南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素实证分析

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20151046

自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 1540-1552.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20151046

南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素实证分析

朱红根^{1, 2}, 康兰媛^{2, *}, 周曙东³

1. 南京财经大学营销与物流管理学院,南京 210023；
2. 江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌 330045；
3. 南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京 210095

收稿日期:2015-09-28 修回日期:2016-04-17 出版日期:2016-09-20 发布日期:2016-09-20
作者简介:朱红根（1976- ）,男,江西人,教授,管理学博士,主要从事资源环境经济、农业经济研究。E-mail: zhgen2004@163.com
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目（13&ZD160）; 国家自然科学基金项目（41361007,41261106）; 江西省社科规划项目（11YJ36）; 赣鄱英才“555”工程项目

The Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Adaptation Behavior to Seasonal Drought in Southern Rice GrowingArea and Its Influencing Factors

ZHU Hong-gen^{1, 2}, KANG Lan-yuan², ZHOU Shu-dong³

1. School of Marketing and Logistics Management, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. School of Economic and Management, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;
3. School of Economic and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received:2015-09-28 Revised:2016-04-17 Online:2016-09-20 Published:2016-09-20
Supported by:
Important Social Science Foundation of China, No.13&ZD160; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41361007 and 41261106; Social Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province, No.11YJ36; GanPo Outstanding Person“555”Project

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候异常给我国粮食生产带来的影响成为当前社会各界关注的焦点。受全球气候变暖影响,大范围持续性干旱成为农业生产的最严重威胁,特别是近年来南方稻区季节性干旱问题日趋严重,已严重危害到我国经济社会的和谐健康发展。因此,如何适应季节性干旱已成为当前全社会普遍关注的话题,农户作为农业生产的微观决策主体,其适应季节性干旱行为选择如何,其影响因素有哪些?此问题的解决是实现科学减灾的前提和基础。因此,论文利用南方稻区江西省41个县755份农户调查样本数据,从理论与实证上分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素,统计结果表明：面对季节性干旱时,68.6%的农户会采取相应的适应行为,并且补种（苗）、改种其他作物、调整播种和收获日期是农户最优先考虑采用的适应措施,而资金和劳力是农户采取适应行为措施最主要的限制因素。利用Probit回归模型、Poisson回归模型和Tobit回归模型实证分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为措施选择、采用规模和采用强度的影响因素,计量结果表明：社区资本、干旱发生频率、防灾信息的可获性等因素对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有正向影响,而所在村距最近公路远近和所处的地形特征对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有负向影响。因此,需要进一步丰富社区资本、加强农户防灾信息可获性以及加强交通基础设施建设等方面以促进农户采纳适应措施的积极性。

关键词: 季节性干旱, 南方稻区, 农户, 适应行为

Abstract: The impact of climate change on food production in China has become the focus of public attention. Affected by global warming, wide range of continuous drought has become the most serious threat to agricultural production. In recent years, seasonal drought in the southern China became more and more serious, which has seriously harmed the development of the society and economy in our country. Therefore, how to adapt to seasonal drought has become a common concerned topic of the whole society. As the subject of micro decision-making in agricultural production sector, farmers play an important role in choosing adaptive behaviors to seasonal drought, so study on farmers' behaviors and their influence factors is the precondition and foundation to scientifically reduce the disaster. Based on the survey data of 755 households in 41 counties of Jiangxi Province, we analyzed farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and the influencing factors from theoretical and empirical perspectives of view. The statistical results show that 68.6% of the farmers will take corresponding behaviors when facing the seasonal drought, that replanting (seedling), switching to other crops, and adjusting the sowing and harvest dates are the most preferred adaptive measures of farmers, while the capital and labor force are the most important limiting factors for farmers to choose adaptive measures. By using Probit regression model, Poisson regression model and Tobit regression model, this paper empirically analyzed the impact factors of farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and their relations with the scale and intensity of the behaviors. The results show that social capital, drought occurrence frequency, and the availability of disaster prevention information have positive effects on framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors, while the distance to the nearest highway has negatively effect on the framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors.

Key words: farmer, adaptive behavior, rice growing area in southern China, seasonal drought

中图分类号:

S162

朱红根, 康兰媛, 周曙东. 南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素实证分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(9): 1540-1552.

ZHU Hong-gen, KANG Lan-yuan, ZHOU Shu-dong. The Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Adaptation Behavior to Seasonal Drought in Southern Rice GrowingArea and Its Influencing Factors[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2016, 31(9): 1540-1552.

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南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Adaptation Behavior to Seasonal Drought in Southern Rice GrowingArea and Its Influencing Factors

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