基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20170468

自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 801-812.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170468

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

钟珊^a, 赵小敏^a,*, 郭熙^a, 叶英聪^a,b, 李伟峰^a

江西农业大学 a. 江西省鄱阳湖流域农业资源与生态重点实验室, b. 林学院,南昌 330045

收稿日期:2017-05-16 修回日期:2017-07-15 出版日期:2018-05-20 发布日期:2018-05-20
通讯作者: *赵小敏（1962- ）,男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事土地利用与规划、资源环境、遥感与地理信息统等研究。E-mail: zhaoxm889@126.com
作者简介:钟珊（1992- ）,女,江西赣州人,硕士研究生,主要从事土地资源管理研究。E-mail: 510695029@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41361049）; 江西省自然科学基金项目（20122BAB204012）

Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Spatial Suitability Evaluation and Population Carrying Capacity in Guixi County

ZHONG Shan^a, ZHAO Xiao-min^a, GUO Xi^a, YE Ying-cong^a,b, LI Wei-feng^a

a. Key laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province, b. College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China

Received:2017-05-16 Revised:2017-07-15 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41361049; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province, No. 20122BAB204012.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。

关键词: 城市开发边界, 灰色预测模型, 空间适宜性评价, 两规衔接, 人口承载力

Abstract: Delimitation of urban growth boundary can guide the orderly development of urban space and effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Taking the typical resource city Guixi as the research object, this paper explores effective urban growth boundary delimitation methods from the aspects of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale and two-plan (urban master planning and land-use planning) integration connection. The spatial suitability evaluation takes the natural, spatial accessibility and ecological conditions into consideration and determines the ecological baseline for area not suitable for development and suitability levels for area suitable for development area through the cluster analysis. The baseline and the suitability levels are used to determine the development direction of urban growth boundary. The population of 2020 is forecasted through model of GM(1,1), and the maximum local population is verified based on land resources and water resources. Meanwhile, the urban size is predicated and the sphere of urban growth boundary is delimited. The construction land is reduced by means of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale prediction and two-plan integration connection, and thus, the rigid boundary and elastic boundary can be delimited.

Key words: model of GM(1,1), population carrying capacity, spatial suitability evaluation, two-plan integration connection, urban growth boundary

中图分类号:

TU984.11⁺3

钟珊, 赵小敏, 郭熙, 叶英聪, 李伟峰. 基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(5): 801-812.

ZHONG Shan, ZHAO Xiao-min, GUO Xi, YE Ying-cong, LI Wei-feng. Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Spatial Suitability Evaluation and Population Carrying Capacity in Guixi County[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(5): 801-812.

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基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Spatial Suitability Evaluation and Population Carrying Capacity in Guixi County

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