• 资源评价 •

### 中国粮食安全系统脆弱性评价及其驱动机制分析

1. 1. 南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,南昌 330031
2. 南昌大学经济与管理学院,南昌 330031
3. 南昌大学旅游学院,南昌 330031
4. 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海 200030
• 收稿日期:2019-01-30 修回日期:2019-05-11 出版日期:2019-08-28 发布日期:2019-08-28
• 作者简介:

作者简介：姚成胜（1977- ）,男,江西上饶人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事粮食安全、农业资源与环境评价研究。E-mail: yaochengsheng@163.com

• 基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目（17YJA790084）;国家自然科学基金项目（41761110）

### The vulnerability assessment and driving mechanism analysis of China's food security system

YAO Cheng-sheng1,2(), YIN Wei3, LI Zheng-tong4

1. 1. Center of Central China Economic Development Research, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047, China
2. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
3. School of Tourism, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
4. Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China;
• Received:2019-01-30 Revised:2019-05-11 Online:2019-08-28 Published:2019-08-28

Abstract:

China has attained lots of achievements in maintaining its food security in the past two decades. However, the food security system of China is still faced with great challenges and has its typical vulnerability characteristics. From the perspective of food security system, using the VSD (vulnerability acoping siagram) analysis framework, the evaluation index system of food security vulnerability in China was constructed in three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the statistical data in China from 1991 to 2015, we used the method of principal component analysis to examine the changing characteristics of exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index, and revealed the overall trend of food security system vulnerability and its driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The development of exposure index can be divided into rapid decrease stage (1991-2000) and slow decrease stage (2001-2015), and its annual average decline value is 0.121; the development of sensitivity index can be divided into rapid increase stage (1991-2003) and relatively steady stage (2004-2015), while the adaptive capacity index shows a continuous increasing trend during the period of 1991 to 2015, and its annual average increase value is 0.117. (2) The index of food security system vulnerability in China is overall on the decrease, which means that the state of food security in China has been greatly improved. And the changing process of the food security system vulnerability can be divided into three stages of 1991-1999, 2000-2003 and 2003-2015, the first and second stages happened in the age of lower food security level of merely eradicating hunger, and the second decrease stage was in the age of higher food security level of eating more diversified food. (3) The four factors which induced to the change of food security vulnerability in China are per capita GDP, urbanization rate, annual per capita disposable income of urban households (ACDIUH), and annual per capita disposable income of rural households (ACDIRH). In the second stage (2000-2015), the driving effect of the four factors was much smaller than that of the first stage (1991-1999), and the leading driving factor in the first stage was ACDIRH, while in the second stage, the leading driving factors were per capita GDP and ACDIUH. At last, some suggestions are proposed to lower China's food security vulnerability, such as to promote economic growth, increase urban and rural residents' income to eradicate poverty and propel new urbanization.