关键词: 粮食转化系数, 区域产消平衡, 饲料粮消费量, 中国

Abstract: Along with the rapid development of China’s economy and urbanization, people’s living standard improves continuously. More and more people are switching from grains to animal foods, such as meat, poultry, egg, fish and milk products. Now, China is the world’s top consumer of meat and grain. China’s feed grain consumption is large and it increases rapidly, which has become the primary factor of food security. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to accurately determine the characteristics of regional supply and demand balance of feed grain in China, which can help formulate relevant policies of agriculture. Based on the analysis of grain conversion coefficient of livestock products at provincial level, this paper examined the statue and causes of regional supply and demand equilibrium of feed grain. The results showed that: 1) China’s feed grain consumption increased rapidly in recent years, from 21 730×10⁴ t in 2000 to 30 549×10⁴ t in 2015. 2) Pig raising was the main part of feed grain consumption in China which accounted for 44.4% of the total consumption in 2015. It was followed by eggs and poultry consumption whose proportions were 15.8% and 12.7%, respectively. The feed consumption of dairy cows, beef cattle, mutton sheep and aquaculture was low and the proportions were between 5%-9%. 3) The shortage of feed grain in China was 4 276×10⁴ t in 2015. There was a feed grains surplus in the north and a terrible shortage in the south. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia in northeast of China have become China’s most important feed grain supply area. The phenomenon of “sending grains from the north to the south” is rational allocation of grain resources from the perspective of food conversion coefficient and feeding structure. This paper provides three policy recommendations: 1) According to the experience of developed countries, Chinese consumption of beef and dairy products is small. In 2015, per capita milk consumption was only one-third of the national recommended volume. So it is suggested that more beef and milk products should be produced and consumed. 2) The agricultural production in China has been following the policy of “taking grain as the key link” for a long time. China’s agriculture should be switched from grain-oriented planting structure to three-element structure that mainly contains grain crops, commercial crops and forage crops. 3) In the past, China’s food security relied more on domestic grain production and ignored the international market. Our land and water resources were all exploited to meet the growing demands of agricultural products. To ensure the food security and preserve the environment, we should make full use of the international market and develop agricultural trades with more countries.

Key words: China, feed grain consumption, grain conversion coefficient, regional balance of production and consumption