自然资源学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 633-645.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190316
收稿日期:
2018-09-26
修回日期:
2018-12-28
出版日期:
2019-03-28
发布日期:
2019-03-28
作者简介:
作者简介:龚亚珍(1972- ),女,浙江余姚人,博士,副教授,研究方向为环境和资源经济学。E-mail: ygong.2010@ruc.edu.cn
基金资助:
GONG Ya-zhen1(), GUAN Bao-zhu2,3, DAI Zhe1, ZHANG Hui1
Received:
2018-09-26
Revised:
2018-12-28
Online:
2019-03-28
Published:
2019-03-28
摘要:
农用机井的迅猛发展使地下水灌溉在我国的粮食生产中发挥了重要作用,但同时也使地下水面临超采严重和水位下降的严峻形势。为了可持续地利用地下水资源,政府需采取必要措施。鉴于地下水使用中存在的外部效应,合理控制机井密度可能是值得政府考虑的重要举措之一。然而,现有文献对机井密度与地下水位之间的关系仍缺乏实证分析。本研究以兰考县为案例研究区,结合有关部门的机井普查数据和研究小组搜集的农户调研数据,利用空间分析和计量模型分析,发现机井密度与地下水位之间具有显著的关系。具体而言,当某一机井100 m半径范围内的机井数目每增加一眼,该机井的水位显著下降约15 cm;机井密度对水位的边际影响随半径范围的扩大而下降。研究建议:政府在今后应采取有关措施控制机井密度,加强地下水取水许可证制度建设等配套措施。
龚亚珍, 关宝珠, 代喆, 张惠. 基于外部效应分析机井密度对地下水位的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 633-645.
GONG Ya-zhen, GUAN Bao-zhu, DAI Zhe, ZHANG Hui. Taking a perspective in externalities to analyze the effect of well density on groundwater table[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 633-645.
表3
计量模型估计结果"
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
不同半径范围/m | 100 | 300 | 800 | 1000 | 1500 | 2000 |
不同半径范围内的机井数 | 0.153* | 0.091** | 0.027** | 0.023** | 0.012** | 0.005 |
(0.083) | (0.041) | (0.013) | (0.011) | (0.006) | (0.003) | |
机井到黄河的距离/km | 0.573*** | 0.563*** | 0.546*** | 0.531*** | 0.524*** | 0.543*** |
(0.146) | (0.140) | (0.137) | (0.133) | (0.130) | (0.137) | |
机井到G30的距离/km | -0.231*** | -0.243*** | -0.223** | -0.210** | -0.211** | -0.221** |
(0.088) | (0.086) | (0.092) | (0.096) | (0.096) | (0.093) | |
机井到G1511的距离/km | 0.286 | 0.266 | 0.402* | 0.504* | 0.589* | 0.472* |
(0.186) | (0.186) | (0.224) | (0.262) | (0.303) | (0.266) | |
G30和G1511交叉项 | -0.017*** | -0.016*** | -0.0206*** | -0.023*** | -0.024*** | -0.021*** |
(0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.007) | |
常数项 | 5.819 | 6.056 | 5.254 | 4.797 | 4.601 | 5.000 |
(3.955) | (3.768) | (4.143) | (4.301) | (4.443) | (4.444) | |
是否控制村虚变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
样本量 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 |
拟合优度 | 0.951 | 0.952 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0.950 |
表3
计量模型估计结果"
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
不同半径范围/m | 100 | 300 | 800 | 1000 | 1500 | 2000 |
不同半径范围内的机井数 | 0.153* | 0.091** | 0.027** | 0.023** | 0.012** | 0.005 |
(0.083) | (0.041) | (0.013) | (0.011) | (0.006) | (0.003) | |
机井到黄河的距离/km | 0.573*** | 0.563*** | 0.546*** | 0.531*** | 0.524*** | 0.543*** |
(0.146) | (0.140) | (0.137) | (0.133) | (0.130) | (0.137) | |
机井到G30的距离/km | -0.231*** | -0.243*** | -0.223** | -0.210** | -0.211** | -0.221** |
(0.088) | (0.086) | (0.092) | (0.096) | (0.096) | (0.093) | |
机井到G1511的距离/km | 0.286 | 0.266 | 0.402* | 0.504* | 0.589* | 0.472* |
(0.186) | (0.186) | (0.224) | (0.262) | (0.303) | (0.266) | |
G30和G1511交叉项 | -0.017*** | -0.016*** | -0.0206*** | -0.023*** | -0.024*** | -0.021*** |
(0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.007) | |
常数项 | 5.819 | 6.056 | 5.254 | 4.797 | 4.601 | 5.000 |
(3.955) | (3.768) | (4.143) | (4.301) | (4.443) | (4.444) | |
是否控制村虚变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
样本量 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 | 649 |
拟合优度 | 0.951 | 0.952 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0.950 |
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