基于空间聚类的中国东北气候分区及其气象干旱时间变化特征

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190809

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近50年来,中国东北地区干旱化趋势明显,越来越频繁的干旱事件对该区域人民的生产和生活造成了严重的影响。基于1961-2016年中国地面降水和气温月值0.5°×0.5°格点数据,利用空间系统聚类方法对中国东北进行气候分区,通过标准化降水指数探讨了中国东北各亚区气象干旱的时间演变规律,并结合小波功率谱和小波全谱分析了各亚区干旱的周期变化特征。结果表明：（1）空间上,可将东北地区分为8个气候亚区,即西辽河平原半干旱农牧区、吉辽东部山地湿润农林区、呼伦贝尔高原半干旱牧业区、东北中部半湿润—半干旱农牧区、黑吉东部山地湿润农林区、大兴安岭北部湿润林业区、呼伦贝尔—黑河湿润—半湿润农林区、三江平原湿润农业区;（2）不同亚区的干旱事件时间演变特征存在明显差异,但大致都经历了3个干旱时期：1960s后期、1970s中后期至1980s前期、1990s后期至2000s;2000-2010年间东北地区干旱发生频率和影响范围最大,尤其是中、西部;（3）不同亚区干旱变化主要存在11年和3~8年的显著周期,第一主周期差异明显。研究结果对于弄清楚中国东北各亚区特有的气候变化驱动因素、制定气候均质区域干旱监测计划和水资源的管理具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 气候分区, 气象干旱, 标准化降水指数, 空间系统聚类, 小波分析

Abstract:

In the past 50 years, an increasing number of drought events have greatly affected the production and life of the people in Northeast China (NEC). The climatic conditions and sensitivities vary greatly in NEC due to complex terrain, large geographical range across latitudes and longitudes and different weather system effects. So, NEC is used to explore traditional geographical boundaries for meteorological drought research. In the paper, climate regionalization is performed by spatial hierarchical cluster approach based on the gridded dataset of monthly precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° in China from 1961 to 2016. Then, standardized precipitation index is employed to explore the temporal evolution of drought events, and wavelet method is used to detect drought periodicity in each sub-climatic region of NEC. The results show that: (1) Spatially, NEC can be divided into eight sub-climatic regions, namely, semi-arid agro-pastoral areas in the West Liaohe Plain, humid agro-forestry areas in the eastern mountainous areas of Jilin and Liaoning provinces, semi-arid pastoral areas in Hulun Buir Plateau, semi-humid and semi-arid agro-pastoral areas in central Northeast China, humid agro-forestry areas in the eastern mountainous areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, humid forestry areas in the north of Da Hinggan, humid and semi-humid agro-forestry areas in Hulun Buir Plateau and Heihe, and humid agricultural areas in Sanjiang Plain. (2) There are obvious differences for the temporal evolution of drought events in different sub-climatic regions, but three obvious drought periods, namely, late 1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, and late 1990s to 2000s, can be found in each sub-region. The frequency and impact of droughts in NEC were the largest between 2000 and 2010, especially in the central and western parts of the study region. (3) There are significant drought periods of 11 years and 3-8 years in the eight sub-climatic regions of NEC, and the first main cycles of drought variation are not completely consistent. It is a very important step to divide a region into homogeneous sub-regions based on one or more climatic variables in climate studies. Therefore, the results of this paper have practical significance for identifying the drivers of climate variability specific to each sub-climatic region, establishing drought monitoring programs for climate homogeneous regions and managing water resources.

Key words: climate regionalization, meteorological drought, standardized precipitation index, spatial hierarchical cluster approach, wavelet analysis

李明, 王贵文, 柴旭荣, 胡炜霞, 张莲芝. 基于空间聚类的中国东北气候分区及其气象干旱时间变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(8): 1682-1693.

LI Ming, WANG Gui-wen, CHAI Xu-rong, HU Wei-xia, ZHANG Lian-zhi. Climate regionalization and temporal evolution of meteorological drought in Northeast China based on spatial clustering[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(8): 1682-1693.

图/表 8

图1

表1

图2

表2

表3

图3

图4

图5

参考文献 35

[1]	沈永平, 王国亚. IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5): 1068-1076.
	[SHEN Y P, WANG G Y.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(5): 1068-1076.]
[2]	孙永罡, 白人海, 谢安. 中国东北地区干旱趋势的年代际变化. 北京大学学报: 自然科学版, 2004, 40(5): 806-813.
	[SUN Y G, BAI R H, XIE A.Interdecadal variations of droughts in Northeastern China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2004, 40(5): 806-813.]
[3]	马建勇, 许吟隆, 潘婕. 基于SPI与相对湿润度指数的1961-2009年东北地区5-9月干旱趋势分析. 气象与环境学报, 2012, 28(3): 90-95.
	[MA J Y, XU Y L, PAN J.Drought tendency based on standardized precipitation index (SPI) and relative moisture index over Northeast China from May to September during 1961-2009. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(3): 90-95.]
[4]	邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强. 基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 371-378.
	[ZOU X K, REN G Y, ZHANG Q.Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 371-378.]
[5]	马柱国, 华丽娟, 任小波. 中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律. 地理学报, 2003, 58(s1): 69-74.
	[MA Z G, HUA L J, REN X B.The extrem dry/wet events in Northern China during recent 100 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(s1): 69-74.]
[6]	沈国强, 郑海峰, 雷振锋. 基于SPEI指数的1961-2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究. 生态学报, 2017, 37(17): 5882-5893.
	[SHEN G Q, ZHENG H F, LEI Z F.Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought (1961-2014) in Northeast China using a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(17): 5882-5893.]
[7]	孙力, 安刚, 丁立. 中国东北地区夏季旱涝的分析研究. 地理科学, 2002, 22(3): 311-316.
	[SUN L, AN G, DING L.The characteristics of summer drought and flood in Northeast Area of China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2002, 22(3): 311-316.]
[8]	孙滨峰, 赵红, 王效科. 基于标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)的东北干旱时空特征. 生态环境学报, 2015, 24(1): 22-28.
	[SUN B F, ZHAO H, WANG X K.Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China based on SPEI. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 24(1): 22-28.]
[9]	李明, 王贵文, 张莲芝. 基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 2016, 30(6): 65-70.
	[LI M, WANG G W, ZHANG L Z.Drought characteristics analysis and the zoning based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in Northeast China. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2016, 30(6): 65-70.]
[10]	高西宁, 蒋姗姗, 王耸, 等. 东北地区1961-2014年降水量变化分区及其区域特征. 生态学杂志, 2016, 35(5): 1301-1307.
	[GAO X N, JIANG S S, WANG S, et al.The division of precipitation change and its regional characteristics in Northeast China during 1961-2014. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2016, 35(5): 1301-1307.]
[11]	董蕾, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. 基于格点数据的西北干旱区极端降水事件分析. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12): 2048-2057.
	[DONG L, ZHANG M J, WANG S J, et al.Extreme precipitation events in arid areas in Northwest China based on gridded data. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(12): 2048-2057.]
[12]	赵煜飞, 朱江, 许艳. 近50 a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估. 气象科学, 2014, 34(4): 414-420.
	[ZHAO Y F, ZHU J, XU Y.Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitation datasets in China for recent 50 years. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2014, 34(4): 414-420.]
[13]	马彬, 张勃, 周丹, 等. 基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国东部季风区干旱特征分析. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(7): 1185-1197.
	[MA B, ZHANG B, ZHOU D, et al.Analysis of drought characteristics of the East China monsoon area based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(7): 1185-1197.]
[14]	BADR H S, DEZFULI A K, ZAITCHIK B F, et al.Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of precipitation variability in observations and global climate models. Journal of Climate, 2016, 29(24): 9027-9043.
[15]	MCKEE T B, DOESKEN N J, KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1993: 179-184.
[16]	张强, 邹旭恺, 肖风劲, 等. 气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2006). 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2006: 14-15.
	[ZHANG Q, ZOU X K, XIAO F J, et al.Classification of Meteorological Drought (GB/T 20481-2006). Beijing: Standard Press of China, 2006: 14-15.]
[17]	PAULO A A, PEREIRA L S.Stochastic prediction of drought class transitions. Water Resources Management, 2008, 22(9): 1277-1296.
[18]	GOCIC M, TRAJKOVIC S.Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980-2010. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 494: 32-42.
[19]	BONACCORSO B, BORDI I, CANCELLIERE A, et al.Spatial variability of drought: An analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resources Management, 2003, 17(4): 273-296.
[20]	RAZIEI T, SAGHAFIAN B, PAULO A A, et al.Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Western Iran. Water Resources Management, 2009, 23(3): 439-455.
[21]	GRINSTED A, MOORE J C, JEVREJEVA S.Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004, 11(5/6): 561-566.
[22]	刘永婷, 徐光来, 尹周祥, 等. 全球变化背景下安徽近55 a气温时空变化特征. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4): 680-691.
	[LIU Y T, XU G L, YIN Z X, et al.Spatio-temporal change of surface air temperature in Anhui province in the context of global warming from 1960 to 2014. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(4): 680-691.]
[23]	龚强, 汪宏宇, 王盘兴, 等. 东北夏季降水年代际、年际变化的区域差别. 气象科学, 2007, 27(6): 672-678.
	[GONG Q, WANG H Y, WANG P X, et al.Regional differences of summer rainfall interdecadal and interannual variations in the Northeast China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2007, 27(6): 672-678.]
[24]	祁海霞, 智协飞, 白永清. 中国干旱发生频率的年代际变化特征及趋势分析. 大气科学学报, 2011, 34(4): 447-455.
	[QI H X, ZHI X F, BAI Y Q.Interdecadal variation and trend analysis of the drought occurrence frequency in China. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 34(4): 447-455.]
[25]	孙凤华, 杨素英, 陈鹏狮. 东北地区近44年的气候暖干化趋势分析及可能影响. 生态学杂志, 2005, 24(7): 751-755.
	[SUN F H, YANG S Y, CHEN P S.Climatic warming-drying trend in northeastern China during the last 44 years and its effects. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2005, 24(7): 751-755.]
[26]	邹立尧, 国世友, 牛宁. 三江平原1960-2004年农业气候环境年代际变化. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(8): 844-850.
	[ZOU L Y, GUO S Y, NIU N.Interdecadal change of agroclimatic environment in Sanjiang Plain during 1960-2004. Advances in Earth Science, 2010, 25(8): 844-850.]
[27]	卢洪健, 莫兴国, 孟德娟, 等. 气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.
	[LU H J, MO X G, MENG D J, et al.Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought and its responses to climate change across Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.]
[28]	郑景云, 尹云鹤, 李炳元. 中国气候区划新方案. 地理学报, 2010, 65(1): 3-12.
	[ZHENG J Y, YIN Y H, LI B Y.A new scheme for climate regionalization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1): 3-12.]
[29]	徐一丹, 任传友, 马熙达, 等. 基于SPI/SPEI指数的东北地区多时间尺度干旱变化特征对比分析. 干旱区研究, 2017, 34(6): 1250-1262.
	[XU Y D, REN C Y, MA X D, et al.Change of drought at multiple temporal scales based on SPI/SPEI in Northeast China. Arid Zone Research, 2017, 34(6): 1250-1262.]
[30]	高蓓, 姜彤, 苏布达, 等. 基于SPEI的1961-2012年东北地区干旱演变特征分析. 中国农业气象, 2014, 35(6): 656-662.
	[GAO B, JIANG T, SU B D, et al.Evolution analysis on droughts in Northeast China during 1961-2012 based on SPEI. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(6): 656-662.]
[31]	胡娜娜. 东北三省旱涝时空演变及趋势判断. 西安: 陕西师范大学, 2013.
	[HU N N.Time and space evolution and trend judgment of drought and flood in three northeastern provinces. Xi'an: Shaanxi Normal University, 2013.]
[32]	孙莹, 江静, 杨青, 等. 东北夏季气温分区变化特征. 气象科学, 2008, 28(1): 50-55.
	[SUN Y, JIANG J, YANG Q, et al.Variability of summer temperature in the three subregions of Northeast China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2008, 28(1): 50-55.]
[33]	LIU X, XU Z, YU R.Spatiotemporal variability of drought and the potential climatological driving factors in the Liao River Basin. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(1): 1-14.
[34]	HAN T, WANG H, SUN J.Strengthened relationship between Eastern ENSO and summer precipitation over Northeastern China. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(12): 4497-4512.
[35]	WU R, YANG S, LIU S, et al.Changes in the relationship between Northeast China summer temperature and ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2010, 115(D21107): 1-15.

亚区	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	Ⅴ区	Ⅵ区	Ⅶ区	Ⅷ区
Ⅰ区	0.80
Ⅱ区	0.58	0.87
Ⅲ区	0.29	0.05	0.87
Ⅳ区	0.65	0.39	0.57	0.81
Ⅴ区	0.25	0.45	-0.03	0.31	0.82
Ⅵ区	0.01	0.01	0.55	0.21	-0.14	0.83
Ⅶ区	0.30	0.07	0.66	0.70	0.12	0.65	0.79
Ⅷ区	0.22	0.23	0.26	0.53	0.51	0.13	0.52	0.83

干旱指标/亚区	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	Ⅴ区	Ⅵ区	Ⅶ区	Ⅷ区
轻旱/月	86	102	104	113	92	73	114	75
中旱/月	85	65	50	65	71	62	50	69
重旱/月	19	30	39	37	36	30	29	42
特旱/月	18	4	4	8	11	14	13	5
总干旱历时/月	208	201	197	223	210	179	206	191
平均干旱历时/月	13.87	10.05	9.85	11.15	7.50	10.53	9.81	11.94
总干旱烈度	239.95	218.02	214.96	240.91	237.77	215.44	227.27	222.23
平均干旱烈度	15.99	10.90	10.75	12.05	8.49	12.67	10.82	13.89
干旱频次	15	20	20	20	28	17	21	16