[1] 金菊良, 宋占智, 崔毅, 等. 旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J]. 水利学报, 2016, 47(3): 398-412. [JIN J L, SONG Z Z, CUI Y, et al.Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2016, 47(3): 398-412. ] [2] WANDERS N, WADA Y.Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 526: 208-220. [3] HAO Z C, HONG Y, XIA Y L, et al.Probabilistic drought characterization in the categorical form using ordinal regression[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 535: 331-339. [4] 屈艳萍, 郦建强, 吕娟, 等. 旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 25(2): 297-304. [QU Y P, LI J Q, LÜ J, et al.A quantitative framework for assessing drought risk and key technique. Advance in Water Science, 2014, 25(2): 297-304. ] [5] 金菊良, 郦建强, 周玉良, 等. 旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架[J]. 灾害学, 2014, 29(3): 1-10. [JIN J L, LI J Q, ZHOU Y L, et al.Research on the theoretical framework of drought risk assessment. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014, 29(3): 1-10. ] [6] 程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 等. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(3): 296-302. [CHENG L, JIN J L, LI J Q, et al.Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis. Advance in Water Science, 2013, 24(3): 296-302. ] [7] 顾颖. 风险管理是干旱管理的发展趋势[J]. 水科学进展, 2006, 17(2): 295-298. [GU Y.Risk management: The trend of the drought management. Advance in Water Science, 2006, 17(2): 295-298. ] [8] 屈艳萍, 高辉, 吕娟, 等. 基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J]. 水利学报, 2015, 46(8): 908-917. [QU Y P, GAO H, LÜ J, et al.Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment in China based on the regional disaster system theory. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2015, 46(8): 908-917. ] [9] HUANG S Z, CHANG J X, LENG G Y, et al.Integrated index for drought assessment based on variable fuzzy set theory: A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 527: 608-618. [10] TOUM D, ASHFAQ M, NAYAK M A, et al.A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 526: 196-207. [11] 赵天保, 陈亮, 马柱国. CMIP5多模式对全球典型干旱半干旱区气候变化的模拟与预估[J]. 科学通报, 2014, 59(12): 1148-1163. [ZHAO T B, CHEN L, MA Z G.Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 Models. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2014, 59(12): 1148-1163. ] [12] 孙才志, 张翔. 基于信息扩散技术的辽宁省农业旱灾风险评价[J]. 农业系统科学与综合研究, 2008, 24(4): 507-510. [SUN C Z, ZHANG X.Risk Assessment of agriculture drought in Liaoning Province based on information diffusion technique. System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture, 2008, 24(4): 507-510. ] [13] 许凯, 徐翔宇, 李爱花, 等. 基于概率统计方法的承德市农业旱灾风险评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(14): 139-146. [XU K, XU X Y, LI A H, et al.Assessing agricultural drought disaster risk in Chengde City using stochastic method. Transactions of the CSAE, 2013, 29(14): 139-146. ] [14] 欧阳蔚, 于艳青, 金菊良, 等. 基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型——以安徽为例[J]. 灾害学, 2015, 30(1): 228-234. [OUYANG W, YU Y Q, JIN J L, et a1. Risk assessment model of drought disaster based on information diffusion and bootstrap: A case study in Anhui. Journal of Catastrophology, 2015, 30(1): 228-234. ] [15] 闫超君, 欧阳蔚, 金菊良, 等. 基于信息扩散和频率曲线适线的农业旱灾风险评估方法[J]. 水利水电技术, 2014, 45(7): 107-111, 116. [YAN C J, OUYANG W, JIN J L, et al.Risk Assessment method of agricultural drought disaster based on information diffusion and frequency curve fitting. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2014, 45(7): 107-111, 116. ] [16] 孙可可, 陈进, 许继军, 等. 基于EPIC模型的云南元谋水稻春季旱灾风险评估方法[J]. 水利学报, 2013, 44(11): 1326-1332, 1325. [SUN K K, CHEN J, XU J J, et al.Study on the assessment method of spring drought risk for rice in Yuanmou County, Yunnan Province based on the EPIC Model. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2013, 44(11): 1326-1332, 1325. ] [17] 贾慧聪, 王静爱, 潘东华, 等. 基于EPIC模型的黄淮海夏玉米旱灾风险评价[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(5): 643-652. [JIA H C, WANG J A, PAN D H, et al.Maize drought disaster risk assessment based on EPIC Model: A case study of maize region in northern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(5): 643-652. ] [18] 李德毅, 杜鹢. 不确定性人工智能 [M]. 第二版. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2014. [LI D Y, DU Y.Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty. The Second Edition. Beijing: National Defend Industry Press, 2014. ] [19] 付斌, 李道国, 王慕快. 云模型研究的回顾与展望[J]. 计算机应用研究, 2011, 28(2): 420-426. [FU B, LI D G, WANG M K.Review and prospect on research of Cloud Model. Application Research of Computers, 2011, 28(2): 420-426. ] [20] 王贺, 刘高峰, 王慧敏. 基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害风险评价[J]. 水利经济, 2014, 32(2): 15-19, 56. [WANG H, LIU G F, WANG H M.Urban extreme rainstorm flood loss based on Cloud Model. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2014, 32(2): 15-19, 56. ] [21] 谢益辉, 朱钰. Bootstrap方法的历史发展与前沿研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2008, 23(2): 90-96. [XIE Y H, ZHU Y.Bootstrap methods: Developments and frontiers. Statistics and Information Forum, 2008, 23(2): 90-96. ] [22] 程亮. 计算统计学方法在洪水资源利用的风险管理中的应用研究 [D]. 合肥: 合肥工业大学, 2010. [CHENG L.Computational Statistics Methods and Their Application to Risk Management in Reservoir Flood Utilization. Hefei: Hefei University of Technology, 2010. ] [23] 安徽省水利厅. 安徽水旱灾害 [M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 1998. [Water Resources Department of Anhui Province. Flood and Drought Disaster in Anhui Province. Beijing: China Water and Power Press, 1998. ] [24] 中华人民共和国国家标准. 干旱灾害等级标准 [S]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2014. [Standard of the People’s Republic of China. Standard of Classification for Drought Disaster. Beijing: China Water and Power Press, 2014. ] [25] 张秋文, 章永志, 钟鸣. 基于云模型的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(1): 87-95. [ZHANG Q W, ZHANG Y Z, ZHONG M.A Cloud Model based approach for multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of reservoir-induced seismic risk. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(1): 87-95. ] [ZHANG Q W, ZHANG Y Z, ZHONG M.A Cloud Model based approach for multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of reservoir-induced seismic risk. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(1): 87-95. ] |