基于外部效应分析机井密度对地下水位的影响

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190316

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农用机井的迅猛发展使地下水灌溉在我国的粮食生产中发挥了重要作用,但同时也使地下水面临超采严重和水位下降的严峻形势。为了可持续地利用地下水资源,政府需采取必要措施。鉴于地下水使用中存在的外部效应,合理控制机井密度可能是值得政府考虑的重要举措之一。然而,现有文献对机井密度与地下水位之间的关系仍缺乏实证分析。本研究以兰考县为案例研究区,结合有关部门的机井普查数据和研究小组搜集的农户调研数据,利用空间分析和计量模型分析,发现机井密度与地下水位之间具有显著的关系。具体而言,当某一机井100 m半径范围内的机井数目每增加一眼,该机井的水位显著下降约15 cm;机井密度对水位的边际影响随半径范围的扩大而下降。研究建议：政府在今后应采取有关措施控制机井密度,加强地下水取水许可证制度建设等配套措施。

关键词: 人口、资源与环境经济学, 外部效应, 计量模型, 机井密度, 地下水位

Abstract:

Rapid expansions of wells for irrigation water have led to severe groundwater depletion, posing serious challenge to future's food security in China. Finding solutions is critical for sustainable use of groundwater in China. As groundwater is a typical pool resource and its use gives rise to externalities, controlling well density could be a plausible solution. However, little empirical evidence is available in existing literature in China to analyze the relationship between well density and water tables. This paper therefore aims to fill in some of the gaps in existing literature using Lankao county in Henan province as a case study area. Based on household survey data and well census data, the paper conducts spatial analysis and econometric analysis to examine the relationship. It finds that there is a significant relationship between well density and groundwater tables. Specifically, for each increase in the number of surrounding wells within a radius of 100 m, the water table significantly decreases by 15 cm at a 5% significance level. Moreover, the marginal effect of well density on water table decreases significantly when the radius becomes larger and larger. Based on the findings, the paper emphasizes the importance of the government to control well density and develops a groundwater water permit system for sustainable management of groundwater in China.

Key words: externality, econometric model, well density, groundwater table, population, resources and environmental economics, externality, econometric model, well density, groundwater table

龚亚珍, 关宝珠, 代喆, 张惠. 基于外部效应分析机井密度对地下水位的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 633-645.

GONG Ya-zhen, GUAN Bao-zhu, DAI Zhe, ZHANG Hui. Taking a perspective in externalities to analyze the effect of well density on groundwater table[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 633-645.

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[48]	国务院. 关于深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革加快培育农业农村发展新动能的若干意见. .
	国务院. 关于深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革加快培育农业农村发展新动能的若干意见. .
	[The State Council.Some opinions on deepening the agricultural supply-side structural reform to accelerate the development of new drivers of agricultural and rural development. .]
	[The State Council.Some opinions on deepening the agricultural supply-side structural reform to accelerate the development of new drivers of agricultural and rural development. .]
[49]	水利部, 国家发展改革委. “十三五”水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动方案. .
	水利部, 国家发展改革委. “十三五”水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动方案. .
	[Ministry of Water Resources, National Development and Reform Commission. The "13th five year" water resource consumption amount and intensity double control action plan. .]
	[Ministry of Water Resources, National Development and Reform Commission. The "13th five year" water resource consumption amount and intensity double control action plan. .]
[50]	水利部. 地下水管理条例: 征求意见稿. .
	水利部. 地下水管理条例: 征求意见稿. .
	[Ministry of Water Resources. Groundwater management ordinance: Draft. .]
	[Ministry of Water Resources. Groundwater management ordinance: Draft. .]
[51]	水利部. 机井技术规范. .
	水利部. 机井技术规范. .
	[Ministry of Water Resources. Technical criterion for tube wells..]
	[Ministry of Water Resources. Technical criterion for tube wells..]

半径大小/m	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
100	1	1	0	6
300	5	3	0	17
800	29	13	1	68
1000	43	18	4	100
1500	93	35	6	222
2000	160	56	13	359

半径大小/m	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
100	1	1	0	6
300	5	3	0	17
800	29	13	1	68
1000	43	18	4	100
1500	93	35	6	222
2000	160	56	13	359

变量名	均值	方差	最小值	最大值
机井埋深/m	10.82	5.49	2.00	25.00
地下水位是否下降（1=是;0=否）	0.79	0.41	0	1
机井深度/m	39.21	5.43	20	75
机井到黄河的距离/km	17.86	8.45	2.39	35.73
机井到G30的距离/km	21.26	10.29	0.08	38.44
机井到G1511的距离/km	5.79	4.33	0.03	17.84
样本量	649

变量名	均值	方差	最小值	最大值
机井埋深/m	10.82	5.49	2.00	25.00
地下水位是否下降（1=是;0=否）	0.79	0.41	0	1
机井深度/m	39.21	5.43	20	75
机井到黄河的距离/km	17.86	8.45	2.39	35.73
机井到G30的距离/km	21.26	10.29	0.08	38.44
机井到G1511的距离/km	5.79	4.33	0.03	17.84
样本量	649

	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
不同半径范围/m	100	300	800	1000	1500	2000
不同半径范围内的机井数	0.153^*	0.091^**	0.027^**	0.023^**	0.012^**	0.005
不同半径范围内的机井数	(0.083)	(0.041)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.006)	(0.003)
机井到黄河的距离/km	0.573^***	0.563^***	0.546^***	0.531^***	0.524^***	0.543^***
机井到黄河的距离/km	(0.146)	(0.140)	(0.137)	(0.133)	(0.130)	(0.137)
机井到G30的距离/km	-0.231^***	-0.243^***	-0.223^**	-0.210^**	-0.211^**	-0.221^**
机井到G30的距离/km	(0.088)	(0.086)	(0.092)	(0.096)	(0.096)	(0.093)
机井到G1511的距离/km	0.286	0.266	0.402^*	0.504^*	0.589*	0.472^*
机井到G1511的距离/km	(0.186)	(0.186)	(0.224)	(0.262)	(0.303)	(0.266)
G30和G1511交叉项	-0.017^***	-0.016^***	-0.0206^***	-0.023^***	-0.024^***	-0.021^***
G30和G1511交叉项	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)
常数项	5.819	6.056	5.254	4.797	4.601	5.000
常数项	(3.955)	(3.768)	(4.143)	(4.301)	(4.443)	(4.444)
是否控制村虚变量	是	是	是	是	是	是
样本量	649	649	649	649	649	649
拟合优度	0.951	0.952	0.951	0.951	0.951	0.950