自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7): 1127-1137.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20150932

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于结构方程模型的京津冀城市用地行政边界效应分析

王成龙1, 2, 3, 刘慧1, 2*, *, 张梦天1, 2, 3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-28 修回日期:2016-01-30 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:王成龙(1988- ),男,山东淄博人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域发展。E-mail:wclzsdkjdx@126.com *通信刘慧(1964- ),女,陕西兴平人,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事区域发展研究。E-mail:liuh@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71441036)

The Analysis of Border Effect of Urban Land Based on Structural Equation Modeling: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration

WANG Cheng-long1, 2, 3, LIU Hui1, 2, ZHANG Meng-tian1, 2, 3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-08-28 Revised:2016-01-30 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71441036

摘要: 行政边界如何影响城市用地规模?论文以京津冀为研究案例,基于结构方程构建5个时段(1990、1995、2000、2005、2010年)的城市用地行政边界效应模型,揭示行政边界影响下城市用地的扩张机理和演化特征。研究结果表明:行政边界对城市用地规模的直接影响效应不显著;行政边界通过对经济、人口等中间要素的影响间接作用于城市用地的扩张过程;1990—2010年的5个时间节点,京津冀城市用地行政边界效应的间接影响要素中,财政支出和非农业人口的主导作用明显,社会固定资产、实际利用外资和职工平均工资也在不同阶段发挥了不可忽视的作用;在社会经济发展水平较低、市场化和区域一体化滞后的阶段,社会固定资产是行政边界影响城市用地规模的重要间接要素,而在要素流动较为频繁的时期,实际利用外资和职工平均工资成为构筑在行政边界和城市用地规模间不可忽视的中间要素。本研究可为京津冀城市用地的理性扩张和城市开发边界的划定提供理论支持和政策建议。

关键词: 城市用地, 结构方程模型, 京津冀, 行政边界

Abstract: How the administrative boundary influences the urban land-use scale? Quoting the study case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, we build the border effect model of urban land based on the structural equation model. In the process of developing the model, we select economic factors, industry factors, population factors, the administrative elements and urban land as the latent variables, then the fitted models are constructed according to the indexes’ values of the year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Based on the built model, the mechanism and evolution process of urban land expansion under the border effect is revealed. The results show that: Firstly, the administrative boundary has no significant direct effect on the urban land-use scale; secondly, the administrative boundary has indirect influence on the process of urban land expansion, the indirect effects including the economic factors, population elements and other factors; thirdly, according to the measuring values at five time nodes (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010), the financial expenses and non-agricultural population play a leading role in the indirect influence of the administrative boundary on the expansion of the urban land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration. The social fixed assets, the actual utilization of foreign invest-ment and the average wages also play an important role in different periods. The final but not the least point is that the social fixed assets is a pivotal indirect element when the socio-economic development is in the low-level, while the important role of the actual utilization of foreign investment and the average wages cannot be denied in the urban land-use border effect when the social and economic elements flow is frequent and efficient. Based on this study, the theoretical support and policy recommendations can be provided for rational expansion of urban land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration and delineation of the urban development boundary.

Key words: administrative boundary, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, structural equation modeling, urban land

中图分类号: 

  • F299.27