自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 620-631.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160299

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于熵信息扩散理论的中国农业水旱灾害风险评估

李孟刚, 周长生, 连莲   

  1. 北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-21 修回日期:2016-05-27 出版日期:2017-04-20 发布日期:2017-04-20
  • 作者简介:李孟刚(1967- ),男,山东滨洲人,教授,博士,博士生导师,研究方向为产业经济学。E-mail:morganli@vip.sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    教育部专项资助项目(B09C1100020); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(B15JB00510)

Agricultural Flood and Drought Risk Assessment in China Based on Entropy Information Diffusion Theory

LI Meng-gang, ZHOU Chang-sheng, LIAN Lian   

  1. China Center for Industrial Security Research, Beijing JiaotongUniversity, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2016-03-21 Revised:2016-05-27 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
  • Supported by:

    Special Fund Project of Ministry of Education, No.B09C1100020; Special Fund Project of the Basic Scientific Research Operating Expenses for Central Colleges and University, No.B15JB00510

摘要:

农业水旱灾害是制约中国农业生产的重要因素。针对信息扩散理论模型存在的不足,论文构建了评估中国农业水旱灾害风险的熵信息扩散理论模型,依据1985—2013年数据资料,运用熵信息扩散理论模型对中国大陆30个省、市、自治区(重庆包含在四川中计算)的农业水旱灾害进行了风险评估,根据农业水旱灾害风险评估结果对中国农业水旱灾害风险进行了综合对比分析。评估和分析结果表明:中国面临着较大的农业水旱灾害风险压力;中国农业旱灾风险明显大于农业水灾风险;农业水旱灾害空间风险特征明显;农业水灾高中风险区域主要集中在长江中下游地区和东北地区,农业旱灾高风险区域主要集中在中国北部地区和东北地区,总体上看,中国农业水旱灾害的空间分布格局是南方地区易出现水灾,而北部地区易出现旱灾,东北地区面临水旱灾害重叠的双重压力。

关键词: 风险评估, 旱灾, 农业, 熵信息扩散理论, 水灾

Abstract:

Agricultural flood and drought are the major factors that constrain the agricultural production in China. In view of the deficiency of information diffusion theory model, an entropy information diffusion theory model for agricultural flood and drought risk assessment was built in this paper, and a case was taken which verified that the entropy information diffusion theory model is superior to the information diffusion theory model in the aspect of estimation results. Then, the entropy information diffusion theory model is employed to assess the risk of agricultural flood and drought in the 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of the mainland of China (Chongqing city is contained in Sichuan Province) based on the data gathered during the period of 1985-2013, and a comprehensive comparative analysis is conducted on the agricultural flood and drought risks in China based on the assessment result. According to the evaluation and the analysis, China is faced with serious agricultural flood and drought risk; the agricultural drought risk is obviously higher than the agricultural flood risk in China; agricultural flood and drought risks exhibit a remarkable spatial pattern; the high and medium risk area of agricultural flood are mainly found in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Northeast China, while the high risk area of agricultural drought disaster are mainly observed in the northern part of China and Northeast China. According to the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural floods and droughts in China, the southern part of China is susceptible to flood, the northern part of China is susceptible to drought, and Northeast China is faced with the overlapped effect of flood and drought.

Key words: agriculture, drought, entropy information diffusion theory, flood, risk assessment

中图分类号: 

  • S42