不同情景模式下雄安新区的水资源利用效率和节水潜力分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20191212

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雄安新区是千年大计、国家大事,水资源短缺与水体污染成为制约其发展的主要问题。从水资源利用效率及节水潜力视角出发,以深圳发展历程为标杆,结合情景分析与方向性距离函数等模型,展示到2035年不同情景的雄安水资源利用效率及节水潜力发展图景和路径。研究表明：从利用效率看,在基准、起步、建成情景下雄安呈现出由低效率区到较高效率区再到高效率区的变化态势。从节水潜力看,效率改善空间减小、技术落差比增加等表明雄安节水潜力得到充分挖掘。杜绝污水直排、积极发展污水处理技术、优化新区产业结构等是促使水资源利用效率提高的有效手段,是雄安实现绿色生态发展的重要保障。

关键词: 水资源利用效率, 节水潜力, 情景分析法, 方向性距离函数, 雄安新区

Abstract:

Xiong'an New Area is a millennium plan and a national event. Water shortage and water pollution have become the main problems which restrict its development. Different from the existing research on Xiong'an strategic development interpretation and resource profile description, this paper combines with scenario analysis and directional distance function models so as to show the water resources utilization efficiency and water saving potential development landscape and path of different scenarios in 2035 for the first time and it is innovatively based on the development of Shenzhen. The research shows that Xiong'an presents a change from low-efficiency zone to high-efficiency zone to high-efficiency zone in the Business as Usual, Starting Process and Construction Completion scenarios from the perspective of utilization efficiency. From the perspective of water saving potential, the reduction of efficiency improvement space and the increase in metatechnology ratios indicate that water saving potential of Xiong'an has been fully explored. Avoiding direct sewage discharge, developing sewage treatment technology actively and optimizing the industrial structure of the Xiong'an New Area are effective ways to promote the utilization efficiency of water resources, which is also an important guarantee for Xiong'an to realize green ecological development.

Key words: water resources utilization efficiency, water saving potential, scenario analysis method, directional distance function, Xiong'an New Area

赵志博, 赵领娣, 王亚薇, 袁田. 不同情景模式下雄安新区的水资源利用效率和节水潜力分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(12): 2629-2642.

ZHAO Zhi-bo, ZHAO Ling-di, WANG Ya-wei, YUAN Tian. Analysis of water resources utilization efficiency and water saving potential in Xiong'an New Area under different scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(12): 2629-2642.

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变量	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Capital	百万元	180352.2381	179348.1044	9005.6100	1536796.9000
Population	万人	130.1857	236.6863	14.1000	2415.2700
Consumption	万m³	16746.0664	32040.2727	481.4000	312224.4200
GDP	千万元	24683.2569	32634.8452	659.6530	251234.5000
Sewage	万m³	13886.3611	25700.9046	348.0000	230423.0000

情景名称	情景定义	发展展望
基准情景（BAU）	以2015年为基准年,分析水资源利用现状	以2015年的基础数据进行分析
起步情景（SP）	将2018-2023年定义为起步情景	借鉴深圳设立初期的关键指标^*预测雄安新区起步情景发展
建成情景（CC）	将2023-2035年定义为建成情景	借鉴深圳发展历程中关键指标^*预测雄安新区建成情景发展

城市（区）	基准情景		起步情景		建成情景
城市（区）	效率值	自然断点分区	效率值	自然断点分区	效率值	自然断点分区
北京	0.9791	IV	0.9643	V	0.7114	III
天津	0.7740	II	0.6795	II	0.6185	II
石家庄	0.7078	I	0.6580	II	0.6012	I
太原	0.7144	II	0.6111	I	0.5615	I
呼和浩特	0.8579	III	0.8192	IV	0.7360	III
沈阳	0.7543	II	0.9994	V	0.6259	II
长春	0.7362	II	0.6504	II	0.6059	II
哈尔滨	0.7447	II	0.6552	II	0.6085	II
上海	0.8791	III	0.8868	IV	0.6056	II
南京	0.7609	II	0.8923	IV	0.8361	IV
杭州	0.8110	III	0.6984	III	0.6026	I
合肥	0.7030	I	0.6451	II	0.5904	I
福州	0.9926	V	0.6836	II	0.6086	II
南昌	0.6862	I	0.6199	I	0.5719	I
济南	0.8136	III	0.7065	III	0.6401	II
郑州	0.9522	IV	0.9812	V	0.6211	II
武汉	0.9731	IV	0.9722	V	0.7081	III
长沙	0.7647	II	0.9510	V	0.7008	III
广州	0.9945	V	0.9022	IV	0.6231	II
南宁	0.6673	I	0.6291	II	0.5764	I
海口	0.6635	I	0.7628	III	1.0000	V
重庆	0.6925	I	0.6147	I	0.5834	I
成都	0.9732	IV	0.9680	V	0.6850	III
贵阳	0.6808	I	1.0000	V	1.0000	V
昆明	0.7399	II	0.7295	III	0.6012	I
西安	0.7562	II	0.7197	III	0.6274	II
兰州	0.6880	I	0.6436	II	0.5991	I
西宁	0.6525	I	0.5731	I	0.5567	I
银川	0.9897	V	0.6038	I	0.5673	I
乌鲁木齐	0.7368	II	0.8921	IV	1.0000	V
雄安	0.6869	I	0.8347	IV	1.0000	V

组别	GTE		MTE		MTR
组别	均值	标准差	均值	标准差	均值	标准差
东部—基准情景	0.8164	0.1101	0.6729	0.0707	0.8319	0.0850
东部—起步情景	0.8098	0.1204	0.6733	0.0893	0.8414	0.1122
东部—建成情景	0.8468	0.1560	0.7064	0.1370	0.8468	0.1364
中部—基准情景	0.7971	0.1152	0.6488	0.0512	0.8243	0.0882
中部—起步情景	0.7926	0.1309	0.6434	0.0593	0.8236	0.0816
中部—建成情景	0.8684	0.1495	0.6848	0.1158	0.8013	0.1244
西部—基准情景	0.6708	0.0863	0.6598	0.0757	0.9855	0.0284
西部—起步情景	0.7086	0.1448	0.6670	0.0946	0.9555	0.0911
西部—建成情景	0.7491	0.1662	0.7175	0.1495	0.9697	0.1253
东部整体	0.8243	0.1313	0.6842	0.1041	0.8400	0.1133
中部整体	0.8194	0.1371	0.6590	0.0828	0.8164	0.1004
西部整体	0.7095	0.1404	0.6814	0.1140	0.9702	0.0918
雄安—基准情景	0.5789		0.5586		0.9649
雄安—起步情景	0.6536		0.6270		0.9593
雄安—建成情景	1.0000		1.0000		1.0000