广东省产业绿色发展的空间格局及影响因素分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190803

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

产业绿色发展对构建高效低耗、绿色循环发展的产业体系、实现经济可持续发展具有重要意义。从产业绿色增长度、资源环境承载力和政府政策支撑力三个维度构建广东省产业绿色发展综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法,测度了2005-2015年广东省及各市产业绿色发展综合水平,并运用探索性空间数据分析方法剖析了广东省各市产业绿色发展的空间关联特征,在此基础上采用空间误差模型对广东省产业绿色发展水平的影响因素进行探讨。结果表明：（1）从总体水平看,广东省产业绿色发展综合水平基本呈现持续增长态势;（2）从空间分布看,其总体水平的空间格局呈现“核心—边缘”状,高水平主要集聚在珠三角,而中低水平主要分布在珠三角外围地区;（3）从空间演化看,2005-2015年广东省各市的产业绿色发展水平空间差异略有扩大,但总体格局保持相对稳定;（4）从空间关联特征看,广东省各市产业绿色发展水平的空间分布集聚格局基本稳定,珠三角城市处于高值集聚的热点地区,外围地区的东翼和北部山区部分城市处于低值集聚的冷点地区;（5）空间误差模型结果显示全球化、市场化、居民收入水平、政府调控和科技水平均对广东省产业绿色发展水平产生显著的正向影响,而城镇化对产业绿色发展的影响不显著。

关键词: 产业绿色发展, 综合评价, 空间误差模型, 广东

Abstract:

The green development of industry is of great significance to the construction of industrial system that is efficient, low-cost, green and circular development, and to the realization of sustainable economic development. This paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of the green development of industry in Guangdong province from three dimensions of industrial green growth, resource and environmental carrying capacity and government policy support, using the entropy method, measures the comprehensive levels of Guangdong province and its respective cities from 2005 to 2015, and uses the exploratory spatial data analysis method to analyze the spatial correlation characteristics of the green development of industry of the cities in Guangdong province, on the basis of the spatial error model, discusses the influencing factors of industry ecology in Guangdong province. The results show that: (1) On the whole, the comprehensive level of the green development of industry in Guangdong province presents a sustainable growth trend. (2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the overall spatial pattern of the Pearl River Delta presents a structure of "Core-edge", with the Pearl River Delta as the core and the peripheral areas of the Pearl River Delta as the edge. (3) From the perspective of spatial evolution, the spatial differences of the green development of industry in the cities of Guangdong province are slightly enlarged from 2005 to 2015, but the overall pattern remains relatively stable. (4) From the perspective of spatial correlation characteristics, the agglomeration pattern of the spatial distribution of the green development of industry in the cities of Guangdong province is stable. The cities in the Pearl River Delta present high-high agglomeration phenomenon, while some cities in the eastern and mountainous areas of the peripheral areas present low-low agglomeration phenomenon. (5) Globalization, marketization, residents' income level, government regulation, as well as science and technology level all have a significant influence on the green development of industry in Guangdong province, while the influence of urbanization is not significant.

Key words: the green development of industry, comprehensive evaluation, spatial error model, Guangdong

张国俊, 邓毛颖, 姚洋洋, 李雄英. 广东省产业绿色发展的空间格局及影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(8): 1593-1605.

ZHANG Guo-jun, DENG Mao-ying, YAO Yang-yang, LI Xiong-ying. Comprehensive level of the green development of industry in Guangdong province and spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(8): 1593-1605.

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目标层	维度层	要素层	指标层	指标解释及关系
产业绿色发展水平	A产业绿色增长度	A1产业绿色增长效率	A11人均GDP	地区经济发展水平（正向）
			A12单位GDP能耗	产业发展的节能降耗状况（负向）
			A13单位GDP电耗
			A14单位GDP水耗
			A15第一产业劳动生产率	经济活动效率（正向）
			A16第二产业劳动生产率
			A17第三产业劳动生产率
		A2产业绿色增长潜力	A21研发经费支出	技术资金投入和人力资本,一定程度上体现创新水平（正向）
			A22研发经费支出占GDP比例
			A23工业企业科技活动人员
	B资源环境承载力	B1资源丰裕度	B11人均供水量	地区资源丰富程度（正向）
			B12采矿业城镇单位职工占城市单位职工比例
		B2环境状况	B21单位GDP工业废气排放量	产业发展引起的常见环境污染情况（负向）
			B22单位GDP工业废水排放量
			B23单位GDP工业固体废物产生量
	C政府政策支撑力	C1环境治理	C11工业废水排放达标率	环境污染治理情况（正向）
			C12工业固体废物综合利用率
			C13人工造林面积占总面积比例
		C2基础设施建设	C21人均公园绿地面积	地区基础设施建设水平（正向）
			C22城市污水处理率
			C23生活垃圾无害化处理率

年份	Moran' I	E(I)	Z得分	P值
2005	0.5314	-0.0500	4.3059	0.0000
2006	0.5180	-0.0500	4.2135	0.0000
2007	0.3789	-0.0500	3.4113	0.0006
2008	0.5909	-0.0500	4.9255	0.0000
2009	0.5995	-0.0500	4.9710	0.0000
2010	0.4541	-0.0500	3.8527	0.0001
2011	0.3649	-0.0500	3.1722	0.0015
2012	0.5334	-0.0500	4.6622	0.0000
2013	0.6309	-0.0500	5.2609	0.0000
2014	0.6729	-0.0500	5.4890	0.0000
2015	0.7270	-0.0500	5.8487	0.0000

变量	SDM		SAR		SEM		模型选择的检验方法	统计量	P值
变量	系数	P值	系数	P值	系数	P值	模型选择的检验方法	统计量	P值
x₁	0.0410^***	0.0000	0.0636^***	0.0000	0.0188^**	0.0270	Ward空间滞后	115.39^***	0.0000
x₂	-0.0131	0.2880	-0.0293^**	0.0230	0.0117	0.2330	LR空间滞后	98.03^***	0.0000
x₃	0.0054	0.2440	-0.0096^*	0.0720	0.0115^***	0.0050	Ward空间误差	10.67^*	0.0992
x₄	0.0137^*	0.0720	-0.0272^***	0.0000	0.0427^***	0.0000	LR空间误差	-111.07	1.0000
x₅	0.0173^***	0.0000	0.0079^*	0.0770	0.0145^***	0.0000	Hausman检验	10.75^*	0.0964
x₆	0.0170^***	0.0050	0.0113^*	0.0930	0.0194^***	0.0000
ρ/λ	0.3107^***	0.0000	0.2993^***	0.0000	0.0125	0.6230
Log-L	494.7534		445.7377		550.2909