中国土地市场对城乡融合发展的影响

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20190201

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城乡融合发展是实现乡村振兴与推进新型城镇化建设的关键举措,土地市场则是实现城乡要素流通的重要渠道,也是连接城乡发展的关键纽带。本文阐释了城乡融合发展的科学内涵与本质特征,探究了土地市场对城乡融合发展的作用机理,在此基础上,量化分析了中国273个地级及以上行政单元土地市场与城乡融合发展的演进规律,并运用面板数据模型对土地市场与城乡融合关系进行了实证检验,以期从土地市场视角为城乡融合发展提供一条可实现路径。结论如下：（1）城乡融合发展是城乡价值重塑的过程,旨在消除阻碍城乡发展的因素,推动城乡要素自由流动与平等交换,实现城乡发展要素回报趋同,本质是通过城乡互动互补实现城乡地域功能的整体优化。（2）土地市场对城乡融合的作用是利弊双轨的权衡,作用方向取决于土地市场是否是良性市场。城乡二元分配体制与社会融入受阻背景下,扭曲土地市场掣肘城乡融合发展。（3）2005-2013年中国土地市场稳步发展,城乡融合发展水平略低,土地市场规模、土地市场价格与土地市场化程度分别提升113.66%、274.09%与37.07%,59.34%城市的城乡融合发展水平下滑,二者反差明显,且均具时空分异特征。（4）现阶段,土地市场对城乡融合发展更多体现为滞碍作用,但土地市场对城乡融合存在“低水平陷阱”,突破88.64%的抑制拐点,即可发挥土地市场对城乡融合的促进作用。重塑土地市场发展价值取向,加快推进土地市场化改革,探索人口—土地挂钩机制是后续工作的重要方向。

关键词: 土地市场, 城乡融合发展, 城乡转型发展, 乡村振兴, 双轨机制

Abstract:

The urban-rural integrated development is the key measure to realize rural vitalization and promote new-type urbanization, while the land market is an important channel to realize the flow of urban-rural development elements, also a key link to connect urban-rural development. This paper analyzes the scientific connotation and substantial characteristics of urban-rural integrated development, and then explores the driving mechanism of land market on urban-rural integrated development. Based on these foundation, we quantitatively analyze the evolution law of land market and urban-rural integrated development in 273 cities at prefecture level or above in China. Furthermore, the relationship between land market and urban-rural integrated development was tested based on the panel data model to give a feasible proposal for the integration of urban and rural development from the perspective of land market. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The urban-rural integrated development is a process of the reconstruction of urban-rural values aiming at removing the obstacles hindering urban-rural development. It helps to promote the free flow and equal exchange of urban-rural elements, and achieve the convergence of returns from urban-rural development elements. The essence is to achieve the overall optimization of urban-rural regional functions through urban-rural integrated development and complementarity. (2) The effect of land market on urban-rural integration is a balance of advantages and disadvantages, and the direction depends on whether the land market is benign. Under the urban-rural dual distribution system and the curtain wall of society, the distorted land market impedes the urban-rural integrated development. (3) From 2005 to 2013, the scale of land market, land market price and land marketization degree increased by 113.66%, 274.09% and 37.07%, respectively, while the level of urban-rural integrated development in 59.34% cities have declined. Steadily developing land market and low level of urban-rural integrated development in China presented stark contrast and obvious spatio-temporal differentiation. (4) Currently, land market is more of a hindrance to urban-rural integrated development, but there is a "low level trap" between land market and urban-rural integrated development. Breaking the suppression inflection point of 88.64%, land market can then play a positive role on promoting urban-rural integration. So, reshaping the healthy value orientation of the land market development, accelerating the land marketization reform and exploring the mechanism of population-land linkage are important parts for follow-up work.

Key words: land market, urban-rural integrated development, urban-rural transformation development, rural vitalization, dual-track mechanism

陈坤秋, 龙花楼. 中国土地市场对城乡融合发展的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(2): 221-235.

CHEN Kun-qiu, LONG Hua-lou. Impacts of land market on urban-rural integrated development in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019, 34(2): 221-235.

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年份	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
城乡融合水平	0.060^***	0.075^***	0.1009^***	0.076^***	0.081^***	0.051	0.100^***	0.121^***	0.152^***
土地市场规模	0.150^***	0.141^***	0.1305^***	0.176^***	0.172^***	0.175^***	0.1353^***	0.153^***	0.159^***
土地市场价格	0.085^***	0.062^***	0.0515^***	0.051^***	0.115^***	0.110^***	-0.003	0.066^***	0.067^***
土地市场化程度	0.000	0.079^***	0.0685^***	0.042^***	0.038^***	0.014^**	-0.016	-0.0095	0.025^***

变量名	变量释义	观测量	平均值	标准差
Uri	（农村人均收支差/农村人均收入）/（城市人均收支差/城市人均收入）	2457	0.998	0.613
lnlms	土地出让面积的对数值（hm²）	2457	6.318	1.057
lnlmp	土地出让单价对数值（万元/hm²）	2457	6.075	0.836
Lmd	招拍挂出让收入/土地出让总收入	2457	0.866	2.921
lnpd	人口密度对数值（人/km²）	2457	5.765	0.879
Is	第二产业产值/第三产业产值	2457	1.524	0.746
Cd	年就业增长率/年GDP增长率	2457	1.021	54.775
Gb	地方政府财政支出占GDP比例（%）	2457	0.153	0.098

	模型（1）	模型（2）	模型（3）	模型（4）	模型（5）
lnlms	-0.0449^***		-0.0412^**
lnlms	（-2.75）		（-2.52）
lnlmp		-0.0394^**	-0.0353^**
lnlmp		（-2.47）	（-2.20）
Lmd				-0.0496^***	-0.0039^***
Lmd				（-11.46）	（-4.31）
Lmd²					0.0022^***
Lmd²					（3.56）
lnpd	1.0157^***	1.0112^***	1.1290^***	0.7025^***	0.8403^***
lnpd	（4.55）	（4.51）	（4.94）	（3.32）	（3.92）
Is	0.0716^**	0.0679^**	0.0768^**	0.0479	0.0580^*
Is	（2.23）	（2.12）	（2.38）	（1.54）	（1.86）
Cd	-0.0028^***	-0.0029^***	-0.0028^***	-0.0001	-0.0001
Cd	（-2.92）	（-3.03）	（-2.85）	（-0.58）	（-0.49）
Gb	-0.4157^***	-0.4415^***	-0.3475^**	-2.9989^**	-3.6177^***
Gb	（-2.65）	（-2.84）	（-2.17）	（-3.54）	（-2.97）
时间效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
城市效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	2457	2457	2457	2457	2457
R-squared	0.020	0.019	0.022	0.068	0.074

	模型（6）	模型（7）	模型（8）	模型（9）
	收入差距	消费差距	城乡居民收支差与消费比的比值	时间惯性
lnlms	0.2019^***	0.1549^***	-0.0723^***
lnlms	（27.4）	（14.34）	(-3.03)
lnlmp	0.2419^***	0.2093^***	-0.0968^***
lnlmp	（33.63）	（19.64）	(-4.16)
lnlms_t_-1				-0.0317^**
lnlms_t_-1				(-2.22)
lnlmp_t_-1				-0.357^***
lnlmp_t_-1				(-2.45)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
城市效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	2457	2457	2457	2457
R-squared	0.652	0.388	0.022	0.023