中国“四化”建设对水足迹强度的影响分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200402

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用2000—2016年中国30省市（不包括香港、澳门、台湾、西藏四省区）的数据,构建四化指标体系,计算四化发展指数,进行地区四化水平评价,通过OLS和GMM回归模型考察四化发展对水足迹强度的影响,同时设置四化之间的交互项来识别四化指标之间的相互作用。主要结论如下：首先,从四化水平的地域发展差异上来看,中国四化水平总体上呈现出东部优于中部、中部优于西部的格局,水足迹强度的分布与之类似,说明四化水平发展与水足迹强度之间可能存在相关关系;其次,计量模型显示四化水平的提升对于水足迹强度的改善有积极影响,但每一化对于水足迹强度改善的影响大小不一;第三,以交互项衡量的四化相互作用对于水足迹强度的影响作用为正,表明四化发展对水足迹强度的改善效果逐渐趋于收敛。因此,优先提升落后地区的四化水平,以四化水平的提升推动水足迹强度的降低,能够有效降低我国总体水足迹强度水平。

关键词: 信息化, 农业现代化, 水资源, 四化交互, 工业化, 城镇化, 计量回归

Abstract: This paper adopts the data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2000 to 2016 (in which the data of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet are not collected), builds the "four- modernization" (industrialization, informatization, urbanization, agricultural modernization) index system, calculates the four-modernization index, and conducts regional four-modernization evaluation. Through the OLS and GMM regression models, the influence of the development of the four modernizations on the water footprint intensity is investigated, and the interaction between the four modernizations is set to identify the interaction between the four indicators. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: Firstly, from the perspective of regional development differences at the level of four modernizations, the level of China's four modernizations generally shows that the eastern region is better than the central region, and the central region is better than the western region. The distribution of water footprint intensity is similar. There may be a correlation between the level of development and the intensity of water footprint. Secondly, the econometric model shows that the improvement of the four modernizations has a positive impact on the improvement of water footprint intensity, but the impact of each modernization is different. Thirdly, the influence of the four-modernization interaction on the water footprint intensity is positive, indicating that the improvement effect of the four-modernization development on the water footprint intensity gradually converges. Therefore, priority is given to raising the level of the four modernizations in the backward areas. The improvement of the level of the four modernizations promotes the reduction of water footprint intensity and can effectively reduce the overall water footprint intensity level in China.

Key words: water resources, agricultural modernization, four-modernization interaction, quantitative regression, informatization, industrialization, urbanization

孙才志, 张灿灿, 郜晓雯. 中国“四化”建设对水足迹强度的影响分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(4): 767-778.

SUN Cai-zhi, ZHANG Can-can, GAO Xiao-wen. Impact of China's "four modernizations" on water footprint intensity[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(4): 767-778.

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