“一带一路”沿线国家粮食生产的时空格局分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190601

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“一带一路”倡议是新时代下全球化发展的必然结果。粮食作为一种重要的战略资源,其生产对“一带一路”沿线国家乃至全球粮食安全意义重大。通过对沿线国家粮食生产数量、结构等方面的深入剖析,揭示了“一带一路”沿线国家近40年来粮食生产的时空格局。结果表明：（1）“一带一路”沿线国家是世界粮食的重要产区,粮食产量占全球比例50%~60%左右,1977-2016年粮食产量呈增长趋势,单产是其粮食总产增长的主要影响因素。1995-2016年人均粮食产量有所提高但国别差异显著,人粮关系逐步改善,区域粮食保障程度整体增强。（2）“一带一路”沿线国家粮食生产存在明显的地域差异,空间格局相对稳定,中国、印度、俄罗斯是其主要粮食生产国,东南亚和南亚国家的粮食产量普遍较高,阿拉伯半岛国家的粮食产量相对较低。（3）稻谷、小麦和玉米是“一带一路”沿线国家主要粮食作物,稻谷对粮食总产变化的贡献最大,1977-2016年玉米占比不断增加,三大作物区域分布特征明显。

关键词: 粮食生产, 时空格局, 地域差异, “一带一路”沿线国家;

Abstract:

The "Belt and Road" Initiative is the inevitable result of globalization in the new era. As an important strategic resource, food production research is of great significance to regional and global food security. By a quantitative analysis of cereals production, planting area, yield and planting structure, the spatial-temporal patterns and regional differences of countries along the "Belt and Road" were revealed based on time-series data of nearly 40 years. The results showed that: (1) The countries along the "Belt and Road" were important cereals production areas, and the production accounted for 50% to 60% of the world total. A constant growth trend of cereals production was showed during 1977-2016. Per capita cereals production has increased with much difference at country level during 1995-2016, which means the man-grain relationship has been gradually improved and the regional food security has increased. (2) There were obvious regional differences in cereals production in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the spatial pattern was relatively stable. China, India and Russia were high cereals production countries. Cereals production in countries in Southeast and South Asia was generally high, while that in the Arabian Peninsula was relatively low. (3) Rice, wheat and maize were major cereal crops in countries along the "Belt and Road", and rice contributed the most to the total production. The proportions of rice and wheat were relatively stable, but that of maize was increasing. Meanwhile, the regional distribution characteristics of the three major crops were also obvious.

Key words: cereal production, spatial-temporal pattern, regional difference, countries along the Belt and Road

贾琨, 杨艳昭, 封志明. “一带一路”沿线国家粮食生产的时空格局分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(6): 1135-1145.

Kun JIA, Yan-zhao YANG, Zhi-ming FENG. An evaluation of the Belt and Road cereals production from a view of spatial-temporal patterns[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(6): 1135-1145.

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六大区域	主要国别
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古、俄罗斯
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦
西亚/中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及

国家	粮食产量/亿t					份额/%		播种面积/亿hm²					份额/%
国家	1977 年	1987 年	1997 年	2007 年	2016 年	期初	期末	1977 年	1987 年	1997 年	2007 年	2016 年	期初	期末
“一带一路”沿线国家	8.09	10.20	12.17	13.47	16.76	100.00	100.00	4.51	4.28	4.19	4.08	4.21	100.00	100.00
中国	2.43	3.59	4.46	4.58	5.83	30.05	34.76	0.97	0.90	0.93	0.86	0.97	21.59	22.96
俄罗斯	—	—	0.87	0.80	1.18	—	7.03	—	—	0.48	0.40	0.44	—	10.56
印度	1.38	1.56	2.23	2.60	2.95	17.06	17.58	1.04	0.99	1.00	1.01	0.98	23.02	23.40
印度尼西亚	0.27	0.45	0.58	0.70	0.98	3.34	5.83	0.11	0.13	0.14	0.16	0.18	2.43	4.29
哈萨克斯坦	—	—	0.12	0.20	0.20	—	1.22	—	—	0.14	0.15	0.15	—	3.60
乌克兰	—	—	0.34	0.29	0.65	—	3.89	—	—	0.14	0.13	0.14	—	3.33

类型	绝对减产	缓慢增产	稳定增产	快速增产	高速增产
增幅	F<0	0≤F<20%	20%≤F<40%	40%≤F<60%	F≥60%
数量/个	13	12	18	9	10
占比/%	20.97	19.35	29.03	14.52	16.13