宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.09.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000—2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明：2000—2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km²,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km²,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km²,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论：大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。

Abstract:

Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Area along the Yellow River (NIMAYR) belongs to China??s fast urbanizing region, and it locates at arid and semi-arid region. The researches on urban land expansion in this area could enrich the theoretical studies on the mechanism of urban land expansion, and make realistic policy suggestion for urbanization in similar areas. Logistic Regression was employed to analyze the main driving force of the urban land expansion. Then urban land transfer matrix was obtained and coupled with CA-Markov, so Logistic-CA-Markov was finally set to simulate urban land expansion. Results showed that arable lands, grasslands, a few rural residential and mineral lands were three main sources of new urban land during 2000-2005. Main driving forces of expansion were the ratio of urban land in the neighborhood, annual precipitation, distance to the national highway, distance to the provincial road, distance to water land, and distance to arable, forest and grass lands. Three scenarios were set to simulate urban land change in 2016. In normal scenario, area of total urban land would be 997 km2, mainly around urbanized areas, including Hohhot, Baotou districts; in planning scenario, area of urban land would be 1525 km2, distributing as same pattern as in normal scenario; in ecological scenario, area of urban land would be 1480 km2, distributing along the main roads. Main conclusions were as follows. The peripheral areas of cities and areas along traffic lines were two main resources where extinct new urban areas generate. Scenario simulation of urban area change on whole NIMAYR showed that given total area of future urban land, distribution pattern of urban areas could be optimized by controlling other land use to transfer to urban land.

中图分类号:

F293.2

李俊, 董锁成, 李宇, 李泽红, 王隽妮. 宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(9): 1472-1485.

LI Jun, DONG Suo-cheng, LI Yu, LI Ze-hong, WANG Jun-ni. Driving Force Analysis and Scenario Simulation of Urban Land Expansion in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Area along the Yellow River[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2015, 30(9): 1472-1485.

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