自然资源学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 963-973.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.06.007

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1961—2010年新疆生长季节指数时空变化特征及其农业响应

慈晖1,2, 张强1,2,3, 陈晓宏1,2, 江涛1,2   

  1. 1. 中山大学 水资源与环境系, 广州510275;
    2. 中山大学 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州510275;
    3. 宿州学院地球科学与工程学院, 安徽宿州234000
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-18 修回日期:2014-10-04 出版日期:2015-06-20 发布日期:2015-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 张强(1974-),男,山东沂水人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事流域气象水文学研究、旱涝灾害机理、流域地表水文过程及其对气候变化的响应机制与机理以及流域生态需水等领域的研究工作.Email:zhangq68@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:zhangq68@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:慈晖(1989-),女,甘肃临夏人,博士研究生,主要从事区域水文循环与水资源演变的研究工作.E-mail:cathyyyci@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903);新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目(201331104);安徽省“领军人才专项”项目;中山大学滨海小流域自然地理综合过程观测与实验平台建设(2012 年度).

Spatiotemporal Properties of Growing Season Indices and Their Impacts onAgricultural Production during 1961-2010 across Xinjiang

CI Hui1,2, ZHANG Qiang1,2,3, CHEN Xiao-hong1,2, JIANG Tao1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Suzhou University, Suzhou 234000, China
  • Received:2014-06-18 Revised:2014-10-04 Online:2015-06-20 Published:2015-06-20

摘要:

在定义生长季节长度(GSL)、生长季节开始时间(LSF)以及生长季节结束时间(FFF)三个生长季节指数的基础上,采用模糊聚类、稳健回归及Mann-Kendall 非参数检验等方法分析新疆1961—2010 年生长季节指数时空变化特征,并针对作物生长季节指数变化对区域农业生产的影响进行了深入探讨.结果表明:新疆20 世纪90 年代中期,GSL变化幅度很大,低纬地区生长季节受低温影响较小,而随纬度上升,中高纬地区生长季节受低温影响越大.生长季节长度的变化与秋季低温(生长季节结束时间)变化情况紧密相连,全疆生长季节长度在80%的保证率下,较多年平均生长季节长度缩短5~14 d.生长季节长度的延长,会导致净初级生产力以及年蒸散发总量上升,继而影响水文、生态系统以及生物地球化学过程.

关键词: 农业响应, 生长季节指数, 气象灾害, 新疆

Abstract:

Three growing season indices, the growing season length, the starting/ending time of the growing season were defined based on the daily minimum and the daily average temperature data across Xinjiang, China. Spatiotemporal properties of the growing season indices were analyzed using Fuzzy Clustering Technique, robust regressive method and nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test method. Besides, the implications of change of growing season indices on agricultural activities were discussed. The results indicate that there was a great change of growing season length in mid-1990s across Xinjiang. The agricultural activities in southern Xinjiang were not heavily influenced by the low temperature. However hazards were examined in the northern parts of Xinjiang. It is also found that the growing season length is in close relations with the occurrence of low temperature at the end of spring (before and after April) and in the early autumn (before and after October). The increase of the growing season length may improve the preliminary production and annual total evaporation, and it may further impact the hydrological, ecological and geochemical processes across Xinjiang. In this case, our study is of practical and theoretical merits in terms of planning and management of agricultural activities over Xinjiang, China.

Key words: growing season indices, Xinjiang, meteorological disasters, agricultural response

中图分类号: 

  • S161.2