中国粮食安全系统脆弱性评价及其驱动机制分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190812

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从粮食安全系统的视角出发,运用VSD的脆弱性分析框架,从暴露性、敏感性、适应能力三个层面构建了中国粮食安全脆弱性评价指标体系,采用主成分分析方法对1991-2015年中国粮食安全脆弱性的暴露性、敏感性、适应能力进行定量分析,并探究了中国粮食安全脆弱性变化的总体趋势及其驱动因子。研究结果表明：（1）暴露性指数呈现出2阶段下降特征,年均下降0.121;敏感性指数呈现出快速上升和基本稳定的两阶段变化特征;适应能力指数则一直上升,年均提高0.117。（2）1991-2015年粮食安全系统脆弱性指数整体呈现下降趋势,表明中国粮食安水平有了明显提高;其变化过程可划分为1991-1999年、2000-2003年和2004-2015年三个阶段,第一、二阶段粮食安全水平的总体提高是基于“吃饱”水平上的提高,而第三阶段是基于“吃好”水平上的提高。（3）人均GDP、城镇化水平和城乡居民人均可支配收入四个因子共同驱动中国粮食安全脆弱性的变化,2000-2015年的第二阶段四因子对粮食安全脆弱性的驱动作用明显小于1991-1999的第一阶段,且第一驱动因子由第一阶段的农村居民人均可支配收入转变为第二阶段的人均GDP和城镇居民可支配收入。

关键词: 粮食安全, 脆弱性, 驱动机制, VSD框架, 中国

Abstract:

China has attained lots of achievements in maintaining its food security in the past two decades. However, the food security system of China is still faced with great challenges and has its typical vulnerability characteristics. From the perspective of food security system, using the VSD (vulnerability acoping siagram) analysis framework, the evaluation index system of food security vulnerability in China was constructed in three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the statistical data in China from 1991 to 2015, we used the method of principal component analysis to examine the changing characteristics of exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index, and revealed the overall trend of food security system vulnerability and its driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The development of exposure index can be divided into rapid decrease stage (1991-2000) and slow decrease stage (2001-2015), and its annual average decline value is 0.121; the development of sensitivity index can be divided into rapid increase stage (1991-2003) and relatively steady stage (2004-2015), while the adaptive capacity index shows a continuous increasing trend during the period of 1991 to 2015, and its annual average increase value is 0.117. (2) The index of food security system vulnerability in China is overall on the decrease, which means that the state of food security in China has been greatly improved. And the changing process of the food security system vulnerability can be divided into three stages of 1991-1999, 2000-2003 and 2003-2015, the first and second stages happened in the age of lower food security level of merely eradicating hunger, and the second decrease stage was in the age of higher food security level of eating more diversified food. (3) The four factors which induced to the change of food security vulnerability in China are per capita GDP, urbanization rate, annual per capita disposable income of urban households (ACDIUH), and annual per capita disposable income of rural households (ACDIRH). In the second stage (2000-2015), the driving effect of the four factors was much smaller than that of the first stage (1991-1999), and the leading driving factor in the first stage was ACDIRH, while in the second stage, the leading driving factors were per capita GDP and ACDIUH. At last, some suggestions are proposed to lower China's food security vulnerability, such as to promote economic growth, increase urban and rural residents' income to eradicate poverty and propel new urbanization.

Key words: food security, vulnerability, driving mechanism, VSD analysis framework, China

姚成胜, 殷伟, 李政通. 中国粮食安全系统脆弱性评价及其驱动机制分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(8): 1720-1734.

YAO Cheng-sheng, YIN Wei, LI Zheng-tong. The vulnerability assessment and driving mechanism analysis of China's food security system[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(8): 1720-1734.

图/表 5

表1

中国粮食安全脆弱性评价指标体系"

要素层	一级指标	单项指标	相关性	单位	指标计算/解释
暴露性	粮食生产条件	单位粮食播种面积劳动力（E₁）	+	人/hm²	粮食生产劳动力总量/粮食播种面积
		单位粮食播种面积用水量（E₂）	–	m³/hm²	粮食生产用水总量/粮食作物播种面积
		农作物成灾率（E₃）	+	%	反映粮食生产受灾害的影响程度
	粮食供给量与稳定性	表征粮食自给率（E₄）	–	%	粮食产量/(粮食产量+进口量–出口量）
	粮食获取能力和利用水平	粮食短缺程度（E₅）	+	kcal/人/天	达到规定标准所缺乏的能量数量
		粮食不足发生率（E₆）	+	%	未能满足健康生活的膳食需要的人口所占比例
		动物性蛋白质平均供应量（E₇）	–	g/人/天	每天人均摄入的动物性蛋白重量
		农村贫困发生率（E₈）	+	%	农村贫困人口/农村总人口
敏感性	粮食生产条件	农业生产资料价格指数（S₁）	+	%	反映一定时期内农业生产资料成本变动趋势和程度
		粮食作物播种面积所占比例（S₂）	–	%	粮食作物播种面积/农作物总播种面积
		非农产业产值比例（S₃）	–	%	二、三产业产值/国民经济总产值
	粮食供给量与稳定性	粮食净进口量（S₄）	+	万t	粮食进口量–粮食出口量
	粮食供给量与稳定性	人均粮食占有量（S₅）	–	kg	粮食产量/人口总量
	粮食获取能力和利用水平	粮食类居民消费价格指数（S₆）	+	%	反映粮食消费品价格变动趋势和程度
		恩格尔系数（S₇）	+	%	食品支出总额占个人消费支出总额的比例
		营养不良发生率（S₈）	+	%	营养不良人口/总人口
适应能力	粮食生产条件	财政支农支出（AC₁）	+	亿元	用于支持农业发展的财政支出
		单位粮食播种面积农业机械动力（AC₂）	+	kW/hm²	粮食生产农业机械总动力/粮食作物播种面积
		单位粮食播种面积化肥施用量（AC₃）	+	kg/hm²	粮食生产化肥施用量/粮食作物播种面积
		单位粮食播种面积农药施用量（AC₄）	+	kg/hm²	粮食生产农药施用量/粮食作物播种面积
		有效灌溉率（AC₅）	+	%	有效灌溉面积/耕地总面积
	粮食供给量与稳定性	粮食总产量波动率（AC₆）	–	%	（当年粮食产量-上年粮食产量）/上年粮食产量
	粮食获取能力和利用水平	农民非农业生产收入所占比例（AC₇）	+	%	农民非农业收入/农民总收入
		改良水源获取水平（AC₈）	+	%	获取改良水源人口/总人口
		改良卫生设施获取水平（AC₉）	+	%	获取改良卫生设施人口/总人口
		道路密集度（AC₁₀）	+	km/km²	每平方千米土地面积道路长度

表1

表2

暴露性、敏感性和适应能力子系统旋转后的因子载荷矩阵"

暴露性			敏感性			适应能力
单项指标	$F E 1$	$F E 2$	单项指标	$F S 1$	$F S 2$	单项指标	$F A C 1$	$F A C 2$
E₁	0.006	0.211	S₁	0.034	0.194	AC₁	0.093	0.116
E₂	-0.438	0.306	S₂	0.391	-0.252	AC₂	0.116	0.005
E₃	-0.325	0.548	S₃	-0.253	0.054	AC₃	0.123	-0.071
E₄	0.273	-0.503	S₄	0.285	-0.456	AC₄	0.125	-0.103
E₅	0.235	-0.054	S₅	-0.043	0.258	AC₅	0.117	0.002
E₆	0.415	-0.271	S₆	0.001	0.225	AC₆	-0.084	0.966
E₇	0.178	0.017	S₇	-0.283	0.092	AC₇	0.109	0.047
E₈	0.071	0.136	S₈	-0.137	-0.082	AC₈	0.122	-0.057
—	—	—	—	—	—	AC₉	0.124	-0.082
—	—	—	—	—	—	AC₁₀	0.104	0.084
特征值	6.842	0.783	—	6.240	1.462	—	8.584	1.009
贡献率	84.529	10.791	—	77.997	18.278	—	85.837	10.089
累计贡献率	84.529	95.320	—	77.997	96.275	—	85.837	95.926

表2

图1

图2

表3

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时段/年	主成分因子	非标准化系数	标准化系数	T统计量	Sig.
1991-1999	常数	1.102		15.727	0.000
1991-1999	F₁	-0.996	-0.982	-13.781	0.000
2000-2015	常数	-0.620		-9.501	0.000
2000-2015	F₂	-0.620	-0.928	-9.293	0.000
时段/年	R²	调整后R²	F	Sig.
1991-1999	0.964	0.959	189.920	0.000
2000-2015	0.861	0.851	86.364	0.000