中国木材产业发展的阶段识别及时空分异特征

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160227

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文基于产业生命周期理论及探索性空间数据分析方法,运用1954—2014年各省木材产量数据对中国木材产业的发展阶段以及时空格局变化规律展开了分析。研究表明：1） Gompertz模型显示木材产业处于产业生命周期的成长阶段;2）探索性空间数据分析显示木材产业具有明显的地域转移趋势和显著的区域聚集特征,尤其在2000年以后,南方集体林区逐渐形成了木材生产“热点”;3）根据重心模型显示的移动轨迹,可以将木材产业发展分为三个时期,即经济驱动时期、经济驱动与生态驱动相持时期、生态驱动时期,木材产业的时空格局演变是这两种驱动力量相对均衡的结果。根据研究结论,提出了重视森林资源培育、适时放开采伐限额、由行政监督向购买社会服务转变等促进木材产业发展的建议。

关键词: 产业发展阶段, 木材产业, 探索性空间数据分析

Abstract: Stable supply of timber is necessary to maintain international market share of timber forest products. As the largest exporter of timber forest products, China faces the challenge that the supply of the timber reduces continuously in recent years. Facing the complex and volatile situation, it’s of critical significance for China to make corresponding policy and long-term planning. Based on industry life cycle theory and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), this paper researched the development stages and spatial distribution characteristics of timber industry using provincial timber yield data from 1954 to 2014. The data were collected from China Forestry Statistical Yearbook. Gompertz model was applied to measure the stages of timber industry development, and ESDA methods including space Gini coefficient, local Getis-Ord index and center-of-gravity approach were applied to show the temporal and spatial change of timber industry. The results are as follows: 1) Gompertz model [lnQ_t=8.763 2+0.950 1^t× (-1.077 6)] showed China’s timber industry is in the growth phase of cyclical fluctuation. 2) ESDA showed significant regional transferring trend and regional gathering characteristics of the industry. Especially after 2000, the local Getis-Ord index showed that the collective forest area in South China became the hot spot of timber production. 3) According to center-of-gravity approach, the gravity center of the industry migrated from Northeast China to Southwest China during the last 60 years. And it could be divided into three periods according to the driving forces of timber industry development, economy-drive stage (1954-1978), stalemate stage of economy-drive and ecology-drive (1978-2000) and ecology-drive stage (since 2000). The spatiotemporal evolution of timber industry can be seen as the result of the balance between economic force and ecology force. According to the research results, some suggestions were given, such as giving priority to the cultivation of forest resources, releasing the quota policy, and turning to social services instead of administrative supervision.

Key words: development stage, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), timber industry

中图分类号:

F426.88

杨超, 程宝栋, 谢屹, 宋维明. 中国木材产业发展的阶段识别及时空分异特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2): 235-244.

YANG Chao, CHENG Bao-dong, XIE Yi, SONG Wei-ming. Development Stage and Spatiotemporal Evolution of China’s Timber Industry[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(2): 235-244.

参考文献

[1] 程宝栋, 印中华. 中国对非木材产业梯度转移问题分析 [J]. 国际贸易, 2014(3): 22-25. [CHENG B D, YIN Z H. An analysis timber industry gradient shift between China and Africa. Intertrade, 2014(3): 22-25. ]
[2] 许传德, 韩璐, 张学军. 新世纪以来我国木材进口情况分析及预测 [J]. 林业经济, 2015, 37(10): 48-52. [XU C D, HAN L, ZHANG X J. Analysis of China’s timber import since the new century. Forestry Economics, 2015, 37 (10): 48-52. ]
[3] 程宝栋. 我国木材安全分析与评价 [J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 11(5): 43-47. [CHENG B D. Analysis and evaluation of China' timber security. Journal of Northwest A&F University (Social Science Edition), 2011, 11(5): 43-47. ]
[4] 霍再强. 森林资源分布非均衡性及变化的经济学研究 [J]. 中国流通经济, 2006, 20(4): 27-30. [HUO Z Q. Resources allocation: The economic research on the imbalance and change of forest resources arrangement. China Business and Market, 2006, 20(4): 27-30. ]
[5] 程宝栋, 宋维明. 中国木材产业资源基础及可持续性分析 [J]. 林业资源管理, 2006(1): 20-24. [CHENG B D, SONG W M. Resource base evaluation and sustainability of China’s timber industry. Forest Resources Management, 2006(1): 20-24. ]
[6] 黄蓓, 王瑜. 林业产业集群竞争力研究 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(S1): 554-557. [HUANG B, WANG Y. Study on the competitiveness of industrial cluster in forestry industry. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(S1): 554-557. ]
[7] 张有峰, 宋维明. 区域森林资源与木材供给能力分析 [J]. 经济问题, 2014(5):103-107. [ZHANG Y F, SONG W M. Regional forest resources and timber supply capacity analysis. On Economic Problems, 2014(5): 103-107. ]
[8] MALECKI E J. Technology and economic development: The dynamics of local, regional, and national change [J]. Economic Geography, 1997, 62(3): 263-266.
[9] BOYDEN S, DAN B, SHEPPERD W. Spatial and temporal patterns in structure, regeneration, and mortality of an old-growth ponderosa pine forest in the Colorado front range [J]. Forest Ecology & Management, 2005, 219(1): 43-55.
[10] FOTI F, SPIRITO F, MANDOLESI L, et al. Effects of spatial food distribution on search behavior in rats ( Rattus norvegicus ) [J]. Journal of Comparative Psychology, 2007, 121(3): 290-299.
[11] SHIMADA M, ITOH T, MOTOOKA T, et al. New global forest/non-forest maps from ALOSPALSAR data (2007-2010) [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2014, 155: 13-31.
[12] MU J, LUO N, CHANG W, et al. Predicting and mapping the spatial distribution of Chamaecyparis formosensis in central Taiwan in a GIS with species distribution models [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(6): 325-331.
[13] VEDELSØRENSEN M, TOVARANONTE J, BØCHER P K, et al. Spatial distribution and environmental preferences of 10 economically important forest palms in western south America [J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2013, 307:284-292.
[14] NAVARRETE E, BUSTOS J. Faustmann optimal pine stands stochastic rotation problem [J]. Forest Policy and Economics, 2013, 30: 39-45.
[15] OZCELIK R, DIAMANTOPOULOU M J, CRECENTE-CAMPO F, et al. Estimating crimean juniper tree height using nonlinear regression and artificial neural network models [J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2013, 306: 52-60.
[16] RESTREPO H I, ORREGO S A. A comprehensive analysis of teak plantation investment in Colombia [J]. Forest Policy and Economics, 2015, 57: 31-37.
[17] TATSUMI S, OWARI T, YIN M, et al. Neighborhood analysis of under planted Korean pine demography in larch plantations: Implications for uneven-aged management in northeast China [J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2014, 322: 10-18.
[18] KIES U, MROSEK T, SCHULTE A. Spatial analysis of regional industrial clusters in the German forest sector [J]. International Forestry Review, 2009, 11(1): 38-51.
[19] VALBUENA R, EERIKÄINEN K, PACKALEN P, et al. Gini coefficient predictions from airborne lidar remote sensing display the effect of management intensity on forest structure [J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016, 60: 574-585.
[20] DUMAIS G, ELLISON G, GLAESER E L. Geographic concentration as a dynamic process [J]. Review of Economics & Statistics, 2002, 84(2): 193-204.
[21] GETIS A, ORD J K. The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics [J]. Geographical Analysis, 1992, 24(3):189-206.
[22] 潘竟虎, 张建辉, 胡艳兴. 近20a来甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量时空格局及其驱动力研究 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(1): 124-134. [PAN J H, ZHANG J H, HU Y X. Spatial-temporal pattern of per capital grain possession and its driving forces in Gansu Province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(1): 124-134. ]
[23] 李艳, 陈晓宏, 张鹏飞. 北江流域水文特征变异研究 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(5): 822-831. [LI Y, CHEN X H, ZHANG P F. Research of hydrological characteristic variation in Beijiang River Basin. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28 (5): 822-831. ]
[24] 秦光远. 中国木制品业集群形成的原因及路径分析 [J]. 现代管理科学, 2014(5): 54-57. [QIN G Y. Research on the forming reason and path of China's timber industry cluster. Modern Management Science, 2014(5): 54-57. ]
[25] 田淑英, 许文立. 基于DEA模型的中国林业投入产出效率评价 [J]. 资源科学, 2012, 34(10): 1944-1950. [TIAN S Y, XU W L. Evaluation of China’s forestry input-output efficiency based on DEA modeling. Resources Science, 2012, 34(10): 1944-1950. ]
[26] 陈幸良, 巨茜, 林昆仑. 中国人工林发展现状、问题与对策 [J]. 世界林业研究, 2014, 27(6): 54-59. [CHEN X L, JU Q, LIN K L. Development status, issues and countermeasures of China’s plantation. World Forestry Research, 2014, 27(6): 54-59. ]
[27] 尹航, 徐晋涛. 集体林区林权制度改革对木材供给影响的实证分析 [J]. 林业经济, 2010, 32(4): 27-30. [YIN H, XU J T. Empirical analysis of the influence of collective forest tenure reform on timber supply. Forestry Economics, 2010, 32 (4): 27-30. ]
[28] 张英, 宋维明. 集体林权制度改革对农户采伐行为的影响 [J]. 林业科学, 2012, 48(7): 161-169. [ZHANG Y, SONG W M. Effect of collective forest tenure reform on people's harvesting behaviors. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2012, 48(7): 161-169. ]
[29] 刁钢, 程宝栋, 宋维明. 中国森林资源与木材供给系统动力学模型 [J]. 生态经济, 2013, 29(12): 64-67. [DIAO G, CHENG B D, SONG W M. The system dynamics model of China’s forest resources and timber supply. Ecological Economy, 2013, 29(12): 64-67. ]
[30] 王磊, 周永东. 中国与欧洲国家制材工业的对比分析 [J]. 木材工业, 2013, 27(2): 20-24. [WANG L, ZHOU Y D. A comparison study between Chinese and selected European sawmilling industries. China Wood Industry, 2013, 27(2): 20-24. ]
[31] 何文剑, 张红霄, 徐静文. 森林采伐限额管理制度能否起到保护森林资源的作用: 一个文献综述 [J]. 中国农村观察, 2016(2): 84-93. [HE W J, ZHANG H X, XU J W. Can forest logging quota management system(FLQMS) protect forest resources? A literature review. China Rural Survey, 2016(2): 84-93. ]
[32] 沈义力. 江西林业投融资现状、存在问题及对策分析 [J]. 江西社会科学, 2012, 32(6): 79-83. [SHEN Y L. Investment situation, problems and countermeasures of timber industry in Jiangxi province. Jiangxi Social Science, 2012, 32(6): 79-83. ]
[33] 田明华, 张卫民, 陈建成. 我国森林采伐限额政策评价 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2003, 13(1): 120-122. [TIAN M H, ZHANG W M, CHEN J C. Policy evaluation on forest logging quota management system. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2003, 13(1): 120-122. ]
[34] 管志杰, 公培臣. 中国林业对外投资区域选择:可持续发展的视角 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2015, 29(6): 20-24. [GUAN Z J, GONG P C. Regional selection of foreign investment of Chinese forestry companies: The aspect of sustainable development. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2015, 29(6): 20-24. ]