自然资源学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 473-486.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190303

• 资源利用与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国煤炭供应行业格局优化及排放

柳君波1(), 高俊莲1,2, 徐向阳1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京 100083
    2. 中国矿业大学(北京)资源与环境政策研究中心,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-02 修回日期:2018-11-09 出版日期:2019-03-28 发布日期:2019-03-28
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:柳君波(1993- ),男,山东日照人,博士,研究方向为资源环境模型。E-mail: liujunbo6339@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    区域大气承载力与空气质量改善路径课题(DQGG0302)

Pattern optimization and carbon emissions of coal supply in China

LIU Jun-bo1(), GAO Jun-lian1,2, XU Xiang-yang1,2()   

  1. 1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China
    2. Center for Resources and Environmental Policy Research, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2018-07-02 Revised:2018-11-09 Online:2019-03-28 Published:2019-03-28

摘要:

随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业正在发生巨大的变化。为降低中国未来煤炭供应行业总成本,在收集和分析行业现有格局及相关政策的基础上,研究优化未来中国煤炭产、运格局;并通过分析各地区煤炭供应行业的各个环节,最终核算出碳排放系数,再利用这些系数对优化格局下的煤炭活动产生的碳排放进行测算。结果显示:(1)在现有格局的基础上,在资源和政策的约束下,中国煤炭开发将不断集中化,山西、陕西、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆的开发规模不断扩大,到2030年占全国总生产比例将近88%,比2015年提高17%;(2)煤炭调运压力先增后减,新疆、西南、东北等地区铁路运力不足,需不同程度地扩能;(3)2020年煤炭供应行业总排放约6.41亿t CO2当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低8.75%,2030年总排放约5.26亿t CO2当量,单位供应排放比2015年降低15.34%。在此基础上具体分析各地区煤炭生产、运输及排放情况,并提出了中国煤炭产业发展的相关对策建议,为煤炭行业相关决策和碳减排工作提供一定的支撑。

关键词: 煤炭供应, 格局优化, 碳排放, 政策约束

Abstract:

As the economic development of China enters into a new normal, coal industry is changing greatly. To reduce the total cost of the coal supply industry in China and calculate the carbon emission of it, we developed the R-CSSM model based on linear program method to optimize the future pattern of China's coal production and transportation on the basis of the collection and analysis of the present situation of the coal supply industry and relevant policy. The carbon emission coefficients were calculated after we examined each link of the coal supply industry in different regions. Then we used these coefficients to calculate the carbon emissions from coal related activities under the optimized pattern. The results show that, under the existing arrangements and the constraints of resources and policy, China's coal production will continue to be centralized, the coal production of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang will continue to rise, accounting for nearly 88% of all coal production in China by 2030, and this ratio rises by 17% compared with 2015. The pressure of coal transportation would increase first and then decrease, the railway transportation ability of Xinjiang, and southwestern and northeastern China for coal will be low, and railway expansion and reconstruction project need to be taken in these places. By 2020, the coal supply industry would have a total emission of about 641 million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent, compared with 2015, and emission per unit of supply will fall by 8.75%. And the coal supply industry would have a total emission of about 526 million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 2030, compared with 2015, emission per unit of supply will fall by 15.34%. Based on that, the coal production capacity, the coal transportation capacity, and the carbon emissions of coal supply industry in each province were analyzed. And the relevant suggestions for the development of China's coal industry have been put forward, which can provide a good support for the related decision making and the carbon emission reduction of coal industry.

Key words: coal supply, pattern optimization, carbon emission, policy constraints