关键词: IAD延伸决策模型, 耕地休养, 农户意愿, 土地管理, 休养规则

Abstract: The large-scale decline of cultivated land resources in China has become a serious threat to the sustainable development. Land fallow can effectively improve the quality of farmland and repair the ecological environment, and it is an important means to optimize the allocation and utilization of cultivated land resources in many countries and regions. Land fallow is a systematic project, which needs to be carried out at the national level for the overall planning of space and time sequence. The study on the farmers’ willingness and preference of the rule can effectively reduce the system cost. Based on the extension framework of Elinor Ostrom IAD model, we designed the variable system of farmers’ willingness for land fallow. The results of binary Logistic regression model with the 2015 survey data of 1 004 farmers indicated that farmers’ willingness for land fallow was influenced by household characteristics, procedures and rules, market environment and cognitive reform. Farmers would not agree with land fallow for the reason of their dependence on the land. As for procedures and rules, we found that farmers would like to sacrifice a certain degree of land to obtain higher subsidies or lower the difficulty of obtaining subsidies. The Logistic regression showed significant difference in the variables between farmers who had at least abandoned land once and who had never abandoned land, especially in their preference for rules. The farmers who had ever abandoned land tended to adopt the rules with high degrees of decision-making freedom and low government regulation, while the farmers who had never abandoned land preferred high subsidies. However, the classification results showed that both groups of farmers did not favor coercive rules. In addition, the higher the scale of the non-agricultural production and the more yearn for urban life, the higher the probability was that the farmers who had abandoned land agreed to land fallow, and the more land subcontracted, the lower the probability they agree to land fallow. As for the farmers who had never abandoned land, the higher their income were and the more they were satisfied with farmland policy, the higher the probability of their agreeing to land fallow was. As the distance of their land to the city center increase, the probability of their agreeing to land fallow decreased. To further discuss in the IAD context, the rules represented by multivariate model could protect the land quality effectively, but in the long run the government should pay attention to the difference between players, and allow farmers to participate in making relevant rules optionally, so as to promote the sustainability of land fallow.

Key words: farmers’, IAD extension model, land administration, land fallow, rules of land fallow, willingness