自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 1385-1397.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160707

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

地理探测器方法下北京市人口空间格局变化与自然因素的关系研究

吕晨1, 蓝修婷1, 孙威2, 3, *   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-04 修回日期:2016-10-27 出版日期:2017-08-20 发布日期:2017-08-20
  • 作者简介:吕晨(1982- ),女,黑龙江勃利人,博士,副教授,研究方向为区域发展与区域规划、战略环境影响评价研究。E-mail: lvchen@ucas.ac.cn *通信作者简介:孙威(1975- ),男,河南开封人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为区域发展和空间规划研究。E-mail: sunw@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41671124,41371536); 北京市社会科学基金项目(14CSB010)

A Study on the Relationship between Natural Factors and Population Distribution in Beijing Using Geographical Detector

Lü Chen1, LAN Xiu-ting1, SUN Wei2, 3   

  1. 1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2016-07-04 Revised:2016-10-27 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41671124 and 41371536Social Science Foundation of Beijing, No. 14CSB010.

摘要: 人口空间分布具有尺度特征,从乡镇街道尺度研究自然因素对城市人口空间格局的影响有利于得出更精细的结果,并为城市人口合理布局和规划提供科学依据。论文利用第五、六次人口普查乡镇街道数据,分析北京市人口空间格局特征,利用地理探测器研究自然因素对人口分布的影响。研究表明:1)自然因素对不同类型人口空间格局影响具有差异性。对常住人口作用强度由大到小的自然因素分别是适宜建设用地面积、地形起伏度、坡度、海拔高程和河网密度,对外来人口作用力由大到小的自然因素分别是地形起伏度、适宜建设用地面积、坡度、海拔高程和河网密度;2)自然因素对不同地区人口空间格局影响具有差异性。除适宜建设用地面积外,坡度和河网密度分别对六环内、外区域人口密度影响较大。高程和地形起伏度对六环外人口格局作用力高于六环内地区;3)两类自然因素叠加对人口密度作用的强化方式体现为因素相互协同或因素作用力非线性增加。5类自然因素对人口密度的影响力交互作用探测值为1,各类自然因素对城市人口空间格局的影响力协同增强。

关键词: 北京市, 地理探测器, 人口空间格局

Abstract: The spatial distribution of population presents different features as the scale varies. Studies on the effect of natural resources on urban population distribution on the scale of street and township could provide more precise results. This research aims to provide a scientific foundation for reasonable population distribution arrangement and urban planning. Based on the data of the fifth population census and the sixth population census in Beijing on the scale of street and township, this paper analyzed the features of both the permanent residents distribution and the floating population distribution in Beijing by exploration of spatial data analysis with ArcGIS. The geographical detector was used to explore the effect of various zonal natural factors on the population distribution. The natural factors in our analysis which have been proved to influence the population distribution include the altitude, slope, relief degree of land surface, water system density, and suitable construction land. The results showed that: 1) The natural factors have different impacts on permanent residents and floating population distribution. The natural resources having effects on the permanent residents density were the suitable construction land (0.336), the relief degree of land surface (0.236), the slope (0.230), the altitude (0.182), and water system density (0.145) in descending order according to factor dictator of geographical detector. And the natural factors having impacts on the floating population density were the relief degree of land surface (0.260), the suitable construction land (0.246), the slope (0.227), altitude (0.197), and water system density (0.111) in descending order. 2) The natural factors had different impacts on the spatial pattern of population in different regions. For the regions both inside and outside the sixth express way loop, the suitable construction land was the most decisive natural influential factor. Besides the suitable construction land, the slope (0.191) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions inside the sixth express way loop, and the water system density (0.148) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions outside the sixth express way loop. These two natural factors had greater impact on the population density than other natural influential factors. The altitude had more profound impact on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop (0.093) than they did to the regions inside the sixth express way loop (0.051). The PDU value of relief degree of land surface on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop was 0.125, larger than that of the regions inside the sixth express way loop which valued 0.009. 3) The result of interaction detector from the geographical detector showed that the overlay impact of two natural factors on population density got intensified, and the intensified effect was often presented as the synergy of two factors or the non-linear increase of two factors. The comprehensive impact of five natural factors on population density valued 1, which disclosed that the natural factors enhanced each other when they influenced the population distribution.

Key words: Beijing, geographical detector, population distribution

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