自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 1563-1574.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20171084

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于统计-FloodArea模型的平原水网区致灾临界雨量研究

苗茜, 谢志清*, 曾燕, 王珂清, 孙佳丽   

  1. 江苏省气候中心,南京 210009
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-17 修回日期:2018-06-05 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-20
  • 通讯作者: 谢志清(1977- ),男,四川资阳人,高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象防灾减灾研究。E-mail: jsqxj123@126.com

  • 作者简介:苗茜(1983- ),女,江苏徐州人,工程师,主要从事气象灾害风险管理研究。E-mail: miaoqiancao@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CMAGJ2014Z01); 中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160404); 江苏省气象局面上科研项目(KM201705)

Research of Critical Rainfalls in Wet-net Plains Based on Statistical Method and FloodArea

MIAO Qian, XIE Zhi-qing, ZENG Yan, WANG Ke-qing, SUN Jia-li   

  1. Jiangsu Climate Center, Nanjing 210009, China
  • Received:2017-10-17 Revised:2018-06-05 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-20
  • Supported by:
    ; Major Projects for Key Technology Integration and Application of CMA, No. CMAGJ2014Z01; Special Fund for Forecast and Prediction Development of CMA, No. CMAHX20160404; Scientific Research Project of Jiangsu Meteorology Bureau, No. KM201705.

摘要: 论文基于江苏老濉河流域降水、水位和流量观测数据,利用统计-FloodArea模型相结合的方法计算了平原水网区致灾临界雨量。从水位变幅角度构建了流域不同时段累计面雨量-洪水涨幅统计模型,并计算出致灾临界雨量。在修订河道高程的基础上,利用FloodArea模型模拟典型暴雨洪涝事件的动态淹没过程,建立不同时段累计面雨量与模拟水位涨幅之间的幂函数关系,计算出另一组致灾临界雨量。对比发现两组致灾临界雨量基本一致,24 h三个等级致灾临界雨量对应泗洪气象站167 a、17 a和2 a一遇降水量。统计模型能较好地捕捉短时降水与洪水涨幅的关系,FloodArea模型则更好地反映了长历时暴雨洪涝事件的雨洪关系,整合两种方法,可得到更科学的平原水网区暴雨洪涝致灾临界雨量。

关键词: FloodArea, 暴雨洪涝, 风险预警, 临界雨量, 平原水网, 统计分析

Abstract: Accompanying with developing economy, wet-net plains locating at the down basin of large rivers are becoming more vulnerable to rainstorm events than before. Combining DEM, terrain data and meteorology-hydrology characteristics of Jiangsu wet-net plain, we handled the mechanism of rainstorm flood through analyzing the meteorological and hydrological data. The water level of Laosui River changed with the quantity and intensity of the rainfall. Based on the correlation of water level increment and accumulative rainfalls, we modeled the linear relations during 2007-2011 and got a series of critical rainfalls. Then the heavy precipitation event occurred in 2010 was chosen to testify the statistical rainfalls. Inputting the hourly precipitation into FloodArea (FA), the water level dynamics were grasped which correlated with the input precipitation powerfully. Compared with the statistical results, the thresholds calculated by the FA model showed smaller value at higher risk level and greater value at lower risk level, but the variability is almost less than 5%. The recurrence periods of critical rainfalls in 24 h are 167 a, 17 a and 2 a, respectively. With observation data, the relationships of precipitation-water level can be analyzed adequately, especially in short duration, while FA method has advantage in evaluating long duration correlation. The data from statistical method and FA simulation can be integrated and used as indices in flood disaster warning. Selection of proper indice is a key point of risk warning services.

Key words: critical rainfall, FloodArea, rainstorm flood, risk warning, statistical analysis, wet-net plain

中图分类号: 

  • P426.616