基于破产模型的新增建设用地指标分解方法——以湖北省枣阳市为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190305

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

传统新增建设用地指标分解方法存在测算指标时视角单一和分解指标时行政力量干预严重等问题。基于公平和效率的思想引入破产模型,以湖北枣阳为研究对象,运用6种破产模型解对其新增建设用地指标进行分解,并创造性地运用有向图博弈理论对各种分解结果进行比较分析。研究结果表明：（1）比例法则和Piniles法则符合“公平优先”主张,适用于在经济相对发达的发展阶段和地区应用均衡发展策略;（2）限制均分损失法则和Talmud法则符合“效率优先”主张,适用于在经济相对落后的发展阶段和地区应用非均衡发展策略;（3）限制平等法则和限制均分收益法则适用于有发展条件的贫困地区应用重点扶持的发展策略。新方法不仅有效规避了传统方法存在的问题,还为发展策略选择提供了多种方案。

关键词: 破产模型, 有向图博弈, 新增建设用地, 指标分解, 枣阳, 破产模型, 有向图博弈, 新增建设用地, 指标分解, 枣阳

Abstract:

The traditional methods for allocating the quota of newly-added construction land have many deficiencies. For example, the research perspective is single and the administrative force intervened severely. This paper, based on the idea of fairness and efficiency, uses some rules of solution to bankruptcy model to allocate the quota of newly-added construction land in Zaoyang city of Hubei province, and applies digraph game theory to compare various results of the allocation creatively. The basic data of the case analysis come from "The Outline of the General Land Use Planning in Zaoyang city (2006-2020)" and its related research papers. First of all, the total demand for newly-added construction land in the whole city in 2020 is predicted to be 3976.66 hm² by using the polynomial model that is based on the data of the construction land during 1996-2005. Secondly, the requirements of 16 subordinate administrative districts were determined by the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, and then, a total of 2147.09 hm² of newly-added construction land was decomposed among the subordinate districts by six rules of solution to bankruptcy model. Finally, the characteristics of various allocated schemes are analyzed according to the digraph game method. The concept corresponding to fairness and efficiency is balanced development and unbalanced development. Different stages and regions may follow different development ideas in practice of the general land use planning. The research results show that: (1) The proportional rule and the Piniles rule accord with the proposition of "fairness priority", which is applicable to the balanced development strategy in the development stage and region of relatively developed economy; (2) The constrained equal losses rule and the Talmud rule accord with the idea of "efficiency priority", which is applicable to the unbalanced development strategy in the development stage and region of relatively backward economy; (3) The constrained equal awards rule and the constrained egalitarian rule are applicable to the key support strategy in poverty-stricken areas. The new method not only avoids the problems caused by traditional methods, but also provides some choices for regional development strategy. The new method proposed in this paper can not only be used in new round of the general land use planning, but also be widely used in the distribution of public resources.

Key words: bankruptcy model, digraph game, newly-added construction land, quota allocation, Zaoyang, bankruptcy model, digraph game, newly-added construction land, quota allocation, Zaoyang

左文进, 胡勋锋, 李登峰. 基于破产模型的新增建设用地指标分解方法——以湖北省枣阳市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 501-509.

ZUO Wen-jin, HU Xun-feng, LI Deng-feng. The quota allocation method of newly-added construction land based on the bankruptcy model: A case study of Zaoyang city, Hubei province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 501-509.

图/表 12

表1

表2

表3

建设用地规模发展趋势预测模型"

类别	指数	线性	对数	多项式	幂
模型	$y = 36826 e 0.0021 x$	$y = 79.97 x + 36823$	$y = 298.54 ln x + 36812$	$y = 7.6098 x 2 - 3.7386 x + 36991$	$y = 36814 x 0.008$
相关性	$R 2 = 0.6799$	$R 2 = 0.6797$	$R 2 = 0.5552$	$R 2 = 0.7191$	$R 2 = 0.5562$

表3

建设用地规模发展趋势预测模型"

类别	指数	线性	对数	多项式	幂
模型	$y = 36826 e 0.0021 x$	$y = 79.97 x + 36823$	$y = 298.54 ln x + 36812$	$y = 7.6098 x 2 - 3.7386 x + 36991$	$y = 36814 x 0.008$
相关性	$R 2 = 0.6799$	$R 2 = 0.6797$	$R 2 = 0.5552$	$R 2 = 0.7191$	$R 2 = 0.5562$

表3

表4

表5

基于破产模型的新增建设用地指标分解结果"

行政区	$P i (N, c, E)$		$CE A i (N, c, E)$		$CE L i (N, c, E)$		$C E i (N, c, E)$		$Pi n i (N, c, E)$		$T i (N, c, E)$
行政区	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%
南城办	321.91	54	144.48	24	477.77	80	298.06	50	307.98	52	384.61	65
北城办	298.64	54	144.48	26	434.67	79	276.51	50	286.43	52	341.51	62
吴店镇	235.63	54	144.48	33	319.10	73	218.72	50	228.64	52	225.93	52
开发区	211.15	54	144.48	37	272.52	70	195.43	50	205.35	53	195.43	50
环城办	146.81	54	144.48	53	153.41	56	135.87	50	145.80	54	135.87	50
兴隆镇	122.77	54	144.48	64	109.09	48	113.72	50	123.64	54	113.72	50
七方镇	117.51	54	144.48	66	99.18	46	108.76	50	118.68	55	108.76	50
太平镇	108.82	54	144.48	72	83.28	41	100.81	50	110.73	55	100.81	50
琚湾镇	104.59	54	144.48	74	75.72	39	97.03	50	106.95	55	97.03	50
刘升镇	86.19	54	144.48	91	41.31	26	87.97	55	89.74	56	79.82	50
杨当镇	86.29	54	144.48	90	41.33	26	87.97	55	89.75	56	79.83	50
熊集镇	83.37	54	144.48	94	35.96	23	87.97	57	87.07	56	77.15	50
新市镇	65.94	54	122.08	100	3.75	3	87.97	72	70.96	58	61.04	50
鹿头镇	62.98	54	116.22	100	0	0	87.97	76	68.03	59	58.11	50
王城镇	54.36	54	100.61	100	0	0	87.97	87	60.23	60	50.30	50
平林镇	40.13	54	74.36	100	0	0	74.36	100	47.10	63	37.18	50

表5

基于破产模型的新增建设用地指标分解结果"

行政区	$P i (N, c, E)$		$CE A i (N, c, E)$		$CE L i (N, c, E)$		$C E i (N, c, E)$		$Pi n i (N, c, E)$		$T i (N, c, E)$
行政区	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%	指标 /hm²	比例 /%
南城办	321.91	54	144.48	24	477.77	80	298.06	50	307.98	52	384.61	65
北城办	298.64	54	144.48	26	434.67	79	276.51	50	286.43	52	341.51	62
吴店镇	235.63	54	144.48	33	319.10	73	218.72	50	228.64	52	225.93	52
开发区	211.15	54	144.48	37	272.52	70	195.43	50	205.35	53	195.43	50
环城办	146.81	54	144.48	53	153.41	56	135.87	50	145.80	54	135.87	50
兴隆镇	122.77	54	144.48	64	109.09	48	113.72	50	123.64	54	113.72	50
七方镇	117.51	54	144.48	66	99.18	46	108.76	50	118.68	55	108.76	50
太平镇	108.82	54	144.48	72	83.28	41	100.81	50	110.73	55	100.81	50
琚湾镇	104.59	54	144.48	74	75.72	39	97.03	50	106.95	55	97.03	50
刘升镇	86.19	54	144.48	91	41.31	26	87.97	55	89.74	56	79.82	50
杨当镇	86.29	54	144.48	90	41.33	26	87.97	55	89.75	56	79.83	50
熊集镇	83.37	54	144.48	94	35.96	23	87.97	57	87.07	56	77.15	50
新市镇	65.94	54	122.08	100	3.75	3	87.97	72	70.96	58	61.04	50
鹿头镇	62.98	54	116.22	100	0	0	87.97	76	68.03	59	58.11	50
王城镇	54.36	54	100.61	100	0	0	87.97	87	60.23	60	50.30	50
平林镇	40.13	54	74.36	100	0	0	74.36	100	47.10	63	37.18	50

表5

表6

新增建设用地指标破产模型解的β值"

法则	$P$	$CEA$	$CEL$	$CE$	$Pin$	$T$
$β$ 值	4.43	6.20	11.83	6.50	3.87	7.73

表6

新增建设用地指标破产模型解的β值"

法则	$P$	$CEA$	$CEL$	$CE$	$Pin$	$T$
$β$ 值	4.43	6.20	11.83	6.50	3.87	7.73

表6

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