中国大陆水资源强度的收敛特征检验：基于省际面板数据的实证

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20150599

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 文章从水资源与居民生活、生产及生态环境等要素构成的复合系统视角,借鉴能源强度概念内涵界定了水资源强度、水资源相对强度概念及其内涵,并提出相应表征方法,在此基础上依据有关用水部门的面板数据对2003—2013年中国大陆地区的省际水资源强度收敛特征进行了实证检验。结果表明：1）省际居民生活用水及农业用水强度差异变化相对平稳,σ-收敛趋势不明显;工业用水强度经历了“发散—平稳—收敛”的演变趋势;生态用水强度的σ-收敛趋势波动较大,且整体收敛速度较快,省际差异迅速缩小;2）大陆80%以上的省区4个用水部门的水资源相对强度受到的正面影响是持续的,整体未受短期冲击效应影响,故不具备全局性的随机收敛特征;3）4用水部门水资源强度具备绝对β-收敛特征,收敛速度分别为3.17%（居民生活用水）、4.21%（农业用水）、1.82%（工业用水）和12.41%（生态用水）;4）东部省区生态用水强度呈俱乐部收敛趋势,西部省区居民生活用水和生态用水具备俱乐部收敛特征,中部省区的4用水部门均呈俱乐部收敛趋势;5）4用水部门均存在条件β-收敛特征,其中：显著驱动居民生活用水、工业用水及生态用水强度收敛的因素分别是第三产业比重、工业废水达标率和年降水量,而显著制约三者收敛的因素则分别为进出口总额、人均国民生产总值及工业废水达标率。

关键词: 计量经济模型, 收敛, 水资源强度, 中国大陆, 资源科学

Abstract: Aimed at comprehensive evaluation on water resources utilization efficiency of each water sector in mainland China, this paper, referencing the connotation of energy intensity, defined the concept of water resource intensity, water resource relative intensity from the viewpoint of compound system. With the panel data of water sectors, the convergence trait of water resource intensity in mainland China from 2003 to 2013 was tested. The results showed that the inter provincial variations of residential water intensity and agricultural water intensity were smooth and steady, showing no obvious σ-convergence; the industrial water intensity showed the trend of divergences-steady-converges; the σ-convergence of eco-environmental water intensity fluctuated greatly but the convergence rate was big and the inter provincial differences narrowed rapidly. Water resources relative intensity in 80% provinces of mainland China received continuous positive influence. They were not influenced by the short-term impact and did not show stochastic convergence trait. Water resource intensity of each water sector showed β-absolute convergence. Convergence rate was 3.17% (for residential water), 4.21% (for agricultural water), 1.82% (for industrial water) and 12.41% (for eco-environmental water), respectively. Eco-environmental water intensity in eastern China, residential water and eco-environmental water intensity in western China, and water resource intensity of all the water sectors in the middle showed club convergence. The β-conditional convergence occurred in all the water sectors. The major driving forces on the convergence of residential water, industrial water and eco-environmental water were proportion of tertiary industrial, standard reaching-rate of industrial wastewater discharge and annual precipitation, respectively. The major restrict factors on convergence of residential water, industrial water and eco-environmental water were total export-import volume, GNP per capita and standard reaching-rate of industrial wastewater discharge, respectively.

Key words: convergence, econometric model, mainland China, resources science, water resource intensity

中图分类号:

F062.1

臧正,邹欣庆. 中国大陆水资源强度的收敛特征检验：基于省际面板数据的实证[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6): 920-935.

ZANG Zheng, ZOU Xin-qing. Test on Convergence Trait of Water Resource Intensity in Mainland China: An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data at Provincial Level[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2016, 31(6): 920-935.

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