关键词: 大气环境效应, 工业结构调整, 环境规制, 山东省, 新常态

Abstract: Environmental regulation is the important means to promote industrial structure adjustment and improve the ecological environment. As a big province of heavy industries, Shandong Province was faced with triple pressure of “structure adjustment, steady growth, environmental protection” in the process of industrial structure adjustment under the new normal. This paper explored the influence of environmental regulation on industrial structure adjustment and atmospheric environment effects in Shandong Province under the new normal by using dynamic panel system GMM estimation method, LMDI decomposition model, historical value constraint extrapolation simulation and linear programming model. The conclusions were as follows. Firstly, the proportion of industries in Shandong Province increased at first and then decreased, and the proportion of pollution intensive industries decreased at first and increased subsequently from 2001 to 2013 in Shandong Province. The environmental regulation intensities of both were on the rise. Secondly, the influence coefficients of environmental regulation on the proportions of industries, pollution intensive industries and new and high technology industries were respectively -0.043, -0.451 and 0.523 in Shandong Province. This showed that the implementation of the environmental regulation had positive effects on the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial internal structure in Shandong Province. Thirdly, with the increasing of environmental regulation intensity, the industrial structure effect and the technical efficiency effect restrained the air pollutant emissions. The structure effect of pollution intensive industries was the main reason of the emissions reduction, but the absolute reductions resulting from it was little. Fourthly, comparing the predicted results in different scenarios, the potentials of industrial structure adjustment and air pollutants emission reduction in Shandong Province under the new normal increased in the order of easing environmental regulation, appropriate environmental regulation and strict environmental regulation. It is important to note that industrial structure adjustment of Shandong Province is more advantageous to the sustainable development of social economy under appropriate environmental regulation. The research will provide certain reference and guidance for the formulation of the industrial policy and environmental policy in Shandong Province.

Key words: atmospheric environment effect, environmental regulation, industrial structure adjustment, Shandong Province, the new normal