1979-2014年中国地面风速的长期变化趋势

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190715

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国国家级地面气象站均一化风速月值数据集,采用线性回归等方法分析了1979-2014年中国2268个台站地面风速演变的时空特征。结果表明：中国地面风速总体呈显著下降趋势,年平均风速变化速率为-0.142 m/s/10 a;四个季节中春季平均风速下降趋势（-0.18 m/s/10 a）明显大于其他三个季节,其次依次为冬季（-0.135 m/s/10 a）、夏季（-0.13 m/s/10 a）及秋季（-0.129 m/s/10 a）;研究选取的台站中约82%的台站风速呈现下降趋势;划分的七个区域中,高原区和东北区风速下降趋势最明显,华北区下降趋势最小,但都通过了0.05显著性检验;中国地面风速在1980s下降趋势最显著（-0.235 m/s/10 a）,1990s下降趋势减缓（-0.112 m/s/10 a）,2000-2014年下降趋势最小,为-0.099 m/s/10 a;研究期间地面风速与地面气温呈显著负相关,表明近期中国气温变暖可能导致风速减弱。

关键词: 线性回归, 时空变化特征, 均一化资料, 地面风速

Abstract: Based on the monthly homogenized data, this paper explored the spatial and temporal changes of surface wind speed of 2268 stations in China during 1979-2014. In this paper, the linear regression and the five-point moving average are used to examine the trend of the climate change. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation. The Cressman interpolation method commonly used in meteorological data is adopted to interpolate the site data to grid data. In order to study the changes of surface wind speed in different parts of the country, China is divided into seven regions. The results are shown as follows. The mean surface wind speed in China generally showed a significant downward trend with an annual rate of -0.142 m/s/10 a, and it decreased with the largest trend magnitude in spring (-0.18 m/s/10 a), followed by winter (-0.135 m/s/10 a), summer (-0.13 m/s/10 a) and autumn (-0.129 m/s/10 a). Furthermore, about 82% (1868) of the selected stations showed a downward trend of surface wind speed. The significantly declining trend was found in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern sub-regions classified in this paper, with the declining trend in North China being the smallest, and all passed the 0.05 significance test. In terms of interdecadal changes, the downward trend is slowing down. The declining trend of the whole country was most significant in the 1980s (-0.235 m /s /10 a), and was slowed down to -0.112 m/s/10 a in the 1990s, then turned to the smallest in 2000-2014 with a rate of -0.099 m/s/10 a. During the study period, there was a significant negative correlation between surface wind speed and surface air temperature, indicating that the recent warming of China may cause the wind speed to weaken.

Key words: surface wind speed, spatial and temporal variations, homogenized data, linear regression

王楠, 游庆龙, 刘菊菊. 1979-2014年中国地面风速的长期变化趋势[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(7): 1531-1542.

WANG Nan, YOU Qing-long, LIU Ju-ju. The long-term trend of surface wind speed in China from 1979 to 2014[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(7): 1531-1542.

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