基于能值分析法的绿色GDP核算研究——以陕西省商洛市为例

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.09.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

论文基于Odum创立的生态经济系统能值理论和方法,对2003—2012年商洛市绿色GDP进行定量核算。核算结果如下：① 2003—2012年商洛市传统GDP分别在1.12×10⁹~ 6.72×10⁹美元之间,绿色GDP分别在9.80×10⁸~ 3.35×10⁹美元之间,各年度绿色GDP占GDP比重在49.85%~ 87.50%之间;② 自2003年以来,商洛市经济增长对自然资源（包括不可更新环境资源与不可更新资源产品）及环境资源价值消耗的持续增长,造成10 a间绿色GDP发生了很大程度的变化,各年度对自然资源价值消耗占GDP的比重处于6.55%~31.77%之间,各年度环境资源价值损耗占GDP的比重处于5.18%~24.39%之间,其中2008、2009年环境资源价值损耗对绿色GDP核算的影响大于自然资源损耗对绿色GDP核算的影响,其余年份均是自然资源的损耗大于环境资源的损耗;③ 输入资源包括从外部输入的汽油、柴油、化肥、农药等,对绿色GDP核算的影响较小,各年度占GDP比重保持在0.83%~1.30%之间。绿色GDP核算结果表明：近年来商洛市的经济发展存在两个方面的问题,第一是经济增长严重依赖于对资源（包括自然资源和输入资源）的消耗,第二是商洛市经济增长造成了对环境的严重污染。因此商洛市经济发展的模式是不可持续的,如果继续延续这种依赖资源和环境的发展模式,就会使当地经济陷入恶性循环的怪圈。

Abstract:

In recent years, the rising environmental loading ratio indicates an increasing pressure of economic activities on the environment, and the economic development achieved at the cost of over-exploitation of resources and environment deterioration. The development of regional economy is becoming a sharp contradiction with ecological environment and resources conservation. In some regions, economic issues and environmental problems have become major social focus. We have been using GDP to measure the level of economic development for a long time. However, economic growth cannot be achieved without the consumption of resources and environment. It is necessary to explore a method that can correctly measure the relationship between the economic development (including the quality and quantity of economic development) and the resource and environment consumption. This will make a great contribution to the protection of resources and environment. Currently, there are lots of researches of Green GDP, and some countries have gradually built up resource checking account, but the accounting methods of Green GDP are not uniform, and the accounting system has some defects. This paper provides an integrated study on the Green GDP account for Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2012 based on Emergy Synthesis Theory. An emergy-based multiple spatial scale analysis framework and a rigorous accounting method that can quantify the values of human-made and natural capital losses were proposed in this study. The advantage of Emergy Theory Method is that it has unified dimension measuring unit for natural and environmental resource, and there are more index range can be selected to expand. The green GDP accounting tends to be more accurate, more reasonable and scientific. According to Odum’s emergy theory and method of economic system, we conduct a research on quantitative Green GDP accounting for Shangluo City from 2003 to 2012. We find: 1) The GDP values of Shangluo from 2003 to 2012 are between 1.12×109 and 6.72×109 $; the green GDP in the same years are in the range of 9.80×108-3.35×109 $; and green GDP/GDP (%) are at 49.85%-87.50%. 2) From 2003 to 2012, along with the development of economy in Shangluo City, the consumption of natural resources and environment resources increased quickly, resulting the green GDP varied greatly from 2003 to 2012. The annual consumption of environmental resources accounted for 5.18%-24.39% of GDP, and the effect of the environmental resources value loss is greater than that of the loss of natural resource on the green GDP accounting in 2008 and 2009, while it is on the contrary in the rest of the years. 3) Input resources, include petrol, diesel oil, chemical fertilizer, pesticide etc, have little effect on the green GDP accounting, accounting 0.83%-1.30% of GDP every year. In short, because of the excessive dependence on resources and the environment, the economic development model of Shangluo is not sustainable, which will get the local economy into a vicious spiral. In addition, green GDP accounting based on Emergy Theory shows great advantage, and regional transmission of various ecological flows is one of the biggest challenges in further studying.

中图分类号:

X196

郭丽英, 雷敏, 刘晓琼. 基于能值分析法的绿色GDP核算研究——以陕西省商洛市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(9): 1523-1533.

A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province. Green GDPAccounting Research Based on Emergy Analysis Method: A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2015, 30(9): 1523-1533.

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