气候变化对淮河流域水量水质影响分析

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160184

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化对水量水质的影响是气候变化与水研究领域热点和难点问题之一,尤其是对水质的影响。论文以淮河中上游流域为例,利用德国马普研究所的气候模式（MPI）情景数据驱动已率定好的分布式水量水质耦合模型,模拟和分析了未来近期（2020年代）和中长期（2030年代）气候变化对流域出口断面水量水质过程、产流系数和污染空间分布的影响。此外,基于历史典型重大突发性水污染事件时期极端降水的时空分布特征,推测未来可能发生突发性水污染事件的频率和时间。研究表明：1）温室气体中等排放A1B情景下,相比于基准年（1990年代）,流域降水呈下降趋势,但气温增幅近2 ℃,势必导致出口断面径流量明显减少和流域蒸散发增加,也导致入河非点源负荷减少;此外气温升高导致水体污染负荷降解速率加快,因此出口断面的污染负荷也有所减少。2）从空间分布来看,未来流域产流系数将有所降低。受气候变化影响较高的地区为沙颍河上游和涡河上游地区。受产流系数降低的影响,流域水污染发生率将有所上升,影响较高的区域位于洪汝河上游、沙颍河上游和贾鲁河等水系。3）在排污水平和闸坝调度规则不变的情况下,2020年代和2030年代重大突发性水污染事件预测可能发生时间为2035年7月,约为20 a一遇,低于基准期间约3~4 a一遇。总的来说,相比于基准年,气候变化对淮河中上游流域未来水量水质的影响适中。

关键词: SWAT模型, 淮河流域, 水量水质, 突发水污染事件, 气候变化

Abstract: The impact of climate change on watershed water quantity and quality is one of the hot and difficult issues in the research field of climate change and water, especially the impact on water quality. In this study, the well-calibrated distributed water quantity and quality model was used to assess the impact of climate change in the Huaihe River Basin based on the daily precipitation and temperature data in climate scenarios generated through climate models. The spatial and temporal variations of water quantity and quality were simulated in the reference period (1990s) and future periods (2020s and 2030s). The impact of climate change on monthly water quantity and quality processes at the outlet of middle and upper stream of Huaihe River Basin, and the spatial distribution of runoff and pollution coefficients were analyzed. In addition, based on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation during the specified paroxysmal water pollution incidents, the frequency and time of possible paroxysmal water pollution incidents in the future were deduced. Results showed that: 1) The precipitation of the whole basin decreased in the A1B scenario of MPI model, while the temperature increased obviously with an extent of nearly 2 ^oC, leading to increasing evapotranspiration inevitably. Thus, the runoff magnitude at the outlet would decrease remarkably. The increasing of temperatures would increase the degradation of water pollution loads, and the decreasing of precipitation would also lead to a reduction of non-point source loads into the river, so the pollution load at the outlet would decrease. 2) In the perspective of spatial distribution, the average runoff coefficient would decrease in the future. The upstream regions of Shaying River and Guohe River would be highly affected by climate change. Due to the reduction of runoff coefficient, not only the frequency of water pollution in the basin would rise, but also the distribution of the contaminated areas would change. The most affected regions locate in the upstream regions of Hongru River, Shaying River and Jialu River. 3) If the pollutant emission level and operation rules of dams and sluices keep changed, the specified paroxysmal water pollution incident would happen in July 2035 during the periods of 2020s and 2030s, and its occurrence frequency would be about 20 years, which is much lower than the occurrence frequency of 3-4 years in the reference period. In conclusion, the impact of future climate change on water quantity and quality in the Middle and Upper Huaihe River Basin would be moderate. The study is expected to provide scientific and technical supports for adapting water pollution prevention to climate change in the Huaihe River Basin, as well as provide a certain reference for the impact assessment of climate change on water quantity and quality at the basin scale.

Key words: Huaihe River Basin, specified paroxysmal water pollution incident, SWAT, water quantity and quality, climate change

中图分类号:

P333.1

张永勇, 花瑞祥, 夏瑞. 气候变化对淮河流域水量水质影响分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1): 114-126.

ZHANG Yong-yong, HUA Rui-xiang, XIA Rui. Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Water Quantity andQuality in the Huaihe River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(1): 114-126.

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