关键词: 城市扩张, 工业用地, 驱动力分析, 商住用地, 无序多分类Logistic回归

Abstract: Revealing the distribution pattern of urban expansion and detecting the determinants of urban expansion can help to understand the mechanism of urban development and forecast the urban change, which will be meaningful for decision-making on city management. Many outstanding researches have focused on this topic and made massive contribution to the knowledge system of it. However, a research gap is still left behind for deeper understanding. Most of previous literatures regarded the urban expansion as the sprawl of all construction lands and ignored the diversity of construction lands, such as residential land and industrial land, therefore, the researches exploring the determinants of urban expansion might neglect the fact that different types of construction lands could be driven by different determinants, e.g., commercial lands prefer to locate at the surrounding of CBD while industrial lands are more likely to locate far away from CBD. Hence, to fill in this gap, this paper aims to figure out the different determinants of diversified construction lands under the background of urban expansion. In detail, the multinomial Logistic regression model was applied in Yiwu, a city in Zhejiang Province, to detect the difference between determinants of commercial-residential land and industrial land expansion during 2006-2014. These two types of construction lands accounted for a big proportion of urban expansion during this period in Yiwu. The result illustrated that the urban expansion in Yiwu is the result of interaction of multiple factors, including natural environment, human activities and policies. A significant difference existed between the determinants of commercial-residential lands and industrial land expansion, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: 1) they are driven by different determinants, e.g., land price has positive effect on the expansion of commercial-residential lands while has no significant relationship with industrial land expansion; 2) they are driven by opposite effect of the same determinants, e.g., distance to the CBD and distance to industrial parks both have opposite influences on these two types of land expansion; 3) they are driven by different degree of effect of the same determinants, e.g., the commercial-residential land expansion is more sensitive to the amount of neighboring urban built-up area, while the industrial land expansion is more likely to change with the amount of available neighboring developing area. Furthermore, due to the different determinants, the development of Yiwu city exhibited a characteristic of the separation of production and residence. Given this situation, it's necessary to enhance the road network construction so as to improve the connection between industrial production and residential living in Yiwu. This study revealed the difference between the determinants of commercial-residential land expansion and industrial land expansion under the background of urban sprawl, which give a further understanding of the mechanism of urban expansion and can help to provide scientific basis and direct reference for urban planning and urban management in the future.

Key words: commercial-residential land, determinant, industrial land, multinomial Logistic regression, urban expansion