• 资源评价 •

### 西藏地区水电开发的低碳效益评价

1. 环境保护部南京环境科学研究所,南京 210042
• 收稿日期:2015-08-27 修回日期:2016-03-11 出版日期:2016-08-20 发布日期:2016-08-20
• 作者简介:赵卫（1981- ）,男,山东枣庄人,博士,副研究员,主要从事气候变化生态响应与应对研究。E-mail:zhaowei-china@163.com *通信作者简介：沈渭寿（1957- ）,男,甘肃景泰人,博士,研究员,主要从事生态保护与气候变化响应研究。E-mail:shenweishou@163.com
• 基金资助:
国家环保公益性行业科研专项（201209032）; 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项（2013012）

### Assessment on Low-carbon Effects of Hydropower Development in Tibet, China

ZHAO Wei, SHEN Wei-shou, LI Hai-dong

1. Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210042, China
• Received:2015-08-27 Revised:2016-03-11 Online:2016-08-20 Published:2016-08-20
• Supported by:
State Environmental Protection Commonweal Special Program of China, No.201209032; Basic Research Foundation of National Commonweal Research Institute, No.2013012

Abstract: Hydropower development and outward transmission in Tibet play a vital role in optimization of energy resource configuration and reduction of CO2 emission in China. The low-carbon effects of hydropower development in Tibet were assessed, and fossil fuel consumption reduction and CO2 reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were analyzed based on net coal consumption rate, CO2 emission coefficient and its dynamic change of fossil-fired power generation in different power grids. The results show that: 1) The fossil fuel consumption reduction and the CO2 reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet have significant variations. During the period from 2006 to 2012, the fossil fuel consumption reduction and the CO2 reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were the most in 2011. 2) The fossil fuel consumption reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were different significantly with different net coal consumption rates of fossil-fired power generation. The fossil fuel consumption reduction achieved by hydropower development according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in Central China power grid (CCPG) was the most, the fossil fuel consumption reduction according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in Northwest China power grid (NCPG) and Tibet power grid (TPG) took the second and the third place respectively, and the fossil fuel consumption reduction according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in national power grid (NPG) was the least. 3) According to different CO2 emission levels of fossil-fired power generation, the CO2 reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were also different. Among them, the CO2 reduction achieved by hydropower development according to CO2 emission level of fossil-fired power generation in TPG was the most, the CO2 reduction of hydropower development according to CO2 emission level of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG and CCPG took the second and the third place respectively. 4) The fossil fuel consumption reduction potential and the CO2 reduction potential achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were outstanding. According to net coal consumption rates of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG, CCPG, TPG and NPG, the fossil fuel consumption reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet in 2030 would be more than 75% of total fossil fuel consumption (1.379×108 tec) of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG in 2012. Among the CO2 reduction potentials according to different CO2 emission levels, the CO2 reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet according to CO2 emission level of fossil-fired power generation in CCPG would be the least, but more than the carbon dioxide emissions of fossil fuel consumption in Argentina, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries in 2013.

• X820.3