自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 606-619.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160432

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及增长动因分解

李兰兰, 徐婷婷, 李方一*, 焦建玲   

  1. 合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥 230009
  • 收稿日期:2016-04-26 修回日期:2016-08-16 出版日期:2017-04-20 发布日期:2017-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 李方一(1985- ),男,湖南常德人,博士,副教授,研究方向为可持续发展战略与管理。E-mail:fyli@hfut.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李兰兰(1986- ),女,湖北荆门人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为资源经济、能源系统建模。E-mail:kxt428@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271074); 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71503065); 教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(14YJC630061); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(JZ2014HGBZ0027)

Gravity Center Evolution Paths and Growth Factor Decomposition of Residential Natural Gas Consumption in China

LI Lan-lan, XU Ting-ting, LI Fang-yi, JIAO Jian-ling   

  1. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230029, China
  • Received:2016-04-26 Revised:2016-08-16 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71271074 and 71503065; Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education, No.14YJC630061; the Central University Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses Special Fund of China, No.JZ2014HGBZ0027

摘要:

在研究2000—2014年中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及其变化特征的基础上,首先运用夏普利值分解八大经济区域对重心迁移的贡献率,然后采用LMDI分解方法,将天然气消费增量分解为基础设施效应、服务效率效应、需求效应,探讨各区域对重心迁移贡献大小的原因与规律。结果显示:2000—2014年居民天然气消费重心经历了向西北、东南、东北方向迁移的三个阶段;2000—2003年西北、西南和东北地区,2003—2008年东部沿海、南部沿海地区,2008—2014年北部沿海、东部沿海和长江中游地区是居民消费重心迁移的主要推力;2000—2014年,基础设施效应一直是促进中国及各区域居民天然气增长的主要动因,而未来效率效应和需求效应将会逐步成为大部分区域的主要驱动因素。

关键词: LMDI指数分解法, 居民, 天然气消费重心, 夏普利值

Abstract:

Based on the research and analysis about the characteristics of the evolution path of China’s residential natural gas consumption during 2000-2014, we calculated the contribution rate of China’s eight regions to the evolution of the gravity center with Shapley value. Then, using the method of LMDI decomposition, the growth of China’s residential natural gas consumption was decomposed into three influencing factors, which were infrastructure, service efficiency and demand, and the reasons and rules of regional contribution to the gravity center evolution were discussed. The results show that: the migration of the gravity center has undergone three stages: to northwest, to southeast and to northeast during 2000-2014. The main forces of gravity center migration of residential natural gas consumption were the northwest, the southwest and the northeast during 2000-2003, the east coast and the southern coast during 2003-2008, the east coast, the northern coast and the middle reach of Yangtze River during 2008-2014. During 2000-2014, infrastructure factor was always the main driving force of the growth of residential natural gas consumption in China and in each region, while service efficiency and demand factor will gradually become the main driving forces in most regions in the future.

Key words: gravity center of natural gas consumption, LMDI, resident, Shapley value

中图分类号: 

  • F426.22