢铁的存量与流量

宋璐璐1,2, 陈伟强1,2,3, 代敏1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院城市环境研究所,城市环境与健康重点实验室,厦门 361021;
    2. 厦门城市代谢重点实验室,厦门 361021;
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2019-02-26 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2020-04-28
  • 通讯作者: 陈伟强(1981- ),男,福建漳州人,博士,研究员,主要从事产业生态学、城市资源循环利用和循环经济研究。E-mail: wqchen@iue.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:宋璐璐(1985- ),女,山西长治人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事物质在全国或者城市尺度的存量与流量估算研究。E-mail: llsong@iue.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国地质调查局地质调查项目(121201103000150015); 中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDB-SSW-DQC012); 福建省科技计划对外合作项目(2018I0020)

Stocks and flows of steel in automobiles, vessels and household appliances in China

SONG Lu-lu1,2, CHEN Wei-qiang1,2,3, DAI Min1,2,3   

  1. 1. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, CAS, Xiamen 361021, Fujian, China;
    2. Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, Fujian, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-02-26 Online:2020-04-28 Published:2020-04-28

摘要: 存量是指社会经济系统中正在被使用的产品(或物质)的数量(或重量)。人类不断增长的物质需求推动了存量的消耗和更新,最终导致了物质在社会经济系统中的流动。本文利用存量驱动的动态物质流模型分析了1949—2050年中国汽车、船舶和家电行业终端产品中钢铁的存量、理论报废量和理论需求量的变化趋势。研究结果表明:汽车、船舶和家电中的钢铁理论需求量在2020—2030年之间达到峰值后呈现降低的趋势。三个行业终端产品中钢铁的理论报废量将在2040年之后逐渐超越理论需求量,并在2050年分别达到8300万t/年(汽车)、2700万t/年(船舶)和441万t/年(家电)。研究结果可为我国典型行业钢铁的可持续生产与利用提供政策启示,为有效推动循环经济的开展提供数据基础。

关键词: 钢铁, 理论报废量, 理论需求量, 在用存量, 典型行业

Abstract: Material flow analysis (MFA) characterizes and quantifies flows of materials into, out of, and through a socio-economic system of interest, balancing all flows by stocks. Stocks are the amount of concerned manufactured products and materials in active use. Flows refer to the inflow (demand) and outflow (scrap) of products or materials between different processes. Stocks are the driving force for the flows and circulation of substances in the socio-economic system. In this paper, we analyzed steel stocks and flows in automobiles, vessels, and household appliances in the past (1949-2018) and future (2019-2050) by using the dynamic stock-driven model. The results showed that: (1) Steel demand in three industries will be saturated or decreased after reaching its peak; (2) Steel scrap of the three industries will exceed demand after 2040, (3) There will be a large amount of steel scrap produced in automobiles (83 million tons/year), vessels (27 million tons/year), and household appliances (4 million tons/year) by 2050. The results of this paper are intended to provide policy implications for sustainable production and utilization of steel.

Key words: steel, inflow, typical industry, stocks, outflow