黄土高原中尺度流域基流变化驱动因素分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190310

自然资源学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 563-572.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190310

黄土高原中尺度流域基流变化驱动因素分析

亢小语^1,^2,^3,⁴(), 张志强^1,^2,^3,⁴(), 陈立欣^1,^2,^3,⁴, 冷曼曼^1,^2,^3,⁴, 杨锋伟⁵

1. 北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京 100083
2. 国家林业局水土保持重点实验室,北京 100083
3. 山西吉县森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,吉县 042200
4. 北京市水土保持工程技术研究中心,北京 100083
5. 国家林业局桉树研究开发中心,湛江 524022

收稿日期:2018-09-02 修回日期:2018-12-17 出版日期:2019-03-28 发布日期:2019-03-28
作者简介:
作者简介：亢小语（1993- ）,女,辽宁鞍山人,硕士,研究方向为水土保持、生态水文与流域管理。E-mail: kxy942698@126.com
基金资助:
国家科技支撑重点项目（2015BAD07B030303）

Baseflow variation and driving factors for the last six decades in a watershed on the Loess Plateau, Northern China

KANG Xiao-yu^1,^2,^3,⁴(), ZHANG Zhi-qiang^1,^2,^3,⁴(), CHEN Li-xin^1,^2,^3,⁴, LENG Man-man^1,^2,^3,⁴, YANG Feng-wei⁵

1. College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2. Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation, State Forestry Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
3. National Field Research Station of Forest Ecosystem, Jixian 042200, Shanxi, China
4. Beijing Water and Soil Conservation Engineering Technology Research Center, Beijing 100083, China
5. National Forestry Administration Eucalyptus Research and Development Center, Zhanjiang 524022, Guangdong, China

Received:2018-09-02 Revised:2018-12-17 Online:2019-03-28 Published:2019-03-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对黄土高原基流的动态变化特征和驱动因素问题,以昕水河流域为例,采用数字滤波法（3次,α=0.925）分割基流,利用Mann-Kendall、Pettitt、小波分析和Hurst法分析该流域基流的趋势性、突变性、周期性和持续性特点,采用双累积曲线法对基流变化驱动因素进行分析。结果表明,昕水河流域多年平均基流量为0.45亿m³,基流指数为0.368;流域年基流量呈显著下降趋势（P<0.01）,在1985年发生突变;基流变化周期为27年,预计未来基流仍有进一步减少趋势（H>0.50）。流域降水和人类活动是基流变化的根本原因,人类活动通过植被覆盖度的变化、地下水的开发、煤矿开采和水土保持措施等方式影响基流。与第一阶段相比,第二、第三阶段降水和人类活动对基流的影响比例分别为25.89%、74.11%和0.37%、99.63%。进入21世纪,人类活动逐渐成为影响基流变化的主要因素。

关键词: 黄土高原, 中尺度流域, 基流变化, 驱动因素, 黄土高原, 中尺度流域, 基流变化, 驱动因素

Abstract:

As an important part of streamflow and water cycle in a watershed, base flow can not only provide reliable water supply but also maintain healthy watershed ecologically and environmentally. It is of great significance to divide the base flow accurately from the measured streamflow and to analyze its variations for understanding the dynamics of base flow changes and managing water resources. We used the measured daily streamflow data from Daning Hydrological Station of Xinshui River Basin (3992 km²) located on the Loess Plateau of northern China, climate data measured by meteorological stations and raingauge stations located within and in the vicinity of the basin from 1955 to 2015 and the GIMMS-NDVI data to explore the dynamic changes of base flow. Base flow partitioning was conducted by using digital filtering method (3 times, α=0.925) from the daily streamflow data. Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test, wavelet analysis and Hurst test were performed to explore the base flow changes in the aspects of trend, turning point, periodic behavior, and sustainability at annual scales. Averaged annual base flow from the basin was 45 million m³ and the base flow index (BFI) was 0.368 between 1955 and 2015. There were significant decreasing trends for yearly base flow (P<0.01), with the turning points occurring in the year of 1985. In addition, a 27-year periodical cycle was observed for annual base flow. It was predicted that the annual base flow will be further reduced in the future as indicated by a positive correlation between historical change and the future regime (H>0.50). Double mass analysis indicated that climate variability and human activities have contributed to a significant decrease in base flow. Precipitation was the major climate factor rather than temperature, which caused the decrease of base flow. The base flow is divided into three stages by the double mass curve method. Human activities affected the base flow by changing vegetation coverage, exploiting groundwater, mining coals and taking measures in soil and water conservation. Compared with the first stage, the proportion of precipitation and human activities in the second and third stages was 25.89%, 74.11% and 0.37%, 99.63%, respectively. There has been an increased impact of human activities on the decreased base flow since the beginning of the 21st century.

Key words: Loess Plateau, middle-scale watershed, base flow variation, driving factors, Loess Plateau, middle-scale watershed, base flow variation, driving factors

亢小语, 张志强, 陈立欣, 冷曼曼, 杨锋伟. 黄土高原中尺度流域基流变化驱动因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 563-572.

KANG Xiao-yu, ZHANG Zhi-qiang, CHEN Li-xin, LENG Man-man, YANG Feng-wei. Baseflow variation and driving factors for the last six decades in a watershed on the Loess Plateau, Northern China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 563-572.

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站别	站名	高程/m	经度/°	纬度/°	数据序列/年
雨量、气象站	下李	—	111.02	36.81	1977-2014（降水）
	三多	—	110.82	36.39	1977-2014（降水）
	交口	—	111.19	36.99	1977-2014（降水）
	大宁	765.9	110.45	36.28	1973-2006（气象） 1958-2015（降水）
	侯马	433.8	111.37	35.65	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	吉县	851.3	110.68	36.08	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	临汾	449.5	111.50	36.05	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	隰县	1052.7	110.90	36.78	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	太谷	785.8	111.92	37.03	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	离石	950.8	111.10	37.05	1959-2016（降水、气象）
	蒲县	1030.6	111.06	36.24	1960-2006（气象）
水文站	大宁	765.9	110.45	36.28	1955-2015

站别	站名	高程/m	经度/°	纬度/°	数据序列/年
雨量、气象站	下李	—	111.02	36.81	1977-2014（降水）
	三多	—	110.82	36.39	1977-2014（降水）
	交口	—	111.19	36.99	1977-2014（降水）
	大宁	765.9	110.45	36.28	1973-2006（气象） 1958-2015（降水）
	侯马	433.8	111.37	35.65	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	吉县	851.3	110.68	36.08	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	临汾	449.5	111.50	36.05	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	隰县	1052.7	110.90	36.78	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	太谷	785.8	111.92	37.03	1958-2016（降水、气象）
	离石	950.8	111.10	37.05	1959-2016（降水、气象）
	蒲县	1030.6	111.06	36.24	1960-2006（气象）
水文站	大宁	765.9	110.45	36.28	1955-2015

因子	MK检验			Pettitt检验		H指数
因子	Z值	显著性/%	Sen's	年份	显著性/%	H指数
降水	-1.53	90	-1.48	1978	95	0.51>0.50正持续效应
潜在蒸散发	-2.51	99	-1.36	2002	95	0.61>0.50正持续效应

因子	MK检验			Pettitt检验		H指数
因子	Z值	显著性/%	Sen's	年份	显著性/%	H指数
降水	-1.53	90	-1.48	1978	95	0.51>0.50正持续效应
潜在蒸散发	-2.51	99	-1.36	2002	95	0.61>0.50正持续效应

时期	降水				基流
时期	累积斜率	均值 /mm	降水变化量/mm	降水变化率/%	累积斜率	均值 /mm	基流变化量/mm	基流变化率/%
第一阶段	517.08	529.31	—	—	13.95	14.43	—	—
第二阶段	454.72	453.59	-75.72	-14.31	7.45	7.30	-7.13	-49.41
第三阶段	516.42	519.94	-9.37	-1.77	9.16	9.37	-5.06	-35.07

黄土高原中尺度流域基流变化驱动因素分析

Baseflow variation and driving factors for the last six decades in a watershed on the Loess Plateau, Northern China

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