区域粮食储备的地区差异与规模确定分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190302

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

粮食储备对维护粮食安全和保障社会安定具有重大意义。在我国粮食产供需的时空差异持续加剧背景下,以省域为单元,利用空间探索性分析法研究我国近年来区域粮食储备的时空演变和地区差异,并利用空间计量模型对区域粮食储备规模的影响因素进行分析,给出分区域的粮食储备规模确定方式。结果发现：我国粮食储备具有显著空间正相关性,高储备区向东北地区扩展,低储备区进一步向西部地区转移,两者的显著集聚范围逐渐扩大,致使地区差异逐渐增大;区域粮食储备规模与粮食生产能力、人口规模、经济发展、灾害影响、交通条件和社会影响力紧密相关;综合考虑空间效应和相关因素确定区域粮食储备规模,为我国分区域粮食储备研究提供新思路。

关键词: 区域粮食储备, 地区差异, 空间计量, 储备规模

Abstract:

Grain reserves are of great significance to the maintenance of food security and social stability. Recently, the gap between the time and space in production, supply, and demand of grain in China has been continuously increasing, which leads to the unreasonable regional grain reserves scale problems of China. Taking province as research unit, this paper analyzed the temporal evolution and regional differences of regional grain reserves by utilizing spatial exploratory analysis and dissected influencing factors of regional grain reserves scale through spatial econometric model. It provided a definite method of regional grain reserves scale for different sub-regions. The results showed that: China's grain reserves spatial correlation index is bigger than zero and increased year by year, indicating that different regional reserves scales have significant positive spatial correlation. The overall distribution of China's grain reserves shows a polarization from east to west and has undergone a significant spatial-temporal evolution with high reserves area expanding to the northeast and low reserves area transferring to the west, which caused the increasing regional differences. Regression analysis shows that the scale of regional grain reserves is closely related to grain production capacity, population size, economic development, disaster influence, transportation conditions and social influence. The regression coefficient of the spatial lag term was 0.2451, manifesting that the geographical positive spatial correlation of regional reserves scales transmits through adjacent areas. Based on this, this paper put forward the prediction range of regional grain reserves scale in 2020 by considering the spatial effect and correlative factors, which provides a new perspective for researches on regional grain reserves in China.

Key words: regional grain reserves, spatial differences, spatial econometric model, reserves scale

韩建军, 邹亚丽. 区域粮食储备的地区差异与规模确定分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(3): 464-472.

HAN Jian-jun, ZOU Ya-li. Spatial differences and scale determination of regional grain reserves[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(3): 464-472.

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研究假设	变量选择	变量符号
粮食生产能力影响粮食储备规模	人均粮食产量	LSSC
人口规模影响粮食储备规模	人口密度	RKMD
经济发展水平影响粮食储备规模	人均GDP	JJSP
社会影响力影响粮食储备规模	政治、文化等指标量化	SHYX
交通通达能力影响粮食储备规模	单位面积的交通线路	JTNL
灾害影响粮食储备规模	灾情指数	ZHYX

年份	2008	2012	2015
Moran's I	0.2094	0.3263	0.3372
P	0.0100	0.0010	0.0010

储备分布	2008年	2012年	2015年
低储备区	西藏、青海、宁夏、贵州、海南	西藏、青海、宁夏、贵州、重庆、海南	西藏、青海、宁夏、贵州、云南、重庆、海南
次低储备区	北京、天津、上海、浙江、福建、新疆、甘肃、陕西、重庆、云南	上海、浙江、新疆、甘肃、山西、云南、广西	上海、浙江、新疆、甘肃、山西、广西
次高储备区	内蒙古、吉林、辽宁、河北、山西、湖南、江西、广西、广东	北京、天津、内蒙古、陕西、四川、湖北、湖南、江西、广东、福建	北京、天津、内蒙古、陕西、四川、湖北、湖南、江西、广东、福建
高储备区	黑龙江、山东、河南、江苏、安徽、湖北、四川	黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河北、山东、河南、江苏、安徽	黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河北、河南、山东、安徽、江苏

集聚类型	2008年	2012年	2015年
H-H	山西、河南、山东、湖北、安徽	吉林、辽宁、河北、河南、山东、湖北、安徽	吉林、辽宁、河北、山西、河南、山东、安徽
L-L	新疆	新疆、西藏、青海	新疆
H-L	四川	四川	四川
L-H	无	山西	无
不显著	以上之外的其他省份	以上之外的其他省份	以上之外的其他省份

空间依赖性检验	自由度	统计值	P值
Moran指数	0.0799	1.6360	0.1000^*
LMLag	1	8.9840	0.0027^***
R-LMLag	1	8.6425	0.0033^***
LMErr	1	0.4230	0.5154
R-LMErr	1	0.0816	0.7752
LM（SARMR）	2	9.0656	0.0108^**