非农就业对南方集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190202

自然资源学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 236-249.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190202

非农就业对南方集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响

朱臻^1,²(), 徐志刚³, 沈月琴²(), 占菁⁴, 李博伟¹, 陈梅¹

1. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院,临安 311300
2. 浙江省重点培育智库,浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,临安 311300
3. 南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京 210095
4. 开化县林业局,开化 324300

收稿日期:2018-07-09 修回日期:2018-11-26 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
作者简介:
作者简介：朱臻（1980- ）,男,浙江嘉兴人,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为林业经济、资源与环境经济。E-mail: zhuzhen8149278@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71773116）;浙江省科技厅软科学项目（2017C35054）;浙江省社科规划“之江青年课题”项目（16ZJQN044YB）

Effect of off-farm employment on the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area

ZHU Zhen^1,²(), XU Zhi-gang³, SHEN Yue-qin²(), ZHAN Jing⁴, LI Bo-wei¹, CHEN Mei¹

1. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University, Lin'an 311300, Zhejiang, China;
2. Zhejiang Province Key Cultivating Think Tank, Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A&F University, Lin'an 311300, Zhejiang, China;
3. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China
4. Kaihua Forestry Administration, Kaihua 324300, Zhejiang, China

Received:2018-07-09 Revised:2018-11-26 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28
Contact: SHEN Yue-qin E-mail:zhuzhen8149278@126.com;shenyueqin-zj@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在中国农村劳动力非农就业不断加速的背景下,探讨非农就业对集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响机制,有助于明确不同规模经营主体今后的用材林营林目标和林业在山区未来的经营发展模式,同时为林业规模化经营的合理性提供客观依据。基于劳动力转移新经济学理论,通过对浙江、江西和福建三省450户林农的调查,收集杉木营林的地块投入产出数据,在此基础上,运用Faustmann模型计算规模户与普通户的理论最优轮伐期,运用计量模型分析非农就业对集体林区不同规模林农采伐轮伐期的影响机制。研究结果发现,普通户和规模户的理论最优轮伐期趋同;非农就业的劳动力流失效应造成普通户营林的预期主伐时间显著短于理论最优轮伐期,而规模户非农就业带来的收入效应造成其采伐决策接近于理论最优轮伐期。在农村非农就业不断增加背景下,南方集体林区规模化经营的方式有利于接近最优采伐决策,更适合于培育大径材,增加林业生态和经济效益。

关键词: 新劳动力转移经济学, 集体林区, 采伐决策, 非农就业, Faustmann模型

Abstract:

To discuss how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area is valuable to clarifying the forest management objectives for households and the trend of forest management ownership in collective forest area. This can give evidence for supporting the large-scale forest ownership under the background of the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China. Based on the theory of New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM), this paper collected the input-output data at plot level of Chinese fir management through a survey of 50 rural households in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces. Then, it calculated the optimal rotation age of large- and small-scale households with the Faustmann model, and used the econometric model to analyze how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales. The results show that there is no obvious difference of optimal rotation age between large- and small-scale households. The migration effect of off-farm employment causing the expect rotation age is obviously smaller than optimal rotation age for small-scale households; on the contrary, the income effect of off-farm employment caused the expect rotation age is significantly closely related with optimal rotation age for large-scale households. Large-scale ownership is more suitable for raising large timbers and increasing economic and ecological value in collective forest area under the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China.

Key words: new economics of labor migration, collective forest area, harvesting decision-making, off-farm employment, Faustmann model

朱臻, 徐志刚, 沈月琴, 占菁, 李博伟, 陈梅. 非农就业对南方集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(2): 236-249.

ZHU Zhen, XU Zhi-gang, SHEN Yue-qin, ZHAN Jing, LI Bo-wei, CHEN Mei. Effect of off-farm employment on the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(2): 236-249.

图/表 5

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

非农就业对不同规模林农营林采伐决策模型估计结果"

变量指标		因变量：最大地块预期主伐时间与理论最优轮伐期离差(年)
		分效应			总效应
		规模户	普通户		规模户	普通户
关键变量
家庭人均非农收入(千元）		-0.004^** (0.002)	-0.005^* (0.003)
家庭成员平均非农时间(月)		0.175^* (0.100)	0.131^** (0.066)
是否非农就业户(1=是;0=否)					-1.575^* (0.899)	0.925^*
是否非农就业户(1=是;0=否)					-1.575^* (0.899)	(0.548)
地块经营特征变量
单位面积种植密度(株/亩)		0.018^*** (0.005)	0.008^***		0.016^***	0.008^***
单位面积种植密度(株/亩)		0.018^*** (0.005)	(0.003)		(0.005)	(0.003)
最大地块面积(亩)		-0.0004 (0.001)	-0.017		-0.0001 (0.001)	-0.020
最大地块面积(亩)		-0.0004 (0.001)	(0.013)		-0.0001 (0.001)	(0.013)
最大地块离最近公路距离(km)		-0.113	0.033		-0.085	0.038
最大地块离最近公路距离(km)		(0.092)	(0.101)		(0.092)	(0.101)
最大地块立地质量(以质量中等为参照组)
好		1.313^* (0.707)	-0.433		1.427^**	-0.456
好		1.313^* (0.707)	(0.486)		(0.714)	(0.488)
差		1.606 (1.169)	-0.232		1.201	-0.173
差		1.606 (1.169)	(0.731)		(1.179)	(0.735)
最大地块产权形式 (承包山=1;非承包山=0)		1.907^** (0.837)	1.534^*** (0.553)		1.816^** (0.839)	1.469^*** (0.555)
外部政策变量
享受林业补贴政策(是=1;否=0)		-0.580 (0.675)	-0.117 (0.503)		-0.590 (0.673)	-0.225 (0.502)
享受林业补贴政策(是=1;否=0)	林农家庭特征变量	-0.580 (0.675)	-0.117 (0.503)		-0.590 (0.673)	-0.225 (0.502)
家中是否有人担任村干部 (1=是;0=否)		0.286	-0.221		0.892	-0.268
家中是否有人担任村干部 (1=是;0=否)		(0.699)	(0.498)		(0.702)	(0.500)
户主受教育程度(以小学为参照组)
初中		0.478 (0.766)	-0.498 (0.511)		0.746 (0.772)	-0.498 (0.513)
高中及以上		0.478 (0.766)	-0.498 (0.511)	0.242	0.746 (0.772)	-0.498 (0.513)	-1.265	0.750	-1.402
		(1.627)	(1.052)		(1.645)	(1.058)
户主年龄(年)		-0.052	-0.044		-0.054	-0.041
		(0.039)	(0.027)		(0.040)	(0.027)
林业收入占家庭收入比例(%)		-1.997^* (1.039)	-2.659^***		-1.979^*	-2.302^**
林业收入占家庭收入比例(%)		-1.997^* (1.039)	(0.952)		(1.085)	(0.942)
地域变量(以浙江省为参照组)
福建省		-1.560 (1.044)	-2.867^*** (0.712)		-2.520^** (1.125)	-2.533^*** (0.716)
江西省		-2.673^** (1.030)	-3.953^*** (0.691)		-2.789^*** (1.055)	-3.532^*** (0.688)
常数项		5.706^**	10.707^***		7.339^**	10.038^***
		(2.741)	(2.020)		(2.933)	(2.025)
样本数		138	312		138	312
R-squared		0.255	0.297		0.230	0.288

表5

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省份	林农类型	户主平均年龄 (岁)	户均家庭非农收入 (元)	户均非农劳动时间 (月)	户均林业收入占家庭收入比例(%)	户均营林面积 (hm²)	平均最大地块面积(hm²)	最大地块离公路平均距离(km)	最大地块单位面积种植密度(株·hm²)	最大地块预期采伐时间(年)	享受林业补贴政策比例(%)
浙江省	普通户	56.7	43026	8.7	15.0	2.2	0.9	1.7	3406	16.8	31.0
	规模户	54.9	70904	5.2	25.4	31.3	9.5	1.7	2637	21.1	61.5
	T均值检验	1.6	-4.3^***	-0.1	-3.1^***	-10.9^***	-7.1^***	-0.1	5.7^***	-2.1^**	-5.2^***
	全部	56.2	52086	6.9	18.2	11.0	3.5	1.7	3173	18.9	40.2
福建省	普通户	50.1	28206	8.2	26.4	2.3	1.4	2.7	3126	18.8	16.0
	规模户	45.8	50385	1.5	53.1	24.1	6.7	1.8	2606	21.1	29.2
	T均值检验	1.7^*	-1.5	1.83^*	-3.3^***	-5.2^***	-5.4^***	1.2	2.9^***	1.80^*	-1.3
	全部	48.7	35399	4.9	35.0	9.4	3.1	2.4	2958	19.9	20.3
江西省	普通户	48.5	20475	8.0	12.4	1.6	0.5	2.2	3592	17.5	30.8
	规模户	46.4	35783	4.1	25.0	21.4	6.2	3.5	2638	21.9	39.1
	T均值检验	0.9	-1.77^*	-0.09	-2.1^**	-2.7^***	-3.7^***	-1.1	2.8^***	0.48	-0.7
	全部	47.9	25169	6.0	16.2	7.7	2.2	2.6	3300	19.7	33.3
总体	普通户	54.3	35920	8.2	16.4	2.1	0.9	1.9	3392	17.7	28.5
	规模户	51.9	61482	4.4	30.1	28.4	8.4	2.0	2632	21.4	52.2
	T均值检验	2.4^**	-4.4^***	0.7	-4.8^***	-11.6^***	-8.7^***	-0.3	6.9^***	-1.24	-4.9^***
	全部	53.5	43759	6.3	20.6	10.2	3.2	2.0	3159	19.5	35.8

省份	类型	单位面积成本投入阶段划分			单位面积成本结构划分		单位面积总成本 (元/hm²)	单位面积产出
省份	类型	平均种植成本 (元/hm²)	平均抚育成本 (元/hm²)	平均采伐成本 (元/hm²)	劳动力总成本^⑥ (元/hm²)	生产资料成本 (元/hm²)	单位面积总成本 (元/hm²)	材积 (m³/hm²)	预期收入净现值(元/hm²)
浙江省	普通户	17051	13025	9710	36137	17991	54128	127.2	84718
	规模户	15728	14396	7929	33277	20736	54013	133.2	81611
	T均值检验	0.8	-0.7	1.3	0.9	-2.9^***	-0.3	-1.0	0.6
	全部	16651	13440	9171	35273	18820	54093	130.2	83165
福建省	普通户	12521	10912	15287	30758	26266	57024	187.9	140872
	规模户	11142	15113	22045	37778	30080	67858	180.7	132848
	T均值检验	0.6	-2.1^**	-2.3^**	-2.1^**	-1.6	-3.4^***	0.6	0.7
	全部	12074	12274	17479	33035	27502	60538	184.3	136860
江西省	普通户	13108	9447	16178	29913	24640	54547	128.8	69932
	规模户	10880	6270	15019	26546	22273	48819	129.8	72070
	T均值检验	1.3	2.1^**	0.4	1.1	0.6	1.3	-0.1	-0.3
	全部	12425	8473	15823	28880	23910	52791	129.3	71001
三省	普通户	15668	12090	11682	34238	20424	54661	137.2	91253
	规模户	14122	13166	11566	32938	22617	55555	140.9	88932
	T均值检验	1.2	-0.8	0.1	0.6	-2.8^***	-0.9	-0.7	0.5
	全部	15194	12420	11646	33839	21096	54936	139.05	90092.5

省份	最大地块营林理论最优轮伐期(年)		最大地块营林最优林地期望值(元/hm²)
省份	普通户	规模户	普通户	规模户
浙江	31.0	31.0	115830	118471
福建	31.6	31.6	113819	92621
江西	31.0	31.0	100437	133093
平均	31.1	31.1	112943	116412

变量	指标分类	最大地块营林预期主伐时间(年)		最大地块预期主伐时间与理论最优轮伐期离差(年)
变量	指标分类	规模户	普通户	规模户	普通户
家庭户均非农时间(月)	≤ 1	23.0	24.0	8.0	7.0
	（1-3]	23.5	23.5	7.5	7.5
	（3-6]	23.1	22.5	7.9	8.5
	（6-9]	26.3	21.8	4.7	9.2
	（9-12]	21.5	21.7	9.5	9.4
家庭人均非农收入排名	≤ 25%	25.3	24.2	5.7	6.8
	(25%~50%]	23.2	23.0	7.8	8.0
	(50%~75%]	22.9	21.5	8.1	9.5
	(75%~100%]	22.9	22.1	8.1	8.9

非农就业对南方集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响

Effect of off-farm employment on the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area

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