自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 1926-1939.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20171263
李亚男1,2, 秦耀辰1,2,*, 谢志祥1,2, 宁晓菊2, 张丽君1,2
收稿日期:
2017-11-29
出版日期:
2018-11-20
发布日期:
2018-11-20
通讯作者:
秦耀辰(1959- ),男,教授,主要从事区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: qinyc@henu.edu.cn
作者简介:
李亚男(1981- ),女,河南信阳人,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化及农业适应性研究。E-mail: liynlw@126.com
基金资助:
LI Ya-nan1,2, QIN Yao-chen1,2, XIE Zhi-xiang1,2, NING Xiao-ju2, ZHANG Li-jun1,2
Received:
2017-11-29
Online:
2018-11-20
Published:
2018-11-20
Supported by:
摘要: 论文基于中国839个国家气象站点逐日降水观测数据和778个农业气象站点农作物生长发育数据,提取并统计了中国冬麦区265个国家气象站点麦收期连阴雨频率、最长连阴雨日数和最大过程雨量。通过构建“灾害胁迫-暴露-适应”的麦收期连阴雨灾害风险评价体系,采用熵权灰色关联分析法对2014年中国166个地级市冬小麦麦收期连阴雨的灾害风险进行评价。在此基础上,针对不同灾害风险主导因子进行风险防范分区。结果表明:1)空间分布上连阴雨灾害胁迫的带状递减特征明显,秦岭—淮河以南地区的灾害胁迫等级整体高于秦岭—淮河以北地区;灾害暴露和适应等级呈现出高低交错的空间分布特征。其中,华北西部、黄淮西部和西南地区东南部的暴露等级相对较高,适应能力相对较强的地区主要分布在省会城市、直辖市及其周边区域。2)处于麦收期连阴雨灾害中等以上风险的区域占冬小麦播种地市的73%,2 226.23万hm2的冬小麦处于麦收期连阴雨的胁迫中。3)中国冬小麦麦收期连阴雨灾害风险热点区域以灾害胁迫-适应主导和适应能力主导为主,加强灾害监测预警及提升区域适应能力是降低冬小麦麦收期连阴雨风险的有效途径。
中图分类号:
李亚男, 秦耀辰, 谢志祥, 宁晓菊, 张丽君. 中国冬小麦麦收期连阴雨灾害风险评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(11): 1926-1939.
LI Ya-nan, QIN Yao-chen, XIE Zhi-xiang, NING Xiao-ju, ZHANG Li-jun. Disaster Risk Assessment of Continuous Rain during Harvest Period of Winter Wheat in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(11): 1926-1939.
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