农地整治对农户生计策略的影响分析——基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20170898

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文先对农户生计策略类型进行细分,利用倾向得分匹配-双重差分方法（Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences,PSM-DID）排除其他混杂因素,探讨农地整治在生计资本差异下对农户生计策略的影响效用,并运用多种匹配方法和反事实检验法对估计结果进行稳健性检验。结果表明：1）农地整治的实施能够显著改变二兼型农户的生计策略,但并不能显著改变专业型或多兼型农户的生计策略;2）农地整治对传统兼业型、现代兼业型、非农兼业型农户生计策略有显著影响,传统兼业型、现代兼业型农户比重显著增加,而非农兼业型农户比重显著减少,说明农户能够通过调整自身生计策略适应农地整治带来的变化,农地整治促进了农户生计多样化;3）通过多种匹配方法及反事实法开展稳健性检验,证实论文主要估计结果是稳健的。建议针对不同类型农户家庭需求制定差别化的鼓励政策;充分利用当地产业特色,依托农地整治与现代农业政策,带动现代兼业型农户发展区域特色农业或休闲农业。

关键词: 反事实检验, 农地整治, 农户, 倾向得分匹配, 生计策略, 双重差分

Abstract: Households are kernel of stakeholders in rural land consolidation. It is exceedingly meaningful to estimate the actual disposition effect of rural land consolidation on households’ livelihood strategies. In this paper, the types of households’ livelihood strategies are classified, and thereafter, on the basis of the livelihood capital measurement, PSM-DID method is employed to exclude other confounding factors and econometrically analyze the influence of rural land consolidation on the livelihood strategy of households. The robustness of the estimation results is tested by various matching methods and counterfactual method. The results show that: 1) Rural land consolidation can indeed significantly change the livelihood strategy of two-type-job households. But it does not significantly change the livelihood strategies of professional agriculture households or multi-type-job households. 2) Rural land consolidation has a significant impact on the livelihood strategies of traditional agriculture-dependent households, modern agriculture-dependent households and non-agriculture households. Both the proportions of traditional agriculture-dependent households and modern agriculture-dependent households have increased significantly, while the proportion of non-agriculture households has significantly reduced, which demonstrates that households can adjust their livelihood strategies to adapt to the changes after rural land consolidation. Or in other words, rural land consolidation promotes the diversification of households’ livelihoods. 3) A variety of matching methods and counterfactual method are adopted to carry out robustness tests which confirm that the main estimation results of this paper are considerably robust. Finally, suggestions are proposed based on this study. Incentive policies for different kinds of households should be developed. Specifically, two-type-job households should be encouraged to develop appropriate scale management of agriculture, and professional agriculture households should be assisted with training on modern agricultural technology or non-agricultural employment skills. Relying on local agricultural industry policies and rural land consolidation, modern agriculture-dependent households could develop regional unique agricultural industry, for example, leisure agriculture. Moreover, traditional agriculture-dependent households and non-agriculture households should be guided to realize the transfer of local surplus rural labor force and the transformation of livelihood to obtain diversified employment channels and income sources of households.

Key words: counterfactual test, DID, livelihood strategy, peasant household, PSM, rural land consolidation

中图分类号:

F301.2

刘晨芳, 赵微. 农地整治对农户生计策略的影响分析——基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9): 1613-1626.

LIU Chen-fang, ZHAO Wei. The Influence of Rural Land Consolidation on Households’ Livelihood Strategies Based on PSM-DID Method[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(9): 1613-1626.

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