自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 669-683.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20161178
刘婷1, 邵景安1,2,*
收稿日期:
2016-10-31
修回日期:
2017-07-15
出版日期:
2018-04-10
发布日期:
2018-04-10
通讯作者:
邵景安(1976- ),男,安徽亳州人,博士,研究员,主要从事土地利用与生态过程研究。E-mail: 作者简介:
刘婷(1989- ),女,重庆长寿人,主要从事水土保持研究。E-mail: liu_tt@sohu.com
基金资助:
LIU Ting1, SHAO Jing-an1,2
Received:
2016-10-31
Revised:
2017-07-15
Online:
2018-04-10
Published:
2018-04-10
Supported by:
摘要: 降雨侵蚀力变化是一复杂过程,其变化存在一定的随机波动性,土壤侵蚀是三峡库区生态环境脆弱最主要的影响因素之一,查明库区土壤侵蚀强度的演化过程及未来趋势是库区生态文明建设过程中急需解决的关键科学问题。论文基于三峡库区1990年侵蚀降雨特征,利用BP神经网络对2010年75个站点降雨侵蚀力进行模拟、验证,预测2030年75个站点降雨侵蚀力。选取2030年预测结果中位于库区周围的27个站点,结合2030年库区自然增长、生态保护情景下土地利用模拟数据,使用RUSLE计算2030年土壤侵蚀强度。结果表明:1)2010年库区降雨侵蚀力模拟相对误差为15%,测试样本数据相对误差为14.67%,预测相对误差为19.65%,NE系数为0.85,说明BP神经网络对库区降雨侵蚀力具有良好模拟效果;2)2010年库区土壤侵蚀强度的Kappa指数为0.75,计算结果能满足模拟与预测需求;3)在土地利用不变情况下,2030年库区轻度、中度侵蚀面积均有所增加,微度及强烈以上侵蚀面积均呈减少趋势,且侵蚀强度转变中的58%来源于相邻侵蚀强度,跨侵蚀等级区的较少;4)在降雨侵蚀力不变情况下,自然增长、生态保护情景下未来土地利用变化所导致的土壤侵蚀均呈下降趋势,后者下降的趋势更为明显;5)在降雨侵蚀力及土地利用均变化的情况下,自然增长、生态保护情景下土壤侵蚀均呈下降趋势。
中图分类号:
刘婷, 邵景安. 基于BP神经网络的三峡库区土壤侵蚀强度模拟[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(4): 669-683.
LIU Ting, SHAO Jing-an. Simulation of Soil Erosion Intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Using BP Neural Network[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(4): 669-683.
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