中国煤炭供应行业格局优化及排放

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190303

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业正在发生巨大的变化。为降低中国未来煤炭供应行业总成本,在收集和分析行业现有格局及相关政策的基础上,研究优化未来中国煤炭产、运格局;并通过分析各地区煤炭供应行业的各个环节,最终核算出碳排放系数,再利用这些系数对优化格局下的煤炭活动产生的碳排放进行测算。结果显示：（1）在现有格局的基础上,在资源和政策的约束下,中国煤炭开发将不断集中化,山西、陕西、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆的开发规模不断扩大,到2030年占全国总生产比例将近88%,比2015年提高17%;（2）煤炭调运压力先增后减,新疆、西南、东北等地区铁路运力不足,需不同程度地扩能;（3）2020年煤炭供应行业总排放约6.41亿t CO₂当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低8.75%,2030年总排放约5.26亿t CO₂当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低15.34%。在此基础上具体分析各地区煤炭生产、运输及排放情况,并提出了中国煤炭产业发展的相关对策建议,为煤炭行业相关决策和碳减排工作提供一定的支撑。

关键词: 煤炭供应, 格局优化, 碳排放, 政策约束

Abstract:

As the economic development of China enters into a new normal, coal industry is changing greatly. To reduce the total cost of the coal supply industry in China and calculate the carbon emission of it, we developed the R-CSSM model based on linear program method to optimize the future pattern of China's coal production and transportation on the basis of the collection and analysis of the present situation of the coal supply industry and relevant policy. The carbon emission coefficients were calculated after we examined each link of the coal supply industry in different regions. Then we used these coefficients to calculate the carbon emissions from coal related activities under the optimized pattern. The results show that, under the existing arrangements and the constraints of resources and policy, China's coal production will continue to be centralized, the coal production of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang will continue to rise, accounting for nearly 88% of all coal production in China by 2030, and this ratio rises by 17% compared with 2015. The pressure of coal transportation would increase first and then decrease, the railway transportation ability of Xinjiang, and southwestern and northeastern China for coal will be low, and railway expansion and reconstruction project need to be taken in these places. By 2020, the coal supply industry would have a total emission of about 641 million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent, compared with 2015, and emission per unit of supply will fall by 8.75%. And the coal supply industry would have a total emission of about 526 million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 2030, compared with 2015, emission per unit of supply will fall by 15.34%. Based on that, the coal production capacity, the coal transportation capacity, and the carbon emissions of coal supply industry in each province were analyzed. And the relevant suggestions for the development of China's coal industry have been put forward, which can provide a good support for the related decision making and the carbon emission reduction of coal industry.

Key words: coal supply, pattern optimization, carbon emission, policy constraints

柳君波, 高俊莲, 徐向阳. 中国煤炭供应行业格局优化及排放[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 473-486.

LIU Jun-bo, GAO Jun-lian, XU Xiang-yang. Pattern optimization and carbon emissions of coal supply in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 473-486.

图/表 12

图1

表1

2020年各省煤炭产能"

省区	“十三五”政策	EM_i	政策来源
北京	十三五期间逐步退出煤炭生产	0	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
陕西	产能控制在66000万t左右	66000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
宁夏	宁东煤炭基地产量9000万t左右	10700	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
山东	煤炭产量压缩到10000万t左右	12000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
河南	河南煤炭基地产量13500万t左右	16000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
黑龙江	黑龙江维持2015年现有生产规模	8000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
新疆	新疆煤炭产量25000万t左右	30000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
贵州	云贵煤炭基地产量26000万t左右	31000	煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
安徽	安徽煤炭产量控制在13000万t左右	15500	安徽省能源发展“十三五”规划
福建	十三五期间压缩产能600万t以上	1500	福建“十三五”能源发展专项规划
河北	煤炭产能控制在7000万t左右	7000	河北煤炭工业发展“十三五”规划
四川	全省生产原煤4500万t左右	5400	四川省“十三五”能源发展规划
江西	去产能1868万t	1670	江西省“十三五”煤炭发展规划
湖南	湖南省煤炭产量2500万t左右	3000	湖南省煤炭“十三五”规划
重庆	预测煤炭产量2000万t左右	2400	重庆能源集团事业发展部
江苏	江苏省煤炭产量700万t左右	850	江苏省“十三五”规划
内蒙古	内蒙古煤炭产能130000万t左右	130000	内蒙古“十三五”规划
山西	山西省煤炭产能120000万t左右	120000	山西“十三五”规划
湖北	“十三五”期间去产能800万t	1400	湖北省政府工作报告
云南	煤炭产能不超过7000万t	7000	云南省去产能规划
甘肃	退出产能1000万t	5560	甘肃省工业领域去产能去库存降成本实施方案

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表3

图2

图3

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图6

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省区	涌出系数/(kg/t)	年增长率 /%	省区	涌出系数/(kg/t)	年增长率 /%	省区	涌出系数/(kg/t)	年增长率 /%
北京	0.495	0	福建	0.495	0	云南	6.137	2.354
河北	2.501	-2.950	江西	6.646	-4.262	重庆	22.908	0.778
山西	4.387	0.122	山东	0.819	2.536	陕西	0.931	0
内蒙古	0.635	3.041	河南	8.671	-0.454	甘肃	1.284	0
辽宁	7.270	-2.218	湖北	5.528	3.071	宁夏	6.020	0
吉林	3.787	-2.127	湖南	6.239	-2.890	青海	0.495	0
黑龙江	12.733	7.353	广西	0.263	-15.588	新疆	2.105	0
江苏	2.636	-3.094	四川	8.514	0.130
安徽	12.503	-3.851	贵州	15.449	-2.038

省区	间接排放	省区	间接排放	省区	间接排放	省区	间接排放	省区	间接排放
北京	135.844	吉林	284.391	江西	211.284	广西	215.645	陕西	198.699
河北	240.014	黑龙江	231.246	山东	208.645	四川	256.605	甘肃	217.530
山西	234.758	江苏	199.336	河南	215.762	贵州	211.874	宁夏	234.522
内蒙古	276.638	安徽	218.708	湖北	205.440	云南	309.373	青海	241.852
辽宁	272.278	福建	203.554	湖南	225.849	重庆	259.857	新疆	226.674