自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 940-953.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20180403

• “粮食安全”专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析

王祥1, 强文丽1, *, 牛叔文1, 2, 刘爱民3, 成升魁3, 李真1   

  1. 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州 730000;
    2. 西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州 730000;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-18 修回日期:2018-05-05 出版日期:2018-06-28 发布日期:2018-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 强文丽(1988- ),女,甘肃白银人,博士,讲师,主要从事自然资源流动与资源环境管理方面的研究。E-mail: qiangwl@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王祥(1994- ),男,甘肃天水人,硕士研究生,主要从事农产品贸易等方面的研究。E-mail: 2392633682@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDBS-SSW-DQC); 兰州大学“一带一路”专项项目(2018ldbryb031); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2015-134)

Analysis on Global Agricultural Trade Network and Its Evolution

WANG Xiang1, QIANG Wen-li1, NIU Shu-wen1, 2, LIU Ai-ming3, CHENG Sheng-kui3, LI Zhen1   

  1. 1. College of Earth Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou university, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Enironmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2018-04-18 Revised:2018-05-05 Online:2018-06-28 Published:2018-06-28
  • Supported by:
    Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. ZDBS-SSW-DQC; Special Project of “The Belt and Road Initiative of China” of Lanzhou University, No. 2018ldbryb031; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No. lzujbky-2015-134. ]

摘要: 论文基于复杂网络视角,选择谷物、油料、纤维、糖料、果蔬、肉类6大类57种农产品,用1986—2013年间的贸易数据,构建全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了这个复杂网络的特征和演化趋势。结果表明:1)1986—2013年,全球农产品贸易总量增加了2.26倍,其中油料作物增加幅度最大,增加了4.97倍。参与到全球农产品贸易网络中的国家(地区)逐年增多。2)拟合节点累积度分布的幂函数曲线,表明全球农产品贸易节点度分布具有不均匀性,节点度小的节点数量多,节点度大的节点数量少,满足幂律分布。“枢纽”节点不断成长。3)全球农产品贸易网络密度上升、平均路径长度下降、多元化趋势加强、网络结构复杂化等特征日益突出。4)我国农产品进口来源国(地区)集中程度较高,农产品进口潜在风险较大。一方面要进一步扩大开放,拓展进口来源国(地区)的数量,更好地利用国际资源;另一方面强化农业基础,提高农业综合生产能力,防范风险,保障粮食安全。

关键词: 复杂网络, 经济全球化, 粮食安全, 幂律分布, 农产品贸易

Abstract: This paper analyzes global agriculture trade and its evolution with complex network methods. Using international trade data during 1986-2013, we selected 57 kinds of agricultural products belonging to six major categories of cereals, oil crops, sugars, fibers, fruits, vegetables and meats, and constructed trade network of international agricultural products at different periods. The evolution trend and current situation of global agriculture trade were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that total trade of international agricultural products increased 2.26 times during 1986-2013. Oil crops had the maximum growth which increased 4.97 times. The number of global agricultural import and export countries involved in agricultural trade network was increasing. By fitting the cumulative distribution function curve of nodes’ degree in the trade network, we can find that the distribution of nodes’ degree satisfies power-law distribution that a majority of nodes have small degree while only a few nodes have large degree. The hub nodes continuously grew up. The density of global agricultural trade network rose while the average path length declined, and the trend of diversification strengthened. The agricultural products import of China depended on a few countries and thus there is potential risk of agricultural products import. On one hand, our country should enlarge opening to extend the source of import and make full use of international resources; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the agricultural foundation and improve the comprehensive production capacity so that we can prevent risks and ensure national food security more efficiently.

Key words: agricultural products trade, complex network, economic globalization, food security, power-law distribution

中图分类号: 

  • F323.7