Abstract: Due to limited arable land, the conflict between arable land exploitation and ecological land protection is more and more serious. In this context, the requisition-compensation balance of arable land faces significant hurdles. One innovative option to protect arable land is transforming requisition-compensation balance of arable land quantity into requisition-compensation balance of arable land production capacity by improving the quality of arable land. On account of forward-looking consideration of policy and technical reserves, this paper tries to offer a method system for potential evaluation of requisition-compensation balance of arable land production capacity in the planning period based on quality improvement of arable land at county level. The method system built here is based on farmland gradation, general land use planning, and detailed land use survey data, combining with GIS spatial analysis technology. Taking Pingyang County as an example, the applicability of this method system is verified. The study result indicated that: from 2011 to 2020, the production capacity of arable land would lose 19 227.82 t owing to land occupation by construction, and would add 23 104.03 t through arable land consolidation, thus the index number of potential balance of arable land production capacity is 120.16%. Therefore, the method system built in this paper is proved to be well-founded and easy to put into practice,which provides a necessary technological support for formulating and implementing policies on requisition-compensation balance of arable land production capacity.