基于SWAT模型定量分析自然因素与人为因素对水文系统的影响——以漳卫南运河流域为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20170882

自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 1575-1587.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20170882

基于SWAT模型定量分析自然因素与人为因素对水文系统的影响——以漳卫南运河流域为例

白琪阶¹, 宋志松², 王红瑞^1,*, 邓彩云¹, 赵勇³

1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院-城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京 100875;
2. 中电建水环境治理技术有限公司,深圳 518102;
3. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

收稿日期:2017-08-25 修回日期:2018-01-27 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-20
通讯作者: 王红瑞（1963- ）,男,河南人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水资源系统分析和环境规划与评价方面研究。E-mail: henrywang@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:白琪阶（1993- ）,女,山西人,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源系统分析和非常规水源方面研究。E-mail: baiqijie1993@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51479003,51879010）; 国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0401407）

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Natural Factors and Human Factors on Hydrological System Using the SWAT Model: The Zhangweinan Canal Basin Case

BAI Qi-jie¹, SONG Zhi-song², WANG Hong-rui¹, DENG Cai-yun¹, ZHAO Yong³

1. College of Water Science, Beijing Normal University-Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Power China Water Environment Governance, Shenzhen 518102, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Received:2017-08-25 Revised:2018-01-27 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-20
Supported by:
; National Natural Science Foundation, No. 51479003 and 51879010; National Key R&D Program of China, No.2016YFC0401407.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “干旱”是由大尺度的气候变化所引起的水分亏缺现象,“水资源短缺”则是因人类长期对水资源不可持续利用引起的水资源亏缺现象。前者无法被水资源管理系统规避,后者则受水资源管理方针政策的影响。然而,通常一个地区由干旱与水资源短缺引起的水分亏缺经常同时发生而且难以区分。因此,论文提出了一种可以定量区分自然因素（干旱）和人为因素（水资源短缺）对水文系统影响的框架,并以漳卫南运河流域为研究对象,利用SWAT模型模拟结果（无人为影响情景下）和观测数据（自然因素和人为因素共同作用结果）,对研究区1976—1995年的日径流量序列进行了初步对比和差异性分析。结果表明：1）经率定和验证的SWAT模型能够有效模拟漳卫南运河流域的径流过程;2）无论是丰水年还是枯水年,水资源短缺现象均导致了夏季径流洪峰时期的消失;3）人为因素是引起漳卫南运河流域水文系统发生变化的主要原因,并且人为因素影响造成的径流损失量是自然因素造成径流损失量的4倍。论文提出的框架可以定量化分析自然因素和人为因素对水文系统的相对影响,有助于水资源管理者制定适应干旱与水资源短缺状况的管理政策。

关键词: SWAT模型, 干旱, 人为因素, 水资源短缺, 自然因素

Abstract: Drought is a natural hazard caused by large-scale climatic variability and cannot be prevented by local water management. Water scarcity refers to the water shortage caused by long-term unsustainable use of water resources, which can be influenced by water management policies. Clarifying drought and water scarcity is not trivial, since they often occur simultaneously. In this paper, we propose an observation-modeling framework to separate natural (drought) and human (water scarcity) effects on the hydrological system. Taking the Zhangweinan Canal Basin as study area, we carry out the preliminary comparison and difference analysis on the scenario simulation results of the SWAT model (without human influence) and observed data (with natural factors and human influence) of daily runoff series during 1976-1995. The result shows that: 1) The calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process. 2) Water scarcity resulted in the disappearance of the peak flood period in summer, even in relatively wet years. 3) Human factors are the main reason that caused the loss of runoff in Zhangweinan Canal Basin. The impact of human factors on the hydrological system was, on average, four times as high as the impact of natural factors. The proposed observation-modeling framework helps water managers in water-stressed regions quantify the relative impact of drought and water scarcity and make decisions regarding drought and water scarcity condition.

Key words: drought, human factor, natural factor, SWAT model, water scarcity

中图分类号:

P333.9

白琪阶, 宋志松, 王红瑞, 邓彩云, 赵勇. 基于SWAT模型定量分析自然因素与人为因素对水文系统的影响——以漳卫南运河流域为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9): 1575-1587.

BAI Qi-jie, SONG Zhi-song, WANG Hong-rui, DENG Cai-yun, ZHAO Yong. Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Natural Factors and Human Factors on Hydrological System Using the SWAT Model: The Zhangweinan Canal Basin Case[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(9): 1575-1587.

参考文献

[1] KIRONO D G C, KENT D M, HENNESSY K J, et al. Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: Results from 14 global climate models[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2011, 75(6): 566-575.
[2] 王红瑞, 刘昌明, 毛广全, 等. 水资源短缺对北京农业的不利影响分析与对策[J]. 自然资源学报, 2004, 19(2): 160-169.
[WANG H R, LIU C M, MAO G Q, et al.Negative effects of water scarcity on agriculture in Beijing and countermeasures. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(2): 160-169. ]
[3] 刘昌明, 王红瑞. 浅析水资源与人口、经济和社会环境的关系[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(5): 635-644.
[LIU C M, WANG H R.An analysis of the relationship between water resources and population-economy-society-environment. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(5): 635-644. ]
[4] STAHL K, TALLAKSEN L M, GUDMUNDSSON L, et al.Streamflow data from small basins: A challenging test to high-resolution regional climate modeling[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011, 12(12): 900-912.
[5] STAHL K, TALLAKSEN L M, HANNAFORD J, et al.Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: Estimates from a multi-model ensemble[J]. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 2012, 16(7): 2035-2047.
[6] ROSEGRANT M W, RINGLER C, ZHU T J.Water for agriculture: maintaining food security under growing scarcity[J]. Annual Review of Environment & Resources, 2010, 34: 205-222.
[7] FAN L L, WANG H R, WANG C, et al.Exploration of use of Copulas in analyzing the relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China[J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, 43: 1-11.
[8] WATTS G, CHRISTIERSON B V, HANNAFORD J, et al. Testing the resilience of water supply systems to long droughts [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 414/415: 255-267.
[9] LOON A F, LANEN H A J. Making the distinction between water scarcity and drought using an observation-modeling framework[J]. Water Resources Research, 2013, 49(3): 1-20.
[10] WILHITE D A.Combating drought through preparedness[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 2002, 26(4): 275-285.
[11] ESTRELA T, VARGAS E.Drought management plans in the European Union: The case of Spain[J]. Water Resources Management, 2012, 26(6): 1537-1553.
[12] MORTAZAVI M, KUCZERA G, CUI L.Multiobjective optimization of urban water resources: Moving toward more practical solutions[J]. Water Resource Research, 2012, 48(3): 3514.
[13] FLUG M, CAMPBELL S G.Drought allocations using the systems impact assessment model: Klamath River[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, 2005, 131(2): 110-115.
[14] MYSIAK J, GIUPPONI C, ROSATO P.Towards the development of a decision support system for water resource management[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2005, 20(2): 203-214.
[15] 王红瑞, 高媛媛, 董艳艳, 等. WRAP水权分析模型及其应用[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2010, 42(2): 1-8.
[WANG H R, GAO Y Y, DONG Y Y, et al.Water rights analysis package (WRAP) and its application. Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition), 2010, 42(2): 1-8. ]
[16] KUNDZEWICZ Z W, BUDHAKOONCHAROEN S, BRONSTERt A, et al.Coping with variability and change: Floods and droughts[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 2010, 26(4): 263-274.
[17] 宋进喜, 宋令勇, 何艳芬, 等. 基于GIS的西安市雨水收集潜力估算[J]. 干旱区地理, 2009, 32(6): 874-879.
[SONG J X, SONG L Y, HE Y F, et al.GIS-based estimation of potential amount of rainwater for utilization in Xi’an City. Arid Land Geography, 2009, 32(6): 874-879. ]
[18] 赵安周, 刘宪锋, 朱秀芳, 等. 基于SWAT模型的渭河流域干旱时空分布[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(9): 1156-1166.
[ZHAO A Z, LIU X F, ZHU X F, et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of droughts based on SWAT model for the Weihe River Basin. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(9): 1156-1166. ]
[19] 袁宇志, 张正栋, 蒙金华. 基于SWAT模型的流溪河流域土地利用与气候变化对径流的影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2015, 26(4): 989-998.
[YUAN Y Z, ZHANG Z D, MENG J H.Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2015, 26(4): 989-998. ]
[20] 白淑英, 王莉, 史建桥, 等. 基于SWAT模型的开都河流域径流模拟[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(9): 79-84.
[BAI S Y, WANG L, SHI J Q, et al.Runoff simulation for Kaidu River Basin based on SWAT model. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2013, 27(9): 79-84. ]
[21] 姚苏红, 朱仲元, 张圣微, 等. 基于SWAT模型的内蒙古闪电河流域径流模拟研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(1): 175-180.
[YAO S H, ZHU Z Y, ZHANG S W, et al.Using SWAT model to simulate the discharge of the river Shandianhe in Inner Mongolia. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2013, 27(1): 175-180. ]
[22] 谢淼, 李鸿雁, 刘铁娟, 等. 基于SWAT模型的石头口门水库流域径流模拟[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(30): 14892-14894, 14921.
[XIU M, LI H Y, LIU T J, et al.Runoff simulation of Shitoukoumen Reservoir Basin based on SWAT model. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 40(30): 14892-14894, 14921. ]
[23] 丁晋利, 郑粉莉. SWAT 模型及其应用[J] . 水土保持研究, 2004, 11(4): 128-130.
[DING J L, ZHENG F L.SWAT model and its application. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2004, 11(4): 128-130. ]
[24] 杨桂莲, 郝芳华, 刘昌明, 等. 基于SWAT模型的基流估算及其评价——洛河流域为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(5): 463-471.
[YANG G L, HAO F H, LIU C M, et al.The study on baseflow estimation and assessment in SWAT: Luohe Basin as an example. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(5): 463-471. ]
[25] 陈军锋, 陈秀万. SWAT模型的水量平衡及其在梭磨河流域的应用[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 40(2): 265-270.
[CHEN J F, CHEN X W.Water balance of the SWAT model and its application in the Suomo Basin. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2004, 40(2): 265-270. ]
[26] 郝芳华, 陈利群, 刘昌明, 等. 土地利用变化对产流和产沙的影响分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2004, 18(3): 5-8.
[HAO F H, CHEN L Q, LIU C M, et al.Impact of land use change on runoff and sediment yield. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2004, 18(3): 5-8. ]
[27] 王刚, 严登华, 杜秀敏, 等. 基于水资源系统的流域干旱风险评价——以漳卫河流域为例[J]. 灾害学, 2014(4): 98-104.
[WANG G, YAN D H, DU X M, et al.Drought risk assessment based on water resources system: A case study in Zhangwei River Basin. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014(4): 98-104. ]
[28] 翟学军. 漳卫南运河50年开发治理成就和前景展望[J]. 海河水利, 2008(2): 3-5.
[ZHAI X J.The development achievements and prospects of Zhangweinan Canal during 50 years. Haihe Water Resources, 2008(2): 3-5. ]
[29] 曹祎, 朱晓春. 漳卫南运河水资源现状及其可持续利用对策[J]. 海河水利, 2003(4): 19-20, 25.
[CAO W, ZHU X C.The present situation and countermeasures of sustainable utilization of water resources in Zhangweinan Canal. Haihe Water Resources, 2003(4): 19-20, 25. ]
[30] ROVERT M H, JAMES R S.A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence[J]. Water Resources Research, 1984, 20(6): 727-732.
[31] 孙才志, 王雪妮. 基于WPI-ESDA模型的中国水贫困评价及空间关联格局分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(6): 1072-1082.
[SUN C Z, WANG X N.Research on the assessment and spatial correlation pattern of water poverty in China based on WPI-ESDA model. Resources Science, 2011, 33(6): 1072-1082. ]

基于SWAT模型定量分析自然因素与人为因素对水文系统的影响——以漳卫南运河流域为例

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Natural Factors and Human Factors on Hydrological System Using the SWAT Model: The Zhangweinan Canal Basin Case

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	覃艺, 张廷斌, 易桂花, 魏澎涛, 杨达. 2000年以来内蒙古生长季旱情变化遥感监测及其影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(2): 459-475.
[2]	陈征, 王文杰, 蒋卫国, 贾凯, 陈坤. 黄淮海平原灌溉水量变化特征及其与气象干旱的关系[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(5): 1228-1237.
[3]	罗纲, 阮甜, 陈财, 高超, 李鹏, 马松根, 李贺丽, 王欢. 农业干旱与气象干旱关联性——以淮河蚌埠闸以上地区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(4): 977-991.
[4]	余灏哲, 李丽娟, 李九一. 基于TRMM降尺度和MODIS数据的综合干旱监测模型构建[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(10): 2553-2568.
[5]	石育中, 杨新军, 赵雪雁. 气象干旱对甘肃省榆中县乡村社会—生态系统的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(9): 1987-2000.
[6]	李明, 王贵文, 柴旭荣, 胡炜霞, 张莲芝. 基于空间聚类的中国东北气候分区及其气象干旱时间变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(8): 1682-1693.
[7]	李明, 柴旭荣, 王贵文, 胡炜霞, 张莲芝. 长江中下游地区气象干旱特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(2): 374-384.
[8]	张学渊, 魏伟, 颉斌斌, 郭泽呈, 周俊菊. 西北干旱区生态承载力监测及安全格局构建[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(11): 2389-2402.
[9]	齐述华, 张秀秀, 江丰, 王鹏. 鄱阳湖水文干旱化发生的机制研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(1): 168-178.
[10]	李文龙, 石育中, 鲁大铭, 刘倩, 乌铁红. 北方农牧交错带干旱脆弱性时空格局演变[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9): 1599-1612.
[11]	莫兴国, 胡实, 卢洪健, 林忠辉, 刘苏峡. GCM预测情景下中国21世纪干旱演变趋势分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(7): 1244-1256.
[12]	贺敏, 宋立生, 王展鹏, 辜清, 王大菊, 郭博. 基于多源数据的干旱监测指数对比研究——以西南地区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(7): 1257-1269.
[13]	张扬, 李宝富, 陈亚宁. 1970—2013年西北干旱区空中水汽含量时空变化与降水量的关系[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(6): 1043-1055.
[14]	孙特生, 胡晓慧. 基于农牧民生计资本的干旱区草地适应性管理——以准噶尔北部的富蕴县为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(5): 761-774.
[15]	汪左, 王芳, 张运. 基于CWSI的安徽省干旱时空特征及影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(5): 853-866.