自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1495-1504.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160857

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于概率模型的农地转用外部性测算——以天津市静海区为例

陈竹1, 胡伟2, 黄凌翔1   

  1. 1. 天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津 300384;
    2. 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京 100836
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-08 修回日期:2016-12-26 出版日期:2017-09-20 发布日期:2017-09-20
  • 作者简介:陈竹(1985- ),男,湖北宜昌人,讲师,博士,研究方向为土地资源经济。E-mail:chenz3447@aliyun.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71573101, 71373095); 教育部项目(14JZD009,13YJC630016); 国土资源部公益性行业科研项目(201511004-6); 天津教委项目(2014ZD32)

Externality Measurement of Rural-urban Land Conversion Based on Probability Model: An Empirical Study on Jinghai District, Tianjin City

CHEN Zhu1, HU Wei2, HUANG Lin-xiang1   

  1. 1. College of Economic and Management, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China;
    2. Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100836, China
  • Received:2016-08-08 Revised:2016-12-26 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71573101 and 71373095; Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education, No.14JZD009 and 13YJC630016; Public Welfare Industry Foundation of Land Resources Ministry, No.201511004-6; Education Ministry Foundation of Tianjin, No.2014ZD32

摘要: 准确地量化农地转用外部性能够为促进外部性内化、建设用地聚集的政策提供参考。论文对农地转用外部性界定和识别进行了理论分析,利用农地转用概率模型估算天津市静海区2006—2014年农地转用的外部性,分析地块特征对农地转用概率的影响,讨论了外部性与建设用地聚集的关系。针对静海区2006—2014年数据的分析结果表明,每有1 hm2农地转用为商住用地,周边0~200、200~400、800~1 600 m范围农地受外部性影响分别为0.91×104、0.91×104、0.33×104 元/hm2,每有1 hm2农地转用为住宅用地,周边800~1 600 m范围内农地受外部性影响为0.18×104 元/hm2。农地转用正外部性偏小,聚集效应不足,可能是建设用地分散的重要原因,论文还对外部性测算方法以及地块特征的农地转用影响进行了讨论。

关键词: Probit模型, 地块尺度, 农地转用, 外部性

Abstract: Externalities are important elements in the process of rural-urban land conversion. The study analyses the effects of externalities, including various positive and negative effects such as cluster effect, land fragmentation, and pollution to agricultural land, et al. We propose a method by using land conversion probability instead of land price to identify externalities of rural-urban land conversion and present the measurements of externalities. In the empirical study, Probit model is used to estimate the externalities of rural-urban land conversion at the plot scale. Plot characteristics are considered in the model as control variables. Plot characteristic variables include distance from agricultural land to features, land price, land quality and prime farmland control, and externality variables contain externalities from commercial, residential and industrial land in different distances. Results show that: firstly, the distances from parcels to city, to town, to county, to highway entrance and to high level road could elevate the probability of land conversion, but the distances from parcels to county, to low level road and to runoff could decrease the probability. In addition, prime farmlands have lower probability of land conversion than lands in developable area, but land price and soil quality have no significant influence on the probability. Secondly, 1 hm2 agricultural land’s converting to industrial land raises the probability of agricultural land by 0.39%, 0.39% and 0.14% in the buffer area of 0-200, 200-400 and 800-1 600 m, respectively; 1 hm2 agricultural land’s converting to commercial and residential land increases the probability of land conversion by 0.08% in the 800-1 600 m extent. Therefore, the externalities of agricultural land conversion to industrial land are respectively 0.91×104, 0.91×104, 0.33×104 yuan/hm2 in 0-200, 200-400 and 800-1 600 m extend, externalities of agricultural land conversion to commercial and residential land is 0.18×104 yuan/hm2 in 800-1 600 m extent. Since the externality amount is relatively small, incentive of cluster effect is not enough in Jinghai District of Tianjin.

Key words: externalities, plot scale, Probit model, rural-urban land conversion

中图分类号: 

  • F301.2