西藏土地资源承载力的现实与未来——基于膳食营养当量分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190501

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地承载力是人地关系的基础表征,开展土地承载力评价可以为实施农业空间治理、制定农业发展政策等提供参考。以西藏自治区为例,基于人体每日所需热量、蛋白质和脂肪评价土地的现实承载力及其变化。评价结果表明：（1）西藏自治区土地承载指数从2004-2016年一直维持在80.66%~89.84%之间,处于平衡有余状态。（2）未来西藏自治区土地承载指数将会持续保持在87.5%之上,呈现先升后降的变化态势,在2032年达到峰值,届时土地承载指数将会超过92.56%;此后将会持续下降,在2050年将低于90%。以土地承载力评价为基础,根据未来食物消费需求变化和西藏自治区的自然条件,提出不增加农牧业开发强度,保持农牧业生产空间规模稳定,并逐步优化调整农牧业发展结构,适度降低粮食种植面积,在适宜地区扩大蔬菜、瓜果种植,以及发展草牧业经济等建议。

关键词: 承载力, 空间治理, 人口, 膳食营养, 西藏

Abstract:

Land carrying capacity is a fundamental representation of relationship between human and land. Forecasting and evaluating land carrying capacity will bring benefits to agricultural spatial governance, population strategies and agriculture policy-making. Taking the Tibet Autonomous Region as an example, this study evaluates and predicts the actual land carrying capacity and its changes based on the daily calorie, protein and fat of regular human needs. Through analysis, it is found that: (1) The land carrying index of Tibet remained between 80.66% and 89.84% from 2004 to 2016 in a tight balance level. (2) In the future, the land carrying index of Tibet will continue to remain above 87.5%, with a trend of rising first and then falling, and then reaching a peak around 2032, with the proportion of more than 92.56%; it will continue to decline thereafter, with the proportion of less than 90% in 2050. Therefore, based on the evaluation of land carrying capacity and according to the changes in future food consumption and the natural conditions of this region, there is no need to increase the intensity of agricultural and livestock development, but it is matter to reduce the occupation of cultivated land and grassland, such as urban and rural construction, and maintain the current total production space of both agriculture and animal husbandry. Some suggestions are also proposed, including gradually increasing investment in science and technology of agricultural and livestock products to improve the production efficiency, implementing ecological restoration and land remediation. It is necessary to optimize agricultural production structure of Tibet in accordance with these changes in residents' food consumption structure, which includes moderately reducing the area planted with grain, expanding the cultivation of vegetables, fruits and fruits in suitable areas, and developing the economy of grassland and animal husbandry.

Key words: carrying capacity, spatial governance, population, dietary nutrition, Tibet

郝庆, 封志明, 杨艳昭, 朱鹤. 西藏土地资源承载力的现实与未来——基于膳食营养当量分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(5): 911-920.

Qing HAO, Zhi-ming FENG, Yan-zhao YANG, He ZHU. Evaluation on land carrying capacity of Tibet based on dietary nutrients:Present and prospects[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(5): 911-920.

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项目	粮食	植物油	食糖	蔬菜	水果	肉类	蛋类	奶类	水产品
热量/kcal	3553	9000	3776	180	436	3915	1468	690	782
蛋白质/g	93	0	4.6	11.4	6.2	99.5	123.8	33.6	125
脂肪/g	25.7	1000	0	1.6	2.4	387.8	101.4	40.2	24.2

年份	热量/亿kcal	蛋白质/亿g	脂肪/亿g
2004	42030.15	1099.029	1381.806
2005	41826.07	1095.85	1444.856
2006	41423.57	1094.797	1451.797
2007	42114.32	1117.024	1486.149
2008	44528.88	1210.103	1624.446
2009	41373.56	1097.053	1516.622
2010	41929.27	1113.138	1560.286
2011	43241.83	1144.161	1634.104
2012	43734.65	1164.88	1610.171
2013	44577.97	1190.264	1679.419
2014	45271.19	1211.312	1674.66
2015	46563.42	1245.542	1748.323
2016	46910.53	1257.797	1731.519

年份	可承载力人口/万人	实际人口/万人	承载指数/%
2004	335.86	274.00	81.58
2005	334.23	277.00	82.88
2006	331.01	281.00	84.89
2007	336.53	284.00	84.39
2008	355.82	287.00	80.66
2009	330.61	297.00	89.83
2010	335.05	301.00	89.84
2011	345.54	303.30	87.78
2012	349.48	307.62	88.02
2013	356.22	312.04	87.60
2014	361.76	317.55	87.78
2015	372.08	323.97	87.07
2016	374.86	331.00	88.30

类别	消费量			生产量			盈余量
类别	2015年	2016年	2017年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2015年	2016年	2017年
粮食	89.71	93.77	95.92	100.60	101.91	106.50	10.89	8.14	10.58
肉类	12.67	13.62	10.05	28.00	27.72	32.10	15.33	14.10	22.05
猪肉	2.18	3.08	2.56	1.50	1.54	1.10	-0.68	-1.54	-1.46
牛肉	8.54	7.20	4.67	16.50	16.18	22.50	7.96	8.98	17.83
羊肉	1.89	3.17	2.65	8.20	8.23	6.40	6.31	5.06	3.75
蛋类	0.99	0.97	1.23	0.50	0.48	0.50	-0.49	-0.49	-0.73
奶类	6.94	6.76	7.58	35.00	34.70	42.00	28.06	27.94	34.42
水果	1.96	2.26	3.40	1.50	1.53	0.20	-0.46	-0.73	-3.20

年份		粮食(原粮)	蔬菜	猪肉	牛肉	羊肉	禽类	水产品	蛋类	奶类	干鲜瓜果类
城镇	2015	157.21	61.99	10.09	16.36	3.91	3.88	1.95	6.99	15.91	19.45
	2016	148.66	62.99	9.92	27.98	3.52	3.41	1.71	6.65	16.71	21.71
	2017	185.27	74.89	14.11	21.48	13.98	5.10	2.97	8.49	21.24	32.71
农村	2015	313.26	13.38	5.71	29.40	6.43	0.03	0	1.86	23.09	1.98
	2016	326.48	16.02	9.10	19.76	11.52	0.05	0	1.74	21.61	2.06
	2017	317.96	17.67	5.39	11.29	5.80	0.09	0	2.02	22.91	2.46
城乡差	2015	-156.05	48.61	4.37	-13.04	-2.53	3.85	1.95	5.13	-7.19	17.48
	2016	-177.82	46.97	0.82	8.22	-8.00	3.36	1.71	4.91	-4.90	19.65
	2017	-132.68	57.22	8.72	10.20	8.17	5.01	2.97	6.47	-1.67	30.26
	均值	-155.52	50.93	4.64	1.79	-0.78	4.07	2.21	5.50	-4.59	22.46