关键词: 自给率, 粮食需求, 粮食消费, 粮食库存, 粮食安全

Abstract:

Due to the difference of statistic standarda and calculation methods, the results of grain self-sufficiency rate were generally quite different and the assessment of the grain security situation in China varied greatly, which aroused great controversy. In order to accurately analyze the grain security situation of China to avoid misleading the relevant decisions, it is necessary to study the grain statistical data sources and the calculation methods of grain self-sufficiency rate. In this work, three commonly used methods, which were the stint counting method, the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method, were used to estimate and analyze the grain, cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rate in China during 2000-2016. The results were as follows: (1) The stint counting method would cause distortion in the results, while the results provided by the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method were more accurate. (2) The cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rates could report the actual grain supply demand relations. (3) The self-sufficiency rate of cereal grain was greater than 98%, and that of edible grain was greater than 100%. However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, city development demand for more land which would cause serious problems such as embezzlement of cultivated land and soaring grain demand, so grain production still should not be slackened in China. It is suggested that the agricultural structure should be adjusted in the future to stabilize the production of wheat and rice.

Key words: self-sufficiency rate, grain demand, grain consumption, grain stock, grain security