1977-2017年萨吾尔山冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190410

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1977年MSS和1989年、1998年、2006年TM及2017年OLI/TIRS遥感影像资料,通过目视解译和GIS技术,提取萨吾尔山地区五个时期的冰川信息,同时对研究区周边气温降水的趋势性和周期性进行分析,探讨该地区最近40年冰川对气候变化的响应。研究表明：（1）1977-2017年,研究区冰川总面积减小了10.51 km²,退缩45.72%,退缩速率为1.14%·a^-1,且冰川处于加速退缩阶段;（2）冰川规模越小,退缩越快;（3）南坡退缩速度最快,东南坡和西南坡次之,东北坡退缩最慢,冰川退缩率在5°~40°坡度大体呈现随坡度增大而增加的趋势;（4）研究区正处于气温上升期,降水增加期,降水量增加幅度不能弥补由气温升高造成的冰川消融,引起冰川退缩速率不断加快;（5）与其他因素主导区域的冰川相比,研究区冰川退缩率较高,面积较小的冰川占比较多是形成这一结果的另一因素。

关键词: 萨吾尔山, 冰川变化, 遥感, 气候变化

Abstract:

The Sawuer Mountain spans the two countries between China and Kazakhstan and is the transitional section between the Tianshan Mountains and the central Altay Mountains. This mountain range is not only the most obvious watershed for the inland and Arctic sea systems in Xinjiang, but also the highest mountain in the northernmost part of the western Junggar Basin. Muz Taw Mountain is the main peak of the Sawuer Mountain and Muz Taw Glacier in the peak is the most important tourist resource in Jimunai county. The northern slope of the study area runs through a glacier snow-fed river, the Ulejkururasu River, which is also a boundary river between China and Kazakhstan. Glaciers, as the alpine solid reservoir, whose river runoff by ablation plays a very important role in the survival and development of agriculture and livestock husbandry in the middle and lower reaches of arid regions. Meanwhile, glaciers also affect the sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in a large extent. Therefore, it is possible to predict future changes in the glacier and the future development of the area affected by the glacier via understanding the changing trends of glaciers and their response to climate change. Based on the Landsat 1977 MSS, 1989 TM, 1998 TM, 2006 TM and 2017 OLI / TIRS remote sensing image data, the glacier information of five periods in the Uighur region was extracted by visual interpretation and GIS technology. The trend and periodicity of temperature and precipitation were analyzed to investigate the response of the glaciers to climate change in recent 40 years in the region. The results show that: (1) From 1977 to 2017, the total glacier area in the study region decreased by 10.51 km², retreating by 45.72%, and the retreat rate was 1.14%·a^-1, with the glacier retreating at an accelerating stage. (2) The smaller the glacier scale, the faster the retreat speed; (3) The south slope retreats fastest, followed by the southeast slope and the southwest slope, and the slowest retreat is in the northeast slope, and the gradient of the glacier shrinkage at 5°-40° generally shows a trend of increasing with the increase of the slope; (4) The study region is in the period of temperature rise and precipitation increase, and the increase of precipitation cannot make up for the glacier ablation caused by the temperature increase, leading to the accelerating retreating rate of glacier. (5) Compared with the glaciers dominated by other factors, the glacier retreats. More glaciers with higher retreat rates and smaller areas is another factor in forming this result.

Key words: Sawuer Mountain, glacier change, climate change, remote sensing

王炎强, 赵军, 李忠勤, 张明军. 1977-2017年萨吾尔山冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(4): 802-814.

WANG Yan-qiang, ZHAO Jun, LI Zhong-qin, ZHANG Ming-jun. Glacier changes in the Sawuer Mountain during 1977-2017 and their response to climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(4): 802-814.

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ID	接受日期	传感器	分辨率/m	轨道号	云量/%	影像说明
LM21560271977246AAA03	1977-09-03	MSS	60	156/27	1	解译影像
LT41440271989237XXX01	1989-08-25	TM	30	144/27	0	解译影像
LT51450271998245BIK00	1998-09-02	TM	30	144/27	0	解译影像
LE71450272000227SGS00	2000-08-14	ETM+	30	145/27	0	参考影像
LT51450272006251IKR00	2006-09-08	TM	30	145/27	0	解译影像
LC81450272015196LGN01	2015-07-15	OLI/TIRS	30	145/27	0	参考影像
LC81440272017210LGN00	2017-07-29	OLI/TIRS	30	144/27	4	解译影像

站名	经度/E	纬度/N	海拔高度/m	资料时段/年
吉木乃	85°52′	47°26′	984	1961-2016
和布克赛尔	85°43′	46°47′	1292	1961-2016
哈巴河	86°24′	48°03′	533	1961-2016

时间/年	冰川面积/km²	时段/年	面积减少量/km²	面积退缩率/%
1977	23.00
1989	20.02	1977-1989	2.98	12.96
1998	17.96	1989-1998	2.06	10.29
2006	16.06	1998-2006	1.90	10.58
2017	12.49	2006-2017	3.57	22.23
		1977-2017	10.52	45.70

主导因素	研究区域	研究时段/年	面积退缩率/%	年均退缩率/%	数据源	资料来源
中间西风	叶尔羌河流域	1968-2009	14.62	0.36	地形图、TM、ETM+	冯童等^[29]
	努布拉流域	1993-2015	4.64	0.20	TM、ETM+、OLI/TIRS	刘凯等^[30]
	克勒青河流域	1978-2015	8.00	0.22	MSS、TM、ETM+、OLI/TIRS	许艾文等^[31]
	西昆仑峰区	1990-2011	0.65	0.03	TM、ETM+	李成秀等^[32]
	东帕米尔高原	1972-2011	5.79	0.15	MSS、TM、ETM+	曾磊等^[33]
印度季风	喜马拉雅山东段	1980-2007	16.40	0.61	地形图、TM、ETM+	李治国等^[34]
西风带北支	天山	1960-2007	11.50	0.31	—	王圣杰等^[35]
	乌鲁木齐河源1号	1962-2006	14.00	0.32	地形图、航片	李忠勤等^[36]
	台兰河流域	1972-2011	11.50	0.29	地形图、ETM+	怀保娟等^[37]
	奎屯河流域	1964-2015	32.60	0.64	地形图、ETM+、OLI/TIRS	张慧等^[38]
	萨吾尔山	1977-2017	45.72	1.14	MSS、TM、ETM+、OLI/TIRS	本文