自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 899-910.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170261

所属专题: 气候变化与地表过程

• 综述 • 上一篇    

气候变化及人类活动对地表径流改变的贡献率及其量化方法研究进展

黄斌斌1, 郝成元1,*, 李若男2, 郑华2,3   

  1. 1. 河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院,河南 焦作 454000;
    2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京 100085;
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-31 修回日期:2017-09-26 出版日期:2018-05-20 发布日期:2018-05-20
  • 通讯作者: *郝成元(1969- ),男,山东曹县人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为自然地理综合研究、土地利用/土地覆被变化。E-mail: haocy@hpu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:黄斌斌(1993- ),男,安徽合肥人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为3S理论技术与应用。Email: 1020372231@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院科技服务网络计划项目(KFJ-STS-ZDTP-03); 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503401)

Research Progress on the Quantitative Methods of Calculating Contribution Rates of Climate Change and Human Activities to Surface Runoff Changes

HUANG Bin-bin1, HAO Cheng-yuan1, LI Ruo-nan2, ZHENG Hua2,3   

  1. 1. College of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, CAS, Beijing 100085, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2017-03-31 Revised:2017-09-26 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-20
  • Supported by:

    Science and Technology Service Network Initiative, No. KFJ-STS-ZDTP-03; National Key Research and Development Programs, No. 2016YFC0503401.

摘要:

地表径流的变化受气候变化和人类活动的双重驱动力作用,定量评估气候变化及人类活动对地表径流变化的影响对水资源管理具有重大意义。论文以水文循环过程为主线,分过程阐述气候变化及人类活动影响地表径流发生变化的机制机理,对各种量化二者对地表径流变化贡献率的方法进行比较,然后分析全球部分流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化影响的差异。研究结果表明:1)气候变化和人类活动参与水文循环的各个过程之中,不同水文过程中气候变化和人类活动影响地表径流变化的途径不同;2)不同量化方法的适用范围和条件不同,不同方法对同一流域的研究结果可能不一致;3)全球不同流域间气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化贡献率存在明显区域差异。现阶段,综合多种突变检验方法有利于提高识别地表径流突变点的准确率;消除干扰因素(如气象水文等数据选取、模型方法参数设置和方法本身不确定性)有利于提高同一流域不同量化方法评估结果的一致性;如何更好地耦合基于物理的水文模型方法和基于数学的经验统计方法来量化二者对地表径流变化的贡献率是未来研究的重点。

关键词: 地表径流变化, 量化方法, 气候变化, 区域分异, 人类活动

Abstract:

Surface runoff change is affected by climate change and human activities. Quantitative assessment the impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff changes is significant for water resources management. This paper analyzes the mechanism that climate change and human activities affect the change of surface runoff based on the process of hydrological cycle and compares the methods that separate the impacts of climate change and human activities. Then, the paper analyzes the differences of the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on surface runoff of some watersheds on globe. At present, integrating multiple mutation test methods is beneficial for improving the accuracy in identifying the abrupt change point of surface runoff. Eliminating the interference factors (such as the selection of meteorological and hydrological data, the parameter setting of model method and inherent uncertainty of methods) is of great significance to improve the consistency of the results of different quantitative methods. The key of future research is to find ways that could better couple the physical hydrological model methods and mathematical empirical methods to separate the impact of climate change and human activities on the change of surface runoff.

Key words: climate change, human activity, quantitative methods, regional difference, surface runoff change

中图分类号: 

  • P333