自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1378-1390.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.08.012

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区域农业水土资源利用潜力估算方法——以河套灌区为例

南纪琴, 陶国通, 王景雷*, 刘战东   

  1. 中国农业科学院 农田灌溉研究所农业部作物需水与调控重点开放实验室,河南 新乡 453002
  • 收稿日期:2014-04-22 出版日期:2015-08-15 发布日期:2015-08-15
  • 作者简介:南纪琴(1983– ),女,陕西延安人,助理研究员,硕士,主要从事节水灌溉理论与新技术研究。E-mail:nanjiqin2006@163.com *通信作者简介:王景雷(1972– ),男,河南开封人,研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事节水灌溉及作物用水空间变异研究。E-mail:firiwjl@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD29B09); 国家现代玉米产业技术体系建设专项资金(nycytx-02); 国家“863”计划课题(2011AA100502)

Estimates of Agricultural Water and Soil Resources’ Utilization Potential—A Case Study on Hetao Irrigation Area

NAN Ji-qin, TAO Guo-tong, WANG Jing-lei, LIU Zhan-dong   

  1. Key Laboratory for Crop Water Requirement and Its Regulation, Ministry of Agriculture, Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453002, China
  • Received:2014-04-22 Online:2015-08-15 Published:2015-08-15

摘要: 基于目前农业水土资源潜力分别测算、相互割裂的实际情况,论文在限定农业水土资源匹配指数概念的基础上,综合考虑气候、种植结构和灌溉效率等的变化对区域需水的影响,提出了以水土资源匹配指数为核心的区域农业水土资源潜力估算方法,根据区域农业水土资源估算方法之需,构建了区域经济、社会、生态效益和水土资源匹配指数最优的多目标水土资源优化配置模型。以内蒙古河套灌区为例,选取2010年为现状年,估算了河套灌区2020、2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5两种情景下的农业水土资源利用潜力,实现了河套灌区水土资源利用潜力的可视化表达。结果表明2020和2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5排放情景下,河套灌区整体的经济效益、生态效益和综合效益都有所增加,社会效益有增有减,水土资源利用潜力均为正值,单位面积上的利用潜力值依次分别为:0.18×104、0.04×104、0.51×104、0.10×104元/hm2;同时除了解放闸灌域,其他各灌域的农业水土资源利用潜力均为正值,在0.31×104~8.24×104元之间,单位综合效益相对2010年均有所提高。

Abstract: Based on the current situations in calculating agricultural water and soil resource potential in a separated and discontinuous manner, this paper defined and constrained the conception of matching index of agricultural water and soil resource and comprehensively integrate factors related to climate, planting structure, and irrigation efficiency into a whole to evaluate the effects on regional water requirements. To resolve this problem, the paper put forward an innovative conception of calculating soil and water resources potentials, and created and defined the matching index of these two resources. Then, a multi-objective evaluation function and its constraints were used to evaluate the regional economic, ecological and social benefits. A case was studied in Hetao irrigated areas, taking 2010 as a baseline year. Comprehensive potentials and the optimal matching results of water and soil resources under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios in the predicted years of 2020 and 2030 were calculated respectively. Thus a visible expression of resources utilization potential was realized for the first time. Results under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios both in 2020 and 2030 showed significant increases in the economic, ecologic and integrated benefits, but social benefits were unstable. The utilization potentials of water and soil resources showed positive values, that was 0.18×104, 0.04×104, 0.51×104, and 0.10×104 yuan/hm2, respectively. At the meantime, except Jiefangzha Irrigated District, the other irrigated districts all had increases in soil and water utilization potentials compared to 2010, and the per unit integrated benefits were between 0.31×104-8.24×104 yuan/hm2.

中图分类号: 

  • S323.2