2000年以来黄河流域土地市场化时空格局演变及驱动因素

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200405

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于土地市场交易结构的视角,测算2000—2016年黄河流域104个地级以上城市一级土地市场化程度,综合利用Global Moran's I、G^*_i指数空间统计模型对其时空格局演变特征进行分析,运用灰色关联度分析模型探究土地市场化时空格局演变的主要驱动因素。研究发现：2000—2016年,黄河流域土地市场化水平表现出先持续上升后不断下降的阶段性变化特征,呈现了“东高西低”的空间分异格局。黄河流域土地市场化水平整体具有显著的空间自相关性,土地市场化热点区域以下游主要城市为核心,经历了先加速蔓延、后缓步收缩的时空演进历程。黄河流域土地市场化水平的时空格局演变主要由经济发展水平、产业结构升级、固定资产投资、政府财政收支比、外商直接投资以及区位条件等因素共同驱动,但受我国社会经济发展的阶段性影响,各因素在不同年份的影响程度存在显著的差异性。

关键词: 土地市场化, 时空格局演变, 驱动因素, 黄河流域

Abstract:

From the perspective of transaction structure, this paper measured the degree of the marketization of primary land market in 104 cities above the prefecture level of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2016, and analyzed its spatio-temporal pattern evolution by spatial statistical model such as the Global Moran's I and G^*_i index. Grey correlation analysis model was used to explore the main influencing factors of the spatial-temporal evolution of land marketization level in the study area. The results of this study showed that, from 2000 to 2016, the land marketization level of the Yellow River Basin continued to rise at first and then decreased constantly, presenting a pattern "high level in the east, but low level in the west", which showed significant periodic differences. The land marketization of the whole Yellow River Basin had significant spatial autocorrelation. After accelerated expansion, the hotspots area of land marketization centered on downstream major cities shrank slowly. Several factors, such as the level of economic development, upgrading of industrial structure, investment in fixed assets, government revenue and expenditure ratio, foreign direct investment, and location conditions, influenced the evolution of the spatial-temporal pattern of the land marketization level in the river basin. However, due to the impact of social and economic development of China, the influence degree of various factors significantly changed in different years.

Key words: land marketization, Yellow River Basin, spatio-temporal evolution, driving factor

宋洋, 朱道林, 张立新, 张晖. 2000年以来黄河流域土地市场化时空格局演变及驱动因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(4): 799-813.

SONG Yang, ZHU Dao-lin, ZHANG Li-xin, ZHANG Hui. Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land marketization in the Yellow River Basin since 2000[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(4): 799-813.

参考文献

[1] 朱道林. 土地增值收益分配悖论: 理论、实践与改革. 北京: 科学出版社, 2017: 3-5.
[ZHU D L. Land Appreciate Apportion in China: from Theory to Practice. Beijing: Science Press, 2017: 3-5.]
[2] 许实, 王庆日, 谭永忠, 等. 中国土地市场化程度的时空差异特征研究. 中国土地科学, 2012, 26(12): 27-34.
[XU S, WANG Q R, TAN Y Z, et al.Spatio-temporal difference of land marketization degree in China. China Land Sciences, 2012, 26(12): 27-34.]
[3] 钱忠好, 牟燕. 中国土地市场化改革: 制度变迁及其特征分析. 农业经济问题, 2013, 34(5): 20-26.
[QIAN Z H, MU Y.Land market reform in China: institutional change and character analysis. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2013, 34(5): 20-26.]
[4] 刘红梅, 刘超, 孙彦伟, 等. 建设用地减量化过程中的土地指标市场化机制研究: 以上海市为例. 中国土地科学, 2017, 31(2): 3-10.
[LIU H M, LIU C, SUN Y W, et al.Research on land quota market mechanism in the context of construction land reduction: Taking Shanghai city as an example. China Land Sciences, 2017, 31(2): 3-10.]
[5] 徐国鑫, 金晓斌, 周寅康. 基于DEA和空间自相关的我国土地市场化程度分析. 地理与地理信息科学, 2011, 27(5): 64-68.
[XU G X, JIN X B, ZHOU Y K.Analysis of land marketization in China based on DEA and Spatial Autocorrelation. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2011, 27(5): 64-68.]
[6] 赵雲泰, 黄贤金, 钟太洋, 等. 中国土地市场化测度方法与实证研究. 资源科学, 2012, 34(7): 1333-1339.
[ZHAO Y T, HUANG X J, ZHONG T Y, et al.Measurement methods of land marketization in China. Resources Science, 2012, 34(7): 1333-1339.]
[7] 王青, 陈志刚, 叶依广, 等. 中国土地市场化进程的时空特征分析. 资源科学, 2007, 29(1): 43-47.
[WANG Q, CHEN Z G, YE Y G, et al.Spatio-temporal pattern of land marketization in China. Resources Science, 2007, 29(1): 43-47.]
[8] 谭丹, 黄贤金, 陈志刚, 等. 中国土地市场化程度及其影响因素分析. 城市问题, 2008, (1): 14-18.
[TAN D, HUANG X J, CHEN Z G, et al.Marketing level of land in China and its influential factors. Urban Problems, 2008, (1): 14-18.]
[9] 王良健, 黄露赟, 弓文. 中国土地市场化程度及其影响因素分析. 中国土地科学, 2011, 25(8): 35-41.
[WANG L J, HUANG L Y, GONG W.Marketing level of land in China and its influential factors. China Land Sciences, 2011, 25(8): 35-41.]
[10] 李隆伟, 郭沛. 中国土地市场化水平及其影响因素研究: 基于2006-2011年全国31个省(市)面板数据的证据. 北京理工大学学报: 社会科学版, 2015, 17(4): 73-79.
[LI L W, GUO P.Marketing level of land in China and its influential factors: The evidence of panel data during 2006-2011 at 31 provinces. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology: Social Sciences Edition, 2015, 17(4): 73-79.]
[11] LIU T, CAO G, YAN Y, et al.Urban land marketization in China: Central policy, local initiative, and market mechanism. Land Use Policy, 2016, 57: 265-276.
[12] 王炯, 李清杰. 国有土地市场化供应水平的空间动态演变格局. 中国土地科学, 2012, 26(4): 29-35.
[WANG J, LI Q J.Spatial variation of the marketing level of state-owned land supply. China Land Sciences, 2012, 26(4): 29-35.]
[13] 于晓雷, 侯淑涛, 黄善林, 等. 东北地区土地市场化进程的时空差异特征研究: 基于东北振兴前后的视角. 干旱区资源与环境, 2015, 29(8): 27-32.
[YU X L, HOU S T, HUANG S L, et al.Spatio-temporal different patterns of land marketization in Northeast China before and after the revitalization. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2015, 29(8): 27-32.]
[14] 徐升艳, 陈杰, 赵刚. 土地出让市场化如何促进经济增长. 中国工业经济, 2018, 26(3): 44-61.
[XU S Y, CHEN J, ZHAO G.How does the land leasing marketization affect the economic growth. China Industrial Economics, 2018, 26(3): 44-61.]
[15] 李永乐, 吴群. 土地市场发育与农地非农化: 基于省际面板数据的估计与测算. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(11): 45-49.
[LI Y L, WU Q.Land market development and the farmland conversion for nonagricultural use: Assessment and calculation based on inter-provincial panel data. China Land Sciences, 2009, 23(11): 45-49.]
[16] CHEN Z, WANG Q, HUANG X.Can land market development suppress illegal land use in China?. Habitat International, 2015, 49: 403-412.
[17] 赵爱栋, 马贤磊, 曲福田. 市场化改革能提高中国工业用地利用效率吗?. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(3): 118-126.
[ZHAO A D, MA X L, QU F T.Does market reform increase industrial land use efficiency in China?. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(3): 118-126.]
[18] 高燕语, 钟太洋. 土地市场对城市建设用地扩张的影响: 基于285个城市面板数据的分析. 资源科学, 2016, 38(11): 2024-2036.
[GAO Y Y, ZHONG T Y.Impacts of land market development on urban expansion: An empirical analysis based on panel data for 285 cities in China. Resources Science, 2016, 38(11): 2024-2036.]
[19] 刘力豪, 陈志刚, 陈逸. 土地市场化改革对城市工业用地规模变化的影响: 基于国内46个大中城市的实证研究.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(9): 1179-1186.
[LIU L H, CHEN Z G, CHEN Y.Effects and mechanism of market-oriented land reforms on the scale of industrial land use: An empirical study on 46 cities in China. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(9): 1179-1186.]
[20] DING C.Land policy reform in China: Assessment and prospects. Land Use Policy, 2003, 20(2): 109-120.
[21] 张宁宁, 粟晓玲, 周云哲, 等. 黄河流域水资源承载力评价. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(8): 1759-1770.
[ZHANG N N, SU X L, ZHOU Y Z, et al.Water resources carrying capacity evaluation of the Yellow River Basin based on EFAST weight algorithm. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(8): 1759-1770.]
[22] 方创琳. 中国城市群形成发育的新格局及新趋向. 地理科学, 2011, 31(9): 1025-1034.
[FANG C L.New structure and new trend of formation and development of urban agglomerations in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(9): 1025-1034.]
[23] 王海江, 苗长虹, 乔旭宁. 黄河经济带中心城市服务能力的空间格局. 经济地理, 2017, 37(7): 33-39.
[WANG H J, MIAO C J, QIAO X N.Central cities external service capabilities spatial distribution of Yellow River Economic Belt. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(7): 33-39.]
[24] 何焱洲, 王成. 基于信息熵的乡村生产空间系统演化及其可持续发展能力. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(4): 815-828.
[HE Y Z, WANG C.The evolution and sustainable development capacity of rural production space system based on information entropy. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(4): 815-828.]
[25] 国土资源年鉴编辑部. 中国国土资源年鉴. 北京: 中华人民共和国自然资源部, 2001-2017.
[The Editorial Staff of China Land & Resources Almanac. China Land & Resources Almanac. Beijing: Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, 2001-2017.]
[26] 国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2017.
[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. Statistical Yearbook of China. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House, 2001-2017.]
[27] 国家统计局. 中国城市统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2017.
[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China City Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House, 2001-2017.]
[28] 中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部. 中国城市建设统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2017.
[Ministry of Housing and urban-rural development of the People's Republic of China. China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House, 2001-2017.]
[29] 钱忠好, 牟燕. 中国土地市场化水平: 测度及分析. 管理世界, 2012, (7): 67-75.
[QIAN Z H, MU Y.Land marketization level in China: measurement and analysis. Management World, 2012, (7): 67-75.]
[30] 张立新, 朱道林, 杜挺, 等. 基于DEA模型的城市建设用地利用效率时空格局演变及驱动因素. 资源科学, 2017, 39(3): 418-429.
[ZHANG L X, ZHU D L, DU T, et al.Spatiotemporal pattern evolvement and driving factors of urban construction land use efficiency using data envelopment analysis. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3): 418-429.]
[31] 刘艳军, 于会胜, 刘德刚, 等. 东北地区建设用地开发强度格局演变的空间分异机制. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 818-831.
[LIU Y J, YU H S, LIU D G, et al.Spatial differentiation mechanisms of the pattern evolution of construction land development intensity in Northeast China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 818-831.]
[32] 谢汀, 刘爱宁, 高雪松, 等. 基于信息熵和灰色关联的成都市建设用地结构时空变化及驱动力分析. 农业现代化研究, 2015, 36(1): 118-125.
[XIE T, LIU A N, GAO X S, et al.Temporal-spatial changes and driving forces of built-up land structure in Chengdu city based on information entropy and gray correlative degree analyses. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2015, 36(1): 118-125.]
[33] 牟燕, 钱忠好. 地方政府土地财政依赖一定会推高城市一级土地市场化水平吗?: 基于2003-2015年中国省级面板数据的检验. 中国土地科学, 2018, 32(10): 8-13.
[MU Y, QIAN Z H.Will the marketization level of primary land market be upgraded by land financial dependence?: Based on the test of a provincial-level panel data in China from 2003 to 2015. China Land Sciences, 2018, 32(10): 8-13.]
[34] 王青, 陈志刚, 叶依广, 等. 土地市场发展的经济驱动机制: 理论与实证分析. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2007, 18(3): 75-80.
[WANG Q, CHEN Z G, YE Y G, et al.The economic driving mechanism of land market development: A theoretical and empirical study. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2007, 18(3): 75-80.]
[35] TIAN L, MA W.Government intervention in city development of China: A tool of land supply. Land Use Policy, 2009, 26(3): 599-609.
[36] 黄金升, 陈利根, 张耀宇, 等. 中国工业地价与产业结构变迁互动效应研究. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 585-596.
[HUANG J S, CHEN L G, ZHANG Y Y, et al.The relationship between industrial land price and industrial structure change. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 585-596.]